Model Output Discussion - Into the new year

[Harsh Climate]

Looks as if snow can come from anywhere this week, this is the first hints I've seen of a good cheshire gap scenario..

This is wednesday morning on the net weather extra UKV model (I think it's called)

Coincides with colder uppers of -6 coming in, would almost certainly be snow.

Edited December 28, 2020 by Harsh Climate

[Anthony Burden]

Very interesting article with Matt Hugo suggesting very cold minus 10 hpa heading are way

from Arctic lows dropping south in front of Russian high bringing northerlies.Strong Greenland 

high mouth watering stuff.

[Day 10]

1 minute ago, Anthony Burden said:

Very interesting article with Matt Hugo suggesting very cold minus 10 hpa heading are way

from Arctic lows dropping south in front of Russian high bringing northerlies.Strong Greenland 

high mouth watering stuff.

Do you have a link please mate?

[Updated_Weather]

2 minutes ago, Day 10 said:

Do you have a link please mate?

 

[cheshire snow]

1 minute ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

And how am I wrong.?

Just to prove a point this morning 30m ASL

Back on topic looks like fronts and troughs been picked up by the models also getting colder as the week goes on.

C.S

[Polar Maritime]

Ok back we go to MOD please..

[Updated_Weather]

15 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

And how am I wrong.?

Because with the latest models it’s only getting colder & more chances of snow will pop up at short notice.

like last night. Quite a few places have a covering to a few CM in places. 
 

so I take it, you’re surprised by that?

[johnholmes]

14 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

I will be surprised if anyone receives a decent covering of snow this week

Can you pop your location in your avatar please as it helps get a good idea of what the weather is doing around the country-please?

Thanks

[johnholmes]

1 minute ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

Well a little surprised for example my area was showing light snow,but now that has changed just a low chance of sleet showers

Please see my polite request just above, it really does help to know what area you are talking about, again please?

[Updated_Weather]

1 minute ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

Well a little surprised for example my area was showing light snow,but now that has changed just a low chance of sleet showers

Let me guess,

you’re relying on weather apps?

stick to a radar instead.. weather apps aren’t reliable for snow at all. Even down to T6!

[Day 10]

Another cracking day 5 chart, trending colder.

[ianmm94]

2 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

Well a little surprised for example my area was showing light snow,but now that has changed just a low chance of sleet showers

If you've spent enough time on here, you'd know not to pay attention to weather apps

[Captain Shortwave]

 

Another run creating that big wedge of heights close to Iceland. At this point this is the most important piece of the puzzle from extending the period of cold weather beyond the initial cyclonic conditions we have at the moment. Now the easterly at the moment isn’t that cold as we are still only dealing with the cold air that has dropped into Europe recently (albeit cooled slightly on the continent). However signs already in the ECM/GFS suites that the high could move westwards towards Greenland in week 2 and potentially offer something more significant, especially as background signals favour this.

Edited December 28, 2020 by Captain Shortwave

[Radiating Dendrite]

1 minute ago, Day 10 said:

Another cracking day 5 chart, trending colder.

Uppers are certainly trending colder. Think we could see some small patches of -10c cropping up in the next few runs for this timescale. 

[TSNWK]

One thing I’ve noticed on this run and was also commented overnight run was the decrease in upper temperatures in the near term, although the Synoptics are similar.. are the models now picking up on home grown cold both over uk and Europe...

 

Edited December 28, 2020 by TSNWK

[Griff]

I must have banged my head at some point, very confused about any negativity given some of the pessimism on Christmas day, this is astounding... 

[winterof79]

 

A showery North/easterly flow established by Friday through the weekend. 

 

 

 

 

[Ice Day]

Really good run so far, out to 150 and heights building nicely over 'Griceland'.  Any other winter this place would be in meltdown for these charts, but this year things are a bit different!

  

[Anthony Burden]

30 minutes ago, Day 10 said:

Do you have a link please mate?

High if you have Twitter just tap in Matt Hugo

[bluearmy]

1 minute ago, Anthony Burden said:

High if you have Twitter just tap in Matt Hugo

Unless you’re blocked by him ....... (there are lots of us )

[Anthony Burden]

1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

Unless you’re blocked by him ....... (there are lots of us )

High sorry to hear that very highly qualified meteorologist.

[Day 10]

Are those much colder uppers going to drop down from the north east on this run?

[bluearmy]

3 minutes ago, Anthony Burden said:

High sorry to hear that very highly qualified meteorologist.

I’ll manage ..... his professional qualifications clearly don’t match his choice of followers ! 

anyway, some owe Exeter an apology over slp levels in the new year ......  most of the country will be higher than usual 

 

Edited December 28, 2020 by bluearmy

[Ice Day]

Looking fabulous at 186 - cold dropping to our north east with growing heights to our north west.  Classic!

  

[Notty]

Will the Arctic floodgates open next week?

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=192&mode=0