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Model Output Discussion - Into the new year

SMU

By SMU
in Forecast Model Discussion

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Paul
Message added by Paul,

Please stick to discussing the model output in this thread. For more general chat , please use the winter/cold weather/snow chat, banter, moans and ramps thread. 

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Tim Bland Maestro

Tim Bland

Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
Posted
9 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

It’s time to play chase that shortwave ! 

The GFS tracks that se and then through the Channel . It’s further north than the earlier run but much further south than what was shown earlier on BBC forecasts .

The GFS has a mainly south of the M4 area of precip with snow on the northern flank .

GFS and ECM miles apart ... 

49CD97D2-5483-4C2E-87E7-5D58310B31BF.gif

2B0189A8-F435-45F5-8356-303590B7C108.jpeg

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Kasim Awan Maestro

Kasim Awan

Posted
Posted (edited)

Arome seems on the money tonight. Entry around Sunderland / Scarborough as rain Marginal 1-2cm east yorks, less marginal 5-10cm >200m & 2-4cm widely w. yorks into lancs & 1-3cm low lying nw eng before a transition to sleet below 200m.. Passing into Staffordshire too.

May be well south though as a bit of a nowcast

aromehd-56-20-0.png

Edited by Kasim Awan
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TSNWK Maestro

TSNWK

Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
Posted
8 minutes ago, Jason M said:

Theta values are a bit lower as well at around 10.

Hello.  Is there snow threshold for Theta values.  I can of course Google theta in general but thats not the point

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That ECM Maestro

That ECM

Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
Posted (edited)
4 minutes ago, Skullzrulerz said:

Not sure if it's me but I don't really like the sound of the high so close to the UK?

From yesterday's UKMO is this a upgrade?

This would be fine. T168 for my money would have the high above Scotland feeding us an Easterly. T168 so all JFF.

DF16E1B8-4D60-4E96-9284-4D6BCE9AC72B.png

D5C1A453-DEFA-455C-A5F4-07AC8B320444.gif

6538B613-F928-4D08-8468-3F8D8D6929EB.png

Edited by That ECM
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pureasthedriven Aficionado

pureasthedriven

Posted
  • Location: Horley, near Gatwick
  • Location: Horley, near Gatwick
Posted
Just now, sheikhy said:

Ukmo follows icon still good but high more stronger over the northwest of the uk so a stronger ridge to the west  and northern uk!!

Which also ties in with Exeter’s overnight update. 

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tight isobar Maestro

tight isobar

Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
Posted (edited)

Lower heights @gfs.12z- but this could actually aid as we evolve!!!!!!

Edited by tight isobar
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SnOwFeSt Apprentice

SnOwFeSt

Posted
  • Location: West leeds, 115m asl
  • Location: West leeds, 115m asl
Posted
1 hour ago, Jason M said:

At present I think its the other way round. I think this forum is seeing something the METO is not. Other than a couple of weeks of rather cold weather there isn't any deep freeze showing in the charts at present and they can't forecast something that isn't supported by evidence. There are some nice looking easterlies but they are fairly tame as they are generally sourced from a long way south and well within the envelope of bog standard UK winter weather.

Some will see rain, some will see snow (or already have), but nothing significantly cold. 

GEFS are okay but a bit meh in all honesty. We are roughly where we are two days ago and whilst in the game (makes a change :-)) the result remains in the balance!

 

 

I disagree. We’re looking at at least 10 days of significantly below average temps. Even based on the ‘milder’ projections the CET will be running at 4+ degrees below the long term average for at least the first half of january.

..and that’s before we factor in the potential for much much colder weather down the line based on the hemispheric pattern and potential SSW effects.

This is not bog standard winter weather by any stretch.

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I remember Atlantic 252 Maestro

I remember Atlantic 252

Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
Posted
5 minutes ago, That ECM said:

T144 Ukmo. Still good

36F527B0-865A-4016-AD10-EF6CF4610ADB.gif

my imagination or is that high getting closer to the uk on most runs? see where GFS and EC have it

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Jason M Experienced

Jason M

Posted
  • Location: South Essex
  • Location: South Essex
Posted
Just now, TSNWK said:

Hello.  Is there snow threshold for Theta values.  I can of course Google theta in general but thats not the point

I work on '10' or below. Its just one of numerous thresholds though. I'm thinking if 850s are -5, Theta at 10 we are at least in the game. Its all super marginal though for at least the next 6-7 days. Its the sort of set up where you wake up to snow, watch it get washed away by rain and see snow again by nightfall or vice versa.

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Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Jason M said:

At present I think its the other way round. I think this forum is seeing something the METO is not. Other than a couple of weeks of rather cold weather there isn't any deep freeze showing in the charts at present and they can't forecast something that isn't supported by evidence. There are some nice looking easterlies but they are fairly tame as they are generally sourced from a long way south and well within the envelope of bog standard UK winter weather.

Some will see rain, some will see snow (or already have), but nothing significantly cold. 

GEFS are okay but a bit meh in all honesty. We are roughly where we are two days ago and whilst in the game (makes a change :-)) the result remains in the balance!

And not just faeries at the bottom of the garden, either: if the SSW happens (pretty likely IMO) and if the SSW splits/displaces the PV ideally (somewhat less likely?) Snowmageddon may be only two-or-three-weeks' around the corner... But hardly persuasive enough to convince any reputable organisation it's now time to issue a plethora of far-fetched snow warnings, just yet?

Anywho, it's GooFuS time!:santa-emoji:

Edited by General Cluster
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Met4Cast Maestro

Met4Cast

Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Popular Post
Posted

WAA into Greenland, there's only one place that high pressure is going and it's northwards.

WAA.thumb.png.fe392ef8011a5469fa7d15bc310b7cbd.png

Stella FI coming up..

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Kent Clipper Explorer

Kent Clipper

Posted
  • Location: Steve - Folkestone, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, snow events, cold zonality. Heat and humidity.
  • Location: Steve - Folkestone, Kent
Posted

GFS 144 (850's)...We need to shave 3 degrees off to take advantage of this.

image.thumb.png.114ea844d87f456427fc4bd588ccdbba.png

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Stu_London Rising Star

Stu_London

Posted
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells, Kent
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells, Kent
Posted
6 minutes ago, Updated_Weather said:

Whose ready for the 12z?

Lets see if the temporary breakdown from the south is still there at around 210 hours - plenty of ensembles have not been going with that scenario, so would be interesting to see an alternative evolution. 

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matty40s Maestro

matty40s

Posted
  • Location: on a canal , probably near Northampton...
  • Weather Preferences: extremes n snow
  • Location: on a canal , probably near Northampton...
Posted
13 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

GFS and ECM miles apart ... 

49CD97D2-5483-4C2E-87E7-5D58310B31BF.gif

2B0189A8-F435-45F5-8356-303590B7C108.jpeg

The first one is at 12pm, the 2nd at 6pm, a natural progression of the front.

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tight isobar Maestro

tight isobar

Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
Posted

We know where we are headed here I think .  12z showing off !!!

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winterof79 Veteran

winterof79

Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
Posted

Laters high....and whoosh she was gone

image.thumb.png.edaeb3153767ed67d57e3931778ea98c.png

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