Model Output Discussion - Into the new year

[Day 10]

2 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

This is the cleanest run to a Greenland HP with bitter uppers feeding down on its E flank we've seen to date. Stunning 

What a belter! 

[Stu_London]

4 minutes ago, kold weather said:

ARPEGE still one of the further south runs, though still gives something to look for in the south of England, especially below the M4. 

It actually slightly lifts it northwards/strengthens it over the SE btw which gives some snow to the SE region late in the night. 

 

LOL - still cold rain for me - you couldn't make it up!

[damianslaw]

1 hour ago, Allseasons-si said:

The latest ICON for a 24 hr period shows the feature off the NE coast going through Yorkshire down into the west midlands south.

Lots of variability between models for the next 6 hours, never mind 6 days makes forecasting at the moment a nowcasting situation. BBC for example much keener on showing the trough take a line through northern parts of N England. Last night proved very difficult to pinpoint position of such features in the set up we have.

[Snowman.]

3 Pockets of cold, one over the southern england, one north of Scotland and a new one east of greenland.

Best OP we have seen so far this winter period.

[blizzard81]

7 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Ruddy Nora, GFS is a stunner

Absolute snowmageddon for Northern England on this run. One of the best runs for persistent snow I have ever seen since viewing these models back in 2003.

[BARRY]

1 minute ago, Tom Jarvis said:

Nationwide snow event. Even though it shows rain I think it will be 100% now 

A bold statement 

[MJB]

1 minute ago, blizzard81 said:

Absolute snowmageddon for Northern England on this run. One of the best runs for persistent snow I have ever seen since viewing these models back in 2003.

Not just the North , most of the UK are in on the act 

[SLEETY]

severe weather into the Northern isles with minus 12 upper air crossing the warm seas,heavy snow the likely outcome.

[Ice Day]

I'm following three runs at the moment.  The GFS is at 252

The GFSP is at 198

The Control is at 144

Words fail me.  Utterly incredible model watching at the moment.  

[kold weather]

Just now, blizzard81 said:

Absolute snowmageddon for Northern England on this run. One of the best runs for persistent snow I have ever seen since viewing these models back in 2003.

Yeah thats a heck of a run for the north thats for sure. 

Eventually as the low develops and moves SE the south also joins in the party.

Anyway this run on the 18z GFS certainly been to the pub...

However as has been said, still time for that to go wrong, especially with where we are at 120hrs, I'd not feel comfortable till thats inside 72hrs to be honest. 

[Allseasons-Si]

This run has all the hallmarks of...

[blizzard81]

2 minutes ago, MJB said:

Not just the North , most of the UK are in on the act 

Indeed but the heavy stuff sticks over Yorkshire for at least 3 solid days. Over 2ft of snow on the higher ground. I can dream lol. 

[Stu_London]

2 minutes ago, Ice Day said:

I'm following three runs at the moment.  The GFS is at 252

The GFSP is at 198

The Control is at 144

Words fail me.  Utterly incredible model watching at the moment.  

Parallel looks a bit ropey 

[Snowman.]

Insane cold north of the UK atm. Cold and snow in situ.

[Speedbird]

1 minute ago, Allseasons-si said:

This run has all the hallmarks of...

Looks like a mushroom cloud from a nuclear winter . . .

[sheikhy]

Just to add not the best parallel!!!bit slower to get there as well!!

[kold weather]

Just now, Stu_London said:

Parallel looks a bit ropey 

It does, however dare I say this...

Its a little Dec 62 in the way it looks around 168hrs....

[Mucka]

Just got home and checked the output, will read all the posts after posting this.

 

I was a bit disappointed in ECM, solely because I thought it would move toward a faster Greenland high and V cold flow, but it is a good run in its own right. Cold throughout and poised to bring in the real Winter guns day 10.

GFS 18z however is going with the undercut just like 12z at 96h+ and the fast (er) track to bringing in the really cold arctic air.

For the cynics, they may have to put up with dumpings of snow  in marginal cool conditions of 0 to 3 C max by day and hard frosts by night before we can get at the typical British Winter of sub zero temps and 24/7 blizzard conditions. 

Edited December 28, 2020 by Mucka

[Zak M]

Don't show this run to The Express!!

      

Edited December 28, 2020 by Zak M

[Uncertainty]

Some people are running on to the pitch they think it’s all over...

@CreweColdcould teach those seasonal models a thing or two! He called this winter in August! The signs have been loud and clear in the modelling since late November, you can thank the Urals high for that. 

If anything like the EC46 comes off then the seasonals are toast. If they were right every winter it would be boring. And we know weather forecasting is anything but boring.

A huge victory this would be for human reasoning, interpretation and experience. 
 
Only downside I see in the medium term is GEFS/ GEPS go west based -NAO right at the end: It’s always going to be a risk but if the strat splits later which it *looks* 

as if it will do  then such a scenario would be but a blip in our best chance for deep, perhaps infamous cold for 10 years.

 

PS this chart is bonkers and incomparable with any synoptic in the NH DJF for a decade...

Edited December 28, 2020 by Uncertainy

[Hotspur62]

Just a quick question.Do you now think that the GFS is starting to take into account the SSW into account as we move into FI as the trend of colder temperatures is seemingly building?
 

In the short term the models continue to struggle with the system coming across Wednesday night into Thursday.The fascinating model watching continues but why is it always never simple predicting snow!

[Catacol]

2 hours ago, Met4Cast said:

Hot off the press! The latest EC46 update has blocked the Arctic off right through until week 4. Strongest signal yet!

I can't remember ever seeing such a persistent signal.

Extended cold becoming more likely as the days roll. Something fairly major is going to need to appear in the background forcings to prevent Jan 2021 becoming famously blocked, probably cold and hopefully snowy.

I found my hat yesterday. Have decided to order in more heating oil and another trailer of logs...............

[Allseasons-Si]

Je...sus

[Stu_London]

Wonder what the January 2021 CET would look like if the models and the background signals for the second half of the month come close to verifying. 

Got to be sub 2C, surely?

[Catacol]

2 hours ago, Griff said:

Not much to add... 

(Star Wars quote "stay on target"...) 

 

Feb 18 reversed for 10 days. This forecast is firming up on longer. I’m struggling to find the words............