Model Output Discussion - Into the new year

[phil nw.]

An early easterly now being modeled on both Op.runs.Not a classic but cold enough .

I am just thinking if things go according to plan what we would be looking at later on if the Siberian chunk of the vortex heads this way under a northern block.

 

Just musing....

[Mike Poole]

Just now, Cloud 10 said:

JMA 192hrs.

 

Iceland high!  ECM T192 not far off:

[Snowman.]

192.

Cold pushing into Europe via svalbard area 

[sheikhy]

What a 192 hour chart!!!!

[Drifter]

Just now, sheikhy said:

What a 192 hour chart!!!!

We could do with a top up of the cold pool though. 

[sheikhy]

Just now, Drifter said:

We could do with a top up of the cold pool though. 

It will come drifter!!!!slight differences between ecm and gfs but overall very similar!!!

[Snowman.]

1 minute ago, Drifter said:

We could do with a top up of the cold pool though. 

Patience is required here. You can see cold air via a low from svalbard pushing south, this will likely bring cold down into Europe and cutting off the warm feed of the high.

Pattern will retrogress slowly NW. As cold is filtered down from the NE. It will take some time however.

Edited December 27, 2020 by Snowman.

[Daniel*]

Boom...

[damianslaw]

Both GFS and ECM in synchronicity as we move through the rest of 2020 and into January 2021, the longwave trough slowly dissipating and filling in situ to an extent as heights build to our NE, these then merge with the mid atlantic heights to allow a colder NE feed to move in.

We see a rise in heights on 2 Jan to our NE up to 1020mb, which is just within the reliable.  What happens next unsure, GFS keen to retrogress the high towards Greenland. Not checked ECM.

Its been 11 years since we have had to look to our NE for likely direction of weather travel as we hit the New Year, what a refreshing change!

[Mark wheeler]

The Mighty Mighty Navgem 144 hrs 

[Penrith Snow]

Its December 7th 2031 and the GFS pub run is released, Netweather members are depressed as the Atlantic Zonal train sweeps across the UK with a strong Iberia High to the south. Its been like that for weeks with unrelenting rain and wind.

Members are giving up hope for winter 2031/32 until someone posts a chart from 7th December 2020 which looks very similar and reminds everyone how that historic winter didn't start till Christmas Eve and got colder and colder until 'The Great Freeze of 2021' struck in mid January.

With those wonderful memories swimming round in their heads Netweather members retired to bed happy  

OK I know, This is one off topic post that will be deleted  

[sebastiaan1973]

48 minutes ago, Catacol said:

Musing over. Best finish with a chart to  prevent me being subbed off. This 240h EPS mean is one of the best I have seen. Let the SSW take out the heights over SE Europe by mid month and we all better make sure we’ve found our hat and gloves.

I don't agree, and that's to do with the high pressure in the east of Europe. We just can't get really cold 850 hPa's. In large parts of Continental Europe it won't freeze (or just a little bit).

[Southern Storm]

Just now, Drifter said:

We could do with a top up of the cold pool though. 

Once we start pulling in those easterlies, it will be cold enough, when you cut off the Atlantic, the continent cools rapidly at this time of year

 Also, the models usually underestimate cold pools, so we should see upgrades 

We just need to avoid pulling warmer uppers from the med, which is a possibility, so cross those fingers and toes!

if they haven't succumbed to frostbite by then

[AWD]

2 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

Boom...

For perfection, we could do with the HP being a tad further north, ie the core over Iceland.

Still cold at the surface though.

[Tim Bland]

Re Easterly at end of ECM - Hopefully the DP come the time will be lower as it’s still showing rain. I guess it will cool down with time, so only a couple of days of marginal conditions before the colder air sets in? 

[North East Blizzard]

Best ensembles of the winter by a country mile today

 

Probs maxing out at  two degrees throughout, but under any snow cover I'd imagine it would be lower than that. 

Edited December 27, 2020 by North East Blizzard

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

GEM

 

Snow machine.  The Scandi heights really picked up now rather than the Greenland HP....but looking at this and ECM...GHP to follow.

 

Have to say, this cold set up arrived pretty much on cue, but I thought back in Sept and even in Nov and early Dec that we’d see quicker development and that by early Jan the Atlantic would start to dominate with a pM general flow north if west.  I’m thinking the models are possibly taking us down a road I thought was not viable (I thought Dec overall would be colder with sharper cold development for Xmas week, Jan would not be a stonker but average at the best and a cold Feb)....let’s keep this outlook going and get 1st 3rd of Jan really cold and go from there.

 

BFTP

[snowice]

5 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

Boom...

Steve Murr owns the patent for the Boom.lol.

[radiohead]

Finally some proper cold making an appearance on Day 10!

 

[Catacol]

4 minutes ago, sebastiaan1973 said:

I don't agree, and that's to do with the high pressure in the east of Europe. We just can't get really cold 850 hPa's. In large parts of Continental Europe it won't freeze (or just a little bit).

Which is why I said - let the SSW take away the heights from SE Europe (via vortex daughter incoming from the east we hope!) and then it will get colder...

[Mike Poole]

ECM T240 just sets up the high a little too far south for me, plenty of time for that to change, would be interested to see if it is supported by the ENS clusters later:

[Howie]

Hopefully the south east Euro high isn't so strong closer to the time

[NewEra21]

3 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Re Easterly at end of ECM - Hopefully the DP come the time will be lower as it’s still showing rain. I guess it will cool down with time, so only a couple of days of marginal conditions before the colder air sets in? 

If we don't get snow from such a setup, I'll be giving up on winter forever! 

[Allseasons-Si]

Just catching up as i had to nip out but that day chart from the ECM is marvelous

 

[Snowman.]

9 minutes ago, Snowman. said:

Patience is required here. You can see cold air via a low from svalbard pushing south, this will likely bring cold down into Europe and cutting off the warm feed of the high.

Pattern will retrogress slowly NW. As cold is filtered down from the NE. It will take some time however.

You can see it on the ECM as low heights drop into NE Europe, the high is shifting NW. If it was to continue you would see the low pressure systems continue to move clockwise round the high with it getting ever increasingly colder.