Model Output Discussion - Into the new year

[kold weather]

2 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Read the full post...and don’t hide behind the fact that the HP is further south.  It’s to show the dangers here...nit the outcome as we don’t know 

 

BFTP

To be fair also it would only take a really awkward little shortwave to run between Iceland and Greenland (did we used to call it GIN, or something like that!) and the whole of FI will start to look different. I'd say FI is probably quite close in at the moment, maybe 96hrs?

Not that I think thats going to happen, but us oldies on here have been bitten a great many times by such a feature!

Edited December 28, 2020 by kold weather

[snowice]

2 minutes ago, Ice Day said:

Pub run out to 174.  What. A. Chart.

 

Uppers getting colder and nearer with every run

[Matt H]

3 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Read the full post...and don’t hide behind the fact that the HP is further south.  It’s to show the dangers here...nit the outcome as we don’t know 

 

BFTP

Have to admit I can’t notice any significant differences at the t144 mark but you know far more than I do about this as I’m still learning so thanks.

[feb1991blizzard]

13 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

This is why WIB (Richard) shouldn’t be vilified....he knows his stuff. 
 

That is close to a sinker

But look at the sharpening of the trough to the SW of this high...it suggests propping and retrograde 

 

 

This run in my eyes is the best 192 chart i have seen this winter, you could get a pasting in a few frames time from this, coldish uppers coming, low heights and kinks in the surface pressure isobars!

[Howie]

1 minute ago, Frosty Winter said:

Have to admit I can’t notice any significant differences at the t144 mark but you know far more than I do about this as I’m still learning so thanks.

Looks pretty much identical 

[sheikhy]

Good gosh what an 18z up to 192 hours!!!it just keeps getting better!!!snow chances galore from now till then!

[Griff]

GFSP  

[XtremeUKWeather]

Impressive Harmonie for south

[kold weather]

Good looking set-up again on the 18z GFS, a marginal event again on for much of England, the wind angle isn't the best so maybe a bit of a struggle though the air is fairly cold so it maybe just on the right side, especially further north. We will see!

However that is a great looking block, looks nicely positioned for a second shot from the north that is just starting to feed down the E.flank of Greenland.

[Cheshire Freeze]

Ruddy Nora, GFS is a stunner

[Mark wheeler]

1 minute ago, XtremeUKWeather said:

Impressive Harmonie for south

Have you got a link to this please.

[Harsh Climate]

Check out the low just spawn out of thin air at 192h over the UK, about to drag in bitter north easterlies. Weather porn to say the least! 

[XtremeUKWeather]

Just now, Mark wheeler said:

Have you got a link to this please.

WWW.METEOCIEL.FR

---

Meteociel propose de manière régulière le modèle à maille fine HARMONIE 0.03° de KNMI (météo néerlandaise) sur 2 zones (Belgique, Pays-Bas)

 

[feb1991blizzard]

8 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Thanks KW...exactly right

BFTP

Of course we know anything could scupper it at this range, can't speak for others but i was commenting on the run as to what it did, not what it might do, and it will be a stonker, of course it might not verify and a shortwave feature could send us back to rubbish, definitely not ruling that out, Dec 2012 and Jan 19 classic examples of this at shorter lead times so yes your right, wise to be a breast of the risks.

[kold weather]

ARPEGE still one of the further south runs, though still gives something to look for in the south of England, especially below the M4. 

It actually slightly lifts it northwards/strengthens it over the SE btw which gives some snow to the SE region late in the night. 

 

[Allseasons-Si]

2 minutes ago, kold weather said:

To be fair also it would only take a really awkward little shortwave to run between Iceland and Greenland (did we used to call it GIN, or something like that!) and the whole of FI will start to look different. I'd say FI is probably quite close in at the moment, maybe 96hrs?

Not that I think thats going to happen, but us oldies on here have been bitten a great many times by such a feature!

You are quite right there KW and little features that models don't pick up on until closer to the time could scupper the whole thing,but i do say that it is looking more likely for a Greenland high looking at the anomaly charts, I am not saying that this is nailed and a dead cert and caution should always be a in our minds as always but i feel a bit optimistic that this is the road forward looking at the background drivers,trop pv located as far away as possible from our shores is where all the driving weather is at the moment whilst the Atlantic is as dead as a...

...Dodo.

 

[matty40s]

3 hours ago, Ramp said:

Red warning incoming

It'll be called Tier6, you will not travel, even if you want to.

Edited December 28, 2020 by matty40s

[Cheshire Freeze]

This is the cleanest run to a Greenland HP with bitter uppers feeding down on its E flank we've seen to date. Stunning 

[Tim Bland]

7 minutes ago, XtremeUKWeather said:

Impressive Harmonie for south

Looks similar to ECM 

[Captain Shortwave]

A much shallower cold pool moving south on the pub run. This does not deepen as much when it interacts with the trough near the UK. What happens after this is poetry in motion as deep cold moves south and reinvigorates that trough.

And yes the precipitation associated with that stalling low is turning increasingly to snow.

Edited December 28, 2020 by Captain Shortwave

[kold weather]

Quite a large snow event for northern England on the 18z run, again perhapd on the marginal side for settling snow, especially nearer the coast, but the hills get battered on this run, and ,my guess is so would lowland areas as well, more than is being modelled anyway.

Also - note the upper cold coming down from the north, this is going to be a stunner of a run in deep FI as well.

Edited December 28, 2020 by kold weather

[Allseasons-Si]

Day ten...

[Tom Jarvis]

Nationwide snow event. Even though it shows rain I think it will be 100% snow 

Edited December 28, 2020 by Tom Jarvis

[sukayuonsensnow]

That low pressure sure sticks around the north of England on the GFS18. (middle of next week)

My gut tells me the higher ground of northern England will be under very deep snow in the next couple weeks.

The detail will no doubt change - it probably will even for tomorrow let alone next week - but something is definitely brewing.

[Tim Bland]

Snow for all on this run...