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Model Output Discussion - Into the new year

SMU

By SMU
in Forecast Model Discussion

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Paul
Message added by Paul,

Please stick to discussing the model output in this thread. For more general chat , please use the winter/cold weather/snow chat, banter, moans and ramps thread. 

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Catacol Maestro

Catacol

Posted
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Frost and snow. A quiet autumn day is also good.
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl
Posted
2 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

Yup.. he blocks people just for LIKING the tweets of someone who has disagreed with him, even if it was politely. Very, very bizarre. 

My idea of the pattern relaxing as we go through the first week of January is looking decidedly wrong now.. If anything the pattern begins to intensify through the first week across all the latest guidance. The GFS 06z shows us a clear & easy route to proper cold.

Griceland ridge > Griceland block > Retrogression to a Greenland block > Scandi trough > Cold.

COLD.thumb.png.cd0b29a633d91d723236b3bd76fe2480.pngCOLD1.thumb.png.0a6241676170440e831981a6fe264d35.png

This is BEFORE any SSW...

Agreed - the timetable is racing ahead and I had expected a softening of the pattern just after New Year. At the moment it would appear not....but maybe NWP is getting ahead of itself still. However if these charts 2/3/4 January come to pass then what might follow by 6/7/8 could be pretty “significant”...!

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East_England_Stormchaser91 Veteran

East_England_Stormchaser91

Posted
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Thundery, Cold and Snowy
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
Posted

Incredible looking charts at relatively so early on in the season. It’s rare to get a reverse zonality chart showing in December, incredibly rare. 

Make the most and best out of this folks. 

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Climate Man Seasoned

Climate Man

Posted
  • Location: Midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Very Cold, Very Snowy
  • Location: Midlands
Posted
2 minutes ago, Catacol said:

Agreed - the timetable is racing ahead and I had expected a softening of the pattern just after New Year. At the moment it would appear not....but maybe NWP is getting ahead of itself still. However if these charts 2/3/4 January come to pass then what might follow by 6/7/8 could be pretty “significant”...!

Yes indeed,  some seriously cold uppers now appearing to the East as we move into the New Year and currently modeled to drift this way.

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snowking Accomplished

snowking

Posted
  • Location: St Albans, 95m asl
  • Location: St Albans, 95m asl
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Posted
2 minutes ago, Catacol said:

Agreed - the timetable is racing ahead and I had expected a softening of the pattern just after New Year. At the moment it would appear not....but maybe NWP is getting ahead of itself still. However if these charts 2/3/4 January come to pass then what might follow by 6/7/8 could be pretty “significant”...!

Seconded. This evolution looks about 7-10 days or so too quick to me, difficult to know though with so much going on. Is this a ridiculously quick response to goings on in the stratosphere? Is this tropospherically led? I suspect we might see these charts continuing to stay at the same timeframe for a few days yet rather than being reeled in.

I’m also slightly sceptical of GFS output in the troposphere at the moment given it doesn’t seem to have a handle on the stratosphere at day 5 yet vs all other suites.

The overall pattern though is the one I think we’re all expecting, retrogression of heights, stronger and colder European trough, with the UK sitting somewhere close to the periphery.

If everything goes just right then we will be laughing. Lots to play out yet though so caution required

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Johnp Accomplished

Johnp

Posted
  • Location: North East Hampshire
  • Location: North East Hampshire
Posted
1 minute ago, Steve Murr said:

Morning

 

Im not unleashing the boom charts just yet - Im saving it...

However they are coming.... Soon...

Is the dreaded West based -ve NAO a worry?

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Youcan'tbecirrus Apprentice

Youcan'tbecirrus

Posted
  • Location: Canvey Island
  • Location: Canvey Island
Posted
7 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Stunning! Glad it dropped the naff output from earlier! 

C61B46F4-634E-4691-8555-C93E07E8C812.png

To my very untrained eye that looks a stunning chart. A couple of days ago, and with a SSW apparently in the wings, I think members would have been salivating over such a chart but it is interesting to see how there seems to be a lot less positivity in here this morning.     

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snowice Seasoned

snowice

Posted
  • Location: HILL OF TARA IRELAND
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW ICE
  • Location: HILL OF TARA IRELAND
Posted
3 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Morning

 

Im not unleashing the boom charts just yet - Im saving it...

However they are coming.... Soon...

4pm today can't wait

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Griff Veteran

Griff

Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
Posted (edited)

Just for fun GFSP looks as if it will topple in deep, darkest FI, but might have a reload soon after? 

gfsnh-0-270.png

Edit: your mum might be stuck in tier 4 and can't go to Iceland, but the purple blob has gone on a winter Arctic safari... 

Edited by Griff
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jules216 Experienced

jules216

Posted
  • Location: Roznava (Slovakia) formerly Hollywood, Co Wicklow
  • Weather Preferences: continental climate
  • Location: Roznava (Slovakia) formerly Hollywood, Co Wicklow
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Posted

Greetings from Slovakia.Took a chance and booked a chalet on Higher Ground(800m) as I wanted to experience proper winter. Forecasts expecting over 50mm of Snow until tomorrow.Its Been snowing moderately since last night already.So calm and magic as this is a remote Area in Slovak paradise with only Holiday homes. Fingers crossed UK hits proper Snow soon.Great model watching.

 

IMG_20201228_094904.jpg

IMG_20201228_094725.jpg

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Catacol Maestro

Catacol

Posted
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Frost and snow. A quiet autumn day is also good.
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl
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Posted
4 minutes ago, snowking said:

Seconded. This evolution looks about 7-10 days or so too quick to me, difficult to know though with so much going on. Is this a ridiculously quick response to goings on in the stratosphere? Is this tropospherically led? I suspect we might see these charts continuing to stay at the same timeframe for a few days yet rather than being reeled in.

I’m also slightly sceptical of GFS output in the troposphere at the moment given it doesn’t seem to have a handle on the stratosphere at day 5 yet vs all other suites.

The overall pattern though is the one I think we’re all expecting, retrogression of heights, stronger and colder European trough, with the UK sitting somewhere close to the periphery.

If everything goes just right then we will be laughing. Lots to play out yet though so caution required

Perhaps we really are seeing downward impacts of the weak strat already. ECM for Jan 3 on the trop/strat boundary is extremely supportive of an Iceland ridge and Euro cold backing west. 
image.thumb.png.e8c7ccde5e4d60e789db816ece56ff62.png

Living the dream at the moment! 

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Battleground Snow Maestro

Battleground Snow

Posted
  • Location: Coventry
  • Location: Coventry
Posted
6 minutes ago, Catacol said:

Perhaps we really are seeing downward impacts of the weak strat already. ECM for Jan 3 on the trop/strat boundary is extremely supportive of an Iceland ridge and Euro cold backing west. 
image.thumb.png.e8c7ccde5e4d60e789db816ece56ff62.png

Living the dream at the moment! 

The para did start to show these quicker evolutions in FI before the regular GFS,  so maybe it could be strat related as the para has a better handle on events up there?

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Griff Veteran

Griff

Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
Posted
7 minutes ago, Griff said:

Just for fun GFSP looks as if it will topple in deep, darkest FI, but might have a reload soon after? 

gfsnh-0-270.png

Edit: your mum might be stuck in tier 4 and can't go to Iceland, but the purple blob has gone on a winter Arctic safari... 

GFSP looks like it will still end well regardless 

gfsnh-0-300 (2).png

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BarometerCat Aficionado

BarometerCat

Posted
  • Location: Hinckley, Leicestershire 123m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow (Mostly)
  • Location: Hinckley, Leicestershire 123m ASL
Posted

GFS 12z, still cold out to +336.  To my untrained eye, no real sign of mild for a change.  This is unlike any recent winter since I've been watching on here.   

Take your pick for best charts at the moment.  

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Johnp Accomplished

Johnp

Posted
  • Location: North East Hampshire
  • Location: North East Hampshire
Posted
5 minutes ago, Snowfish2 said:

What run Steve...... When

He may be knowledgeable, but I don't think he can see the future yet!

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bluearmy Maestro

bluearmy

Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
Posted
11 minutes ago, fromey said:

@bluearmy this one then.

2EBCFB26-C603-4F0E-95A1-6771375431E4.jpeg

move it 300 miles nw ......... compare it with the stuff being churned out by the other models early last week for this coming weekend 

it’s not that bad .....my point being that you dont take anything in isolation..... that’s what the idiots that read the express do ..... those on here are surely more  complex than that ???

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Updated_Weather Seasoned

Updated_Weather

Posted
  • Location: Essex, UK
  • Location: Essex, UK
Posted
2 minutes ago, B-C said:

GFS 12z, still cold out to +336.  To my untrained eye, no real sign of mild for a change.  This is unlike any recent winter since I've been watching on here.   

Take your pick for best charts at the moment.  

That’ll be yesterday’s chart. Check out 6z for today’s output.

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Met4Cast Maestro

Met4Cast

Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
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Posted
8 minutes ago, Catacol said:

Perhaps we really are seeing downward impacts of the weak strat already. ECM for Jan 3 on the trop/strat boundary is extremely supportive of an Iceland ridge and Euro cold backing west. 
image.thumb.png.e8c7ccde5e4d60e789db816ece56ff62.png

Living the dream at the moment! 

It is a little perplexing.. Up until 2 days ago models were beginning to relax the pattern and then the GFS flipped to blocking & the ECM followed. Difficult to argue with the consistency between both models & the ensemble suites since then..

If anything, the means have doubled down in support of a Griceland > Greenland block. The 06z GEFS mean is absolutely stonking.

STONKING.thumb.png.9100995fd73da65dc68a0aa56de3c25d.pnghhh.thumb.png.aba13313038b1457f193ef1bb26928ab.png

EPS mean a little further south, but I don't think anybody here would be kicking it out of bed

YES.thumb.png.5631ba7af8c63bddfca3c4752f3a73f1.png

I don't like to compare years with previous years, but I've not seen an ensemble suite that good at that range since 2010.. 

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