Model Output Discussion - Into the new year

[Bansobaby]

1 minute ago, syed2878 said:

A genuine question to you knowledgeable folks out there The model output at the moment is fantastic to say the least however my question is with the output we are seeing why is the UK but not forecasting that in their extended outlook are they saying something that we are not with all the data they have at their disposal I would have thought they would of picked all this up yet in their extended that are going with no significant cold.

I would suggest that it’s because to them “significant cold” would be sub zero at the surface for several days on end.

None of the models are really showing that YET.

[Deep Snow please]

2 minutes ago, Updated_Weather said:

A few reasons.

don’t want to put there neck on the line because things change.

it’s in FI (fantasy Land)

& it’s not certain yet.

FI - Fantasy Island - not fantasy land. Or to more answer the person you're responding to, well outside of the reliable timeframe for the models. 

 

Essentially for anything after Day 7 - you're looking at patterns and trends across models rather than concrete events. 

Edited December 28, 2020 by Deep Snow please

[andymusic]

3 minutes ago, syed2878 said:

A genuine question to you knowledgeable folks out there The model output at the moment is fantastic to say the least however my question is with the output we are seeing why is the UK but not forecasting that in their extended outlook are they saying something that we are not with all the data they have at their disposal I would have thought they would of picked all this up yet in their extended that are going with no significant cold.

I'd say they are moving in the right direction - and with the models output as is now with cold easterlies progged, they will probably change again

[Updated_Weather]

1 minute ago, Deep Snow please said:

FI - Fantasy Island - not fantasy land. Or to more answer the person you're responding to, well outside of the reliable timeframe for the models. 

 

Essentially for anything after Day 7 - you're looking at patterns and trends across models rather than concrete events. 

Same thing.

[Deep Snow please]

1 minute ago, Updated_Weather said:

Same thing.

I mean it's FI not FL, so it's clearly one rather than the other.

 

Might post was more to clarify the time period of Fantasy Island as you'd seemed to neglect bother telling a new model watcher the most crucial piece of information regards to Fantasy Island, when it actually covers in the model runs. (Days 7 to 10+) 

[DEYS(Kent)]

1 hour ago, Kent Clipper said:

We have been bitten so many times and rightly we are still slightly cautious, the atmosphere is electric though. We are poised with champagne bottles in hand and fingers on the cork. If we are heading into easterly territory most of us would like just a couple of degrees shaved off those uppers before we pop that cork and get the party started.  FWIW a similar thing happened in the lead up to the late November 2010 event. For a number of days -7's were consistently being progged. A few runs started to drop in the odd pool of -10c in the North Sea, it grew and the rest is history. 

I must say, I hope that happens this time around but with far east Kent getting in on the action this time. Current easterly projections offer nothing for the East Kent massive next week. Let’s have a those raging NElys on -8 or below hpa’s with favourable DPs please..

However, the output is most encouraging for a memorable January for many, even lasting into Feb if SSW favours NW Europe too..

[IanT]

2 minutes ago, Updated_Weather said:

A few reasons.

don’t want to put there neck on the line because things change.

it’s in FI (fantasy Land)

& it’s not certain yet.

It's all about the difference between probabilities and possibilities.

Most of the posts we read here are explicitly highlighting possibilities. They may become forecasts if and when their probabilities are higher and conviction can be built.

Weather enthusiasts tend to focus on possibilities, whilst pro forecasters are professionally constrained by probabilities. Forums like this are fascinating because they provide a venue for the Probables v Possibles match... 

 

[Scandinavian High.]

Models looking very interesting high pressure north north west colder air dropping in to Scandinavia also metoffce mentioning in there long range outlook very cold conditions..

[andymusic]

18 minutes ago, Deep Snow please said:

I mean it's FI not FL, so it's clearly one rather than the other.

 

Might post was more to clarify the time period of Fantasy Island as you'd seemed to neglect bother telling a new model watcher the most crucial piece of information regards to Fantasy Island, when it actually covers in the model runs. (Days 7 to 10+) 

It changes depending on model consistency against each other - can be as low as 96 hours out but generally sits around 120 - 144 - 240 plus on gfs/ecm is defo FI territory

Edited December 28, 2020 by andymusic

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Way hay folks.. I've been waiting since the Winter of 2017/18 for snow and finally today I got it...a nice covering,with perhaps another risk tonight.

A great Ecm Mean again,and some cracking GFS 6Z ens also..we looked locked into a cold pattern for sure.

I said I would run naked through through the snow if it came...here goes..

Edited December 28, 2020 by MATTWOLVES

[bluearmy]

33 minutes ago, syed2878 said:

A genuine question to you knowledgeable folks out there The model output at the moment is fantastic to say the least however my question is with the output we are seeing why is the UK but not forecasting that in their extended outlook are they saying something that we are not with all the data they have at their disposal I would have thought they would of picked all this up yet in their extended that are going with no significant cold.

I read their outlook as being very reflective of the current modelling 

3 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Anyone got an update from the 06z ecm for wednesdays snow for midlands and the south?

North of the M4 for snowfall - tomorrow’s stuff headed south is down the western side of England 

[chris55]

2 hours ago, Tim Bland said:

Stunning! Glad it dropped the naff output from earlier! 

Yikes! That is one hell of a chart!

[SLEETY]

34 minutes ago, andymusic said:

I'd say they are moving in the right direction - and with the models output as is now with cold easterlies progged, they will probably change again

Met office will never stick their neck out regarding snow or cold but bit brave to say NO INDICATIONS of exceptionally cold conditions,where their are indications in the models,,still they never admit they are wrong.

Like 10 day trend forecast said high over the uk by this saturday,not looking likely now.

[Tim Bland]

6 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

I read their outlook as being very reflective of the current modelling 

North of the M4 for snowfall - tomorrow’s stuff headed south is down the western side of England 

Similar to 00z Blue? ECM seems much further north than most models but Met office are obviously taking it seriously as it matches their warning

[offerman]

9 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

Met office will never stick their neck out regarding snow or cold but bit brave to say NO INDICATIONS of exceptionally cold conditions,where their are indications in the models,,still they never admit they are wrong.

Like 10 day trend forecast said high over the uk by this saturday,not looking likely now.

Spot on sleety, I have noticed that about them too. Good point ! 

[Tim Bland]

7 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Hi tim you got any charts for tonight and tomorrow mornings snowfall!yesterdays 12z had it coming through the wash and central midlands!has that changed now?

Looks a bit further west now mate. I think Kasim has his Hoover on full power sucking all the snow to the Peak District. Still good for some...

[Howie]

NAO and AO looking good

[birdman]

7 to 10 days ago how did the models handle this current cold/snowy spell? (albeit minor snow event) Or isn't that something this particular thread dwells on? 

[Radiating Dendrite]

Just now, birdman said:

7 to 10 days ago how did the models handle this current cold/snowy spell? (albeit minor snow event) Or isn't that something this particular thread dwells on? 

Snow events are not something that can be forecast at such a range. They were trending for cold though, so we're certainly in the right ball park. 

[birdman]

3 minutes ago, Radiating Dendrite said:

Snow events are not something that can be forecast at such a range. They were trending for cold though, so we're certainly in the right ball park. 

Thanks, yes I understand snow is difficult to forecast and its more about looking for the correct combination of parameters that are conducive for snow. I guess I was wondering how accurate the outputs are at that range but Its probably not a question of accuracy... more about the pattern or trend. 

[Stu_London]

7 minutes ago, birdman said:

7 to 10 days ago how did the models handle this current cold/snowy spell? (albeit minor snow event) Or isn't that something this particular thread dwells on? 

I think the models handled the current situation really well. There was always going to be some variation in exact positioning of the low and associated troughs and fronts, but on the whole it was pretty consistent in showing a below average period of temperatures following a vigorous storm with some prone spots getting some snow. 

Some of the expectations of the forum community were a little elevated, especially to start with, but that is understandable given the relative rarity of these types of weather patterns  

 

[radiohead]

15 minutes ago, birdman said:

7 to 10 days ago how did the models handle this current cold/snowy spell? (albeit minor snow event) Or isn't that something this particular thread dwells on? 

ECM at 240 hours, 10 days ago:

 

ECM from this morning, 0 hours:

 

[Stu_London]

Just now, radiohead said:

ECM at 240 hours, 10 days ago:

 

ECM from this morning, 0 hours:

 

for 240 hour verification, I would say that is about as good as it gets in wintertime

[Daniel*]

More of Europe and Russia turning colder in extended EPS that’s what we want to see. Very prolonged cold signal for us. 

[birdman]

21 minutes ago, radiohead said:

ECM at 240 hours, 10 days ago:

 

ECM from this morning, 0 hours:

 

Cheers. Looks pretty damn close to my somewhat untrained eye!