Model Output Discussion - Into the new year

[Allseasons-Si]

Blimey!!!,that high pressure is taking hold quicker over Iceland than the 12z.

Edited December 27, 2020 by Allseasons-si

[Paul]

In case anyone missed it last week, or would like to re-read it, I've copied @snowking's excellent post about snowfall and 850hpa temperatures over as a guide in the learning area:

 

[Weathizard]

GFS sticks to its guns with the Icelandic wedge, so it’s still GFS And UKMO vs ECM with regards to the wedge

[Kasim Awan]

1 minute ago, Allseasons-si said:

Blimey!!!,that high pressure is taking hold quicker over Iceland than the 12z.

Some good trough disruption there on the 18Z. TD is when low heights from one low move to another through an area of higher pressure. This would really help strengthen the cold pool and easterly D6-8.

[Scott Ingham]

4 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

If anyone doesn't know this rain/snow radar,then it's good to watch this animated one to determine where we are headed at a quick glance,snow being red.

Meteociel.fr - Radar de précipitations pluie et neige - Royaume-Uni/Irlande

WWW.METEOCIEL.FR

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La météo en temps réel et prévisions météo pour la France, Observations météo, modèles numériques et logiciels météo (GFS, ECMWF, UKMO, GEM, AROME, ARPEGE, JMA)

 

This looks wayyyy further east than models have suggested to me! Dont be surprised if those who looked out of it further east end up with a dusting. Met office could well be on the money here

[iowpompeylee]

5 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

If anyone doesn't know this rain/snow radar,then it's good to watch this animated one to determine where we are headed at a quick glance,snow being red.

Meteociel.fr - Radar de précipitations pluie et neige - Royaume-Uni/Irlande

WWW.METEOCIEL.FR

---

La météo en temps réel et prévisions météo pour la France, Observations météo, modèles numériques et logiciels météo (GFS, ECMWF, UKMO, GEM, AROME, ARPEGE, JMA)

 

Thank you! Really helpful! 

[Kasim Awan]

1 minute ago, Scott Ingham said:

This looks wayyyy further east than models have suggested to me! Dont be surprised if those who looked out of it further east end up with a dusting. Met office could well be on the money here

You're right, but it's still going to start taking on a more southerly progression, so a pass slightly due east of the hi res whilst remaining largely on the NNW to SSE axis this is expected to take. Warrnington to Teleford to West Country for me.

[Battleground Snow]

5 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

The 18z is even faster with building heights to our north than the 12z was, and I thought that was progressive!

Indeed, the para has been building pressure in that area faster, will be interesting to view that when it comes out shortly.

[Griff]

144

GFSP vs GFS 

Edit: Lolz @Battleground Snow

Edited December 27, 2020 by Griff

[Weathizard]

Much colder air on offer here as well compared to the 12z

[Scott Ingham]

1 minute ago, Kasim Awan said:

You're right, but it's still going to start taking on a more southerly progression, so a pass slightly due east of the hi res whilst remaining largely on the NNW to SSE axis this is expected to take. Warrnington to Teleford to West Country for me.

Okay thanks mate 

[Allseasons-Si]

At 174 and the cold pool over Scandi is better aligned too...

...and i couldn't possibly draw a better round circle than that one over Iceland lol

[Mike Poole]

Just a few thoughts about tomorrow having done a little nowcasting in the previous posts:

Radar, and HARMONIE about now:

Again further east than the model so HARMONIE can go in the bin as well.

But what exactly is going to happen tomorrow, GFS has this as entry and exit points:

In about 12 hours, I can see a whole lot of uncertainty in this evolution, particularly in the slack behind the main low, I’d put the snow risk for England in a triangle from Lancaster to Bristol to Brighton.  We will see...

 

[Allseasons-Si]

4 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:

This looks wayyyy further east than models have suggested to me! Dont be surprised if those who looked out of it further east end up with a dusting. Met office could well be on the money here

I think personally it will stall the further east it gets,that's  my view but i hope i am wrong as i want some settling dandruff

[Man With Beard]

So the 6 hourly look at who's getting snow begins again, here's the latest from what is probably my preferred short term model, the ARPEGE, which I like because it models fronts well and doesn't give snow unless parameters really really might be favourable. French view only until later. Covers up to Tuesday evening.

 

[Paul]

8 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

If anyone doesn't know this rain/snow radar,then it's good to watch this animated one to determine where we are headed at a quick glance,snow being red.

Or you could use this very site for quicker updates and a bit more detail on the prec type (just click the weather type button) 

Weather Radar - Live UK Rainfall Radar - 5 Minute Updates - Netweather

WWW.NETWEATHER.TV

 

But anyway, model wise. Lowland, lying snow is still looking pretty hard to come by this week, according to the UKV, with just temporary coverings likely lower down, particularly overnight and during heavier bursts. 

Quite an interesting little feature being shown in the 15z for new year's eve

[Skullzrulerz]

9 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

GFS sticks to its guns with the Icelandic wedge, so it’s still GFS And UKMO vs ECM with regards to the wedge

Which would be the best outcome?

[Howie]

18z building too much heights over Iberia for my liking

[Scott Ingham]

3 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

At 174 and the cold pool over Scandi is better aligned too...

...and i couldn't possibly draw a better round circle than that one over Iceland lol

So the icelandic high me and you mused was dropped and is now back and firmed up.

Always good when it looks like your ideas are on the money!

[Weathizard]

Do NOT look at the FI here unless you are alone, going to be NSFW

[sheikhy]

Dunno what to think of the 18z!!theme the same but different slightly to the 12z!!

[Cloud 10]

3 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Dunno what to think of the 18z!!theme the same but different slightly to the 12z!!

 

Its an absolute belter!

 

A cut off Griceland High.

 

Edited December 27, 2020 by Cloud 10

[Allseasons-Si]

3 minutes ago, Paul said:

Or you could use this very site for quicker updates and a bit more detail on the prec type (just click the weather type button) 

Weather Radar - Live UK Rainfall Radar - 5 Minute Updates - Netweather

WWW.NETWEATHER.TV

 

But anyway, model wise. Lowland, lying snow is still looking pretty hard to come by this week, according to the UKV, with just temporary coverings likely lower down, particularly overnight and during heavier bursts. 

Quite an interesting little feature being shown in the 15z for new year's eve

I do use that one too Paul,maybe i should of been a bit clearer,i like that one because it runs the animation quicker

[Kasim Awan]

Although the air source isn't overly cold on the gfs 18z, an easterly flow this time of year will reduce temps regardless of the air mass source. Uppers dropping @ 216h.

[ianmm94]

 

5 minutes ago, Howie said:

18z building too much heights over Iberia for my liking

what heights? two low pressures are heading right towards Iberia