Model Output Discussion - Into the new year

[sheikhy]

Gfs mean should not even look that good at 186 hours!!should be illegal

[kold weather]

Just looking through the first 10 days of Jan.

Needless to say if that run was correct we'd be below 0c CET for the first 10 days, and easily the coldest at that time of year since the Jan 10 cold spell.

[BelgianBlizzard]

3 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Would suggesting 1962 be pushing it for a comparison? (Answer=Yes )

And what were the uppers back then? I can't believe that's almost 60(!) years ago

[Don]

2 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

We are on the brink.. we are standing right on the brink of something potentially noteworthy and very, very special. 

All the ingredients are coming together in a way they haven't since 2009/2010 & we are staring down the barrel of a potentially exceptional January. We're so close.. but we're not there yet.

Definitely squeaky bum time!  Model watching at its best!

[radiohead]

Scotland is absolutely buried by the 18Z GFS

[kold weather]

3 minutes ago, Don said:

Definitely squeaky bum time!  Model watching at its best!

The key time period is between 96-120hrs. 

There is a little bit of energy that crosses to the north of the upper high, if it comes in too hot it could at the least delay the set-up a little (though I'l be honest given background conditions, it'd be a delay rather than stop) Of course if it develops once east of that area, it may in fact help to strengthen that high and speed things up.

 

Edited December 28, 2020 by kold weather

[Snowmadsam]

I thought I’d had a trouser accident but I spilt my water when I saw the 18z 

what an op so far, this does CLEARLY need to be kept an eye on in the medium term, as others have said models are showing up ingredients which could make this very very cold 

[AWD]

2 minutes ago, radiohead said:

Scotland is absolutely buried by the 18Z GFS

If ever you need a geography lesson on where the M4 is located, just look at any GFS snowfall chart. 

[Allseasons-Si]

7 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Gfs mean should not even look that good at 186 hours!!should be illegal

The gefs mean at 192...

it couldn't get any better and it is pushing towards the day ten EPS anomaly with that Greenland high,outstanding IMO.

 

Edited December 28, 2020 by Allseasons-si

[Duane S.]

Feet still firmly on the ground but...

Whilst nothing of note has actually happened just yet, and it may still end up flattering to deceive (as normal), be in no doubt, what we have here is a once in a decade (possibly generation) potential set up. This FAR from usual. The stars appear to be aligning in our favour.

This has more of a 1963 longevity feel about it than I can ever remember. Simply stunning Northern Hemisphere. 

We normally need a double six, we pretty much need anything bar a double one for a proper cold spell to develop now.

[Stu_London]

Just now, Mr Frost said:

Cmon Stu mate get real!  

You must still be on the mulled wine - we have three days of December left!

December 2010 was the coldest in one hundred years.

 

 

 

Compare the above to December 2020 for the majority of the UK so far...

Sorry I wasn't clear.

The cold spell being progged for Jan2021 has some similarities - mainly concerning the background signals around autumn. I did caveat with it not being as cold as December 2010 - agree - that was a brutal prolonged spell, the like of which I will be surprised to see again

[Met4Cast]

2 minutes ago, Mr Frost said:

Cmon Stu mate get real!  

You must still be on the mulled wine - we have three days of December left!

December 2010 was the coldest in one hundred years.

 

 

 

Compare the above to December 2020 for the majority of the UK so far...

I don't think he's saying this December month is going to match December 2010 lmao. He's saying that the up-coming cold spell has the potential to be as good as the 2010 freeze. 

[jamesbhx]

14 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

Yep,...spotted them

Short gefs ens showing a tight clustering of -8 towards the 4th Jan.

 

You do realise you've posted a GFS chart for a location in Germany, and not the UK?

Edited December 28, 2020 by jamesbhx

[Stu_London]

5 minutes ago, BelgianBlizzard said:

And what were the uppers back then? I can't believe that's almost 60(!) years ago

I wasn't there but my understanding was that they weren't all that low most of the time - perhaps -5C to -10C most of the time. There was lots of surface cold due to longevity of snow cover and slack pressure patterns. 

[Crackerjack]

34 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

This run has all the hallmarks of...

I’ve got Parental settings set to Max and as a result I’m not able to see that chart it’s just plain rude

icy cold even in my neck of the woods there Si 

[Howie]

There are reports that the siberian high is as strong as 1093 millibars, astonishing. Surely that should put the +EAMT and resulting amplification into overdrive and also help knock out the spv

Edited December 28, 2020 by Howie
Misspelling

[Optimus Prime]

9 minutes ago, Mr Frost said:

Cmon Stu mate get real!  

You must still be on the mulled wine - we have three days of December left!

December 2010 was the coldest in one hundred years.

Compare the above to December 2020 for the majority of the UK so far...

 

If he's comparing it by calendar month then the outcome may join December 2010 as being a month to record a negative anomaly since 1986.

Edited December 28, 2020 by Optimus Prime

[Allseasons-Si]

3 minutes ago, jamesbhx said:

You do realise you've posted a GFS chart for a location in Germany, and not the UK?

Oh!,yes i have,...SORRY peeps,here is the London ones and they still look cold

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

It’s just absolutely breathtaking at the moment! Best model watching since I’ve begun I think. Same kind of adrenaline I felt during the BFTE build up, or a juicy plume!! 

We are well overdue a 1963 or 1978 style blizzard that’s for sure. Many people will not know what will have hit them that’s the big difference. I feel that may be on its way, come mid January, when approaching lows from the S/SW at some point would inevitably try and push up. 

[Stu_London]

1 minute ago, Allseasons-si said:

Oh!,yes i have,...SORRY peeps,here is the London ones and they still look cold

Quite a bit more scatter which is interesting - I guess the nearer to the maritime influence, the more uncertainty.

[Stu_London]

3 minutes ago, Optimus Prime said:

If he's comparing it by calendar month then the outcome may join December 2010 as being a month to record a negative anomaly since 1986.

Its still a massive ask - but certainly best chance since 2010. 

[kold weather]

11 minutes ago, Stu_London said:

I wasn't there but my understanding was that they weren't all that low most of the time - perhaps -5C to -10C most of the time. There was lots of surface cold due to longevity of snow cover and slack pressure patterns. 

Yeah we had a big snow event towards the end of Decemb er which almost served as a major primer. 

From that point the surface cold just stagnated further and further. To the point that like Dec 10, even in airflows that don't look that cold, it was frigid!

I think at this point a reasonable worst case set-up probably would be the upper high being a little too close to the UK between 120-168hrs and then retrograding but not enough to draw in a proper cold feed. In that set-up we probably stay in a elongated easterly which probably will go northerly anyway once we get another trigger low coming down. Something like P21 on the GFS ensembles. It still remains cold throughout.

Edited December 28, 2020 by kold weather

[Allseasons-Si]

WOW!!!!

Look at that mean at day ten...

 

Edited December 28, 2020 by Allseasons-si

[Ice Day]

Meanwhile, the Control is out to 240.  I think I've seen enough.... it's all getting too much!

[Cassivellaunus]

44 minutes ago, Zak M said:

Don't show this run to The Express!!

      

they might actually get there headlines right for once!