Model Output Discussion - Into the new year

[Griff]

2 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

The op isn’t supported in the ens ..... there have been a lot of clusters recently and it’s been notable that the op has often sat in the bottom cluster days 8/10 - quite unusual. 

Am I right in assuming the majority maintain a colder outlook? 

[Sky Full]

Some great charts appearing for this winter, and it’s about time!   Now, I know this sort of thing is frowned upon by the purists, but you have to admit the similarities between these charts are uncanny.....

   
 

Of course, there was a much more prominent pool of deeper cold air to draw on in 1963, but it’s the general placement of ridges and troughs and the direction of flow which I am looking at.  I’m not predicting another winter like 1963 but it’s obvious we have the right set up to have a shot at whatever level of cold the 2020s are capable of developing, after all those years of climate change.

[AWD]

29 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

On the contrary...... The global models are honing in the channel for the heaviest precip - I wouldn’t expect the M4 to even see anything the way this is headed ! 
 

as the high res ones weren’t v far north anyway, I would expect them to be consistent when I have a gander 

Agree with the bolded bit.  

Just had a look at a few of the higher res models and, whilst there is still some disagreement with detail as you would expect with such a scenario, there is definitely a consensus to move any PPN further south compared to yesterday's global models forecast.

South Wales down into Somerset, Dorset and Southern Coastal counties looks a favourite this morning.

A snapshot at 19:00 tomorrow evening below of a few of them;

Edited December 29, 2020 by AWD

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

Snow row count going in the right direction...

 

Lets get a full house come Wednesday 12.

[bluearmy]

3 minutes ago, Griff said:

Am I right in assuming the majority maintain a colder outlook? 

in the 10/12 day period - yes.  Thereafter I expect the meteograms will show if the average max is creeping up.  Over the past few  runs, we’ve seen an uptick by a degree or so on the mean maxes. Of course we don’t live in a world where the mean is always right so we have to take other factors into account.  would be a surprise if we don’t have a battleground situation at some point .....we just want the cold to fight back to keep the battlefields  white rather than wet!  

[Scott Ingham]

11 minutes ago, AWD said:

Agree with the bolded bit.  

Just had a look at a few of the higher res models and, whilst there is still some disagreement with detail as you would expect with such a scenario, there is definitely a consensus to move any PPN further south compared to yesterday's global models forecast.

South Wales down into Somerset, Dorset and Southern Coastal counties looks a favourite this morning.

A snapshot at 19:00 tomorrow evening below of a few of them;

The Euro 4 doesnt even have the snow clipping the South Coast its more in the channel or France. Its touch and go but i think thats going south! I hope not now ive had my fix. Id like to see my southern friends get in on the action

Just as a side note the hermonie was the only one who had the snow hitting South Yorkshire and i believe it nailed Stokes so maybe a model to follow for tomorrow 

Edited December 29, 2020 by Scott Ingham

[tight isobar]

6 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:

The Euro 4 doesnt even have the snow clipping the South Coast its more in the channel or France. Its touch and go but i think thats going south! I hope not now ive had my fix. Id like to see my southern friends get in on the action

Well bias aside.. and honesty aloft... it’s a sinking low.. atm... where if ya live on a boat in the English chanel.. you’ll .. not only have to be off ya nut-. But you’ll get ya snow fix...all academic at this point.. as we know it’ll change.. for better for worse who knows.... @&£@. That last bit sounded like I was getting married???!!!

Edited December 29, 2020 by tight isobar

[IDO]

The gefs are faffing around quite early and by d8 there are numerous routes they meander off, regarding the heights to our north:

d8 gefs> d10> 

Certainly nothing as clean as we have been seeing in recent runs and it does seem when the models initially spot the synoptic of HLB they go into textbook runs. As we inject shortwaves and the ebb and flow of energy is resolved, they get far more messy. The favoured solution remains the Icelandic wedge at d8 and a return to the UK trough by d10 as the pattern creeps west (control and mean supports this).

By d13 it is less clear:

No sign of HLB'ing being predominant but we have the jet well south and the uppers reflecting that:

d13 means> 

It does look like the GH and retrogression were the models with their usual phantom blocking, but they were in FI so we should expect this. No sign of an Atlantic return and mostly no sign of the severe cold reaching our shores, which is the real issue this year; we will already have two great snowy synoptics yet no real cold to guarantee snow. Remains fluid but in a relatively good way so we could still see some great wintry weather but the usual caveats as this winter has been quite unusual!

[sheikhy]

Ecm not as good!!for me the model this morning is ukmo!!

[IDO]

The ecm op seems to lose the plot around d8, which has been its calling card of late, so one to ignore as an outlier by d10:

ecm ens>

[sheikhy]

I see why no ones mentioned the paralell!!got this feeling ecms gona be right!!not as confident this morning!!gota hang tight!!

[Met4Cast]

lmao a couple of slightly less stella runs from the output and everyone starts losing their minds, this forum is comical it really is. EC Op was on the milder side of the ensembles for later in the period. The cooling trend continues all the way to the 5th-6th January on the EPS mean before we see a little upstick due to a large amount of spread.

 

GEFS are still looking decent, albeit a slight shift southwards of the high on the means. If you'd been reading the forum myself, @Catacol and @Scott Ingham have all suggested that the ultra-blocked runs we had been seeing seemed "too soon", all we've seen is a slight push back on the models and perhaps a slight relaxation in the pattern in the 1st week of January that Scott & myself had expected to see. 

We're in a very good position. If we have to wait a few days longer then so be it.. 

Edited December 29, 2020 by Met4Cast

[Griff]

Just now, Met4Cast said:

lmao a couple of slightly less stella runs from the output and everyone starts losing their minds, this forum is comical it really is. EC Op was on the milder side of the ensembles for later in the period. The cooling trend continues all the way to the 5th-6th December on the EPS mean before we see a little upstick due to a large amount of spread.

 

GEFS are still looking decent, albeit a slight shift southwards of the high on the means. If you'd been reading the forum myself, @Catacol and @Scott Ingham have all suggested that the ultra-blocked runs we had been seeing seemed "too soon", all we've seen is a slight push back on the models and perhaps a slight relaxation in the pattern in the 1st week of January that Scott & myself had expected to see. 

We're in a very good position. If we have to wait a few days longer then so be it.. 

Would that be December 2021?  

[That ECM]

5 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

I see why no ones mentioned the paralell!!got this feeling ecms gona be right!!not as confident this morning!!gota hang tight!!

Have a  ️ And view pragmatically rather than emotionally. Hard for coldies I know. The data would suggest ECM has gone off on one, which IDO has shown.

[Met4Cast]

1 minute ago, Griff said:

Would that be December 2021?  

Damn, you got there before I managed to get the edit in!

[sheikhy]

Just now, That ECM said:

Have a  ️ And view pragmatically rather than emotionally. Hard for coldies I know. The data would suggest ECM has gone off on one, which IDO has shown.

Just gota flip back next run!!!need the parallel to improve on the last 2 runs as aswell!!over to the 06z!!

[nick sussex]

Same old story with these shortwaves !

The propensity for these Channel shortwave lows to cause drama knows no bounds . 

In terms of the more medium term , the GFS has dropped its quick retrogression , the ECM decides on a day ten phasing calamity and the UKMO at day 6 now looks the best of the big 3, from chump to champ in the space of 12hrs ! 

Who writes this stuff .......

[Griff]

5 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

Damn, you got there before I managed to get the edit in!

For prosperity! 

But seriously though, you're , and yes I've been following keenly, also surprised by the rapid progression. 

So far, the commentary has been pretty accurate (more than I would have imagined), so expecting a few wobbles. 

Chatter across the pond about West -nao also has my attention. 

[Scott Ingham]

1 minute ago, Met4Cast said:

lmao a couple of slightly less stella runs from the output and everyone starts losing their minds, this forum is comical it really is. EC Op was on the milder side of the ensembles for later in the period. The cooling trend continues all the way to the 5th-6th January on the EPS mean before we see a little upstick due to a large amount of spread.

 

GEFS are still looking decent, albeit a slight shift southwards of the high on the means. If you'd been reading the forum myself, @Catacol and @Scott Ingham have all suggested that the ultra-blocked runs we had been seeing seemed "too soon", all we've seen is a slight push back on the models and perhaps a slight relaxation in the pattern in the 1st week of January that Scott & myself had expected to see. 

We're in a very good position. If we have to wait a few days longer then so be it.. 

Hahaha! Yeah it always happens after a bad run! 

If bi polar hosted weather forums

We could well be right. AAM has nothing to stop it relaxing its grip the MJO is currently in COD till the end of the first week in January and weve felt the final effects of the previous mountain torque on the 21st of December.

Like me you and catacol said even if we get a relaxation of northern blocking we are forecast another monster eamt event tomorrow with a 10 day lag taking us to the 9th of december. The flattening shows up around the 5th and 6th.

My best bet and worst case scenario is scaled back mid atlantic heights between the 5th and the 9th before a resurgence 9th 10th onwards of northern blocking and the first drips of the ssw.

This may not even be that bad we atill have support for a greenland ridge and this in itself may well be due to a qtr but i agree buddy nothing to get too worried over. Even 63 and 47 had 3 or 4 day relaxations of high level blocking. The earth balances angular momentum out like that.

[Djdazzle]

At least a bit of a reality check may stop the ridiculous 1963 type posts.

We also need to stop the “it’s going to be a classic January etc.”

It may happen, but there are never any guarantees with the weather.

Also, these are 00z runs, which often seem to produce the least favourable synoptics for some reason!

[mulzy]

The extended EPS mean broadly similar to previous runs early on (days 10-13).  In the outer reaches though a prominent west based negative NAO seems to be setting up with heights into Iberia.  Something to keep an eye on.

[Ali1977]

STRAT warming below at day 3, FI on the GFS won’t be modelling any output off the back of this just yet - expect lots of chopping and changing beyond day 10-12.
All is looking good for coldies (especially compared to previous years) enjoy the pre very cold - cold spell as this may be a bonus before the proper cold arrives!!
Lots of snowy scenes out there on Social Media from accross the country already

 

And remember it’s still December, there’s plenty of winter left.

Edited December 29, 2020 by Ali1977

[Nick F]

Don't look at the 03z UKV if you're in the S/SE of England and hoping for snow tomorrow! No wonder the BBC forecasts haven't gone into detail.

Plenty of other features will bring some sleet/snow to parts of the UK rest of this week - but it looks like northern, central and western areas of Britain that will see this.

Longer term: the Atlantic ridge extends NE towards Scandi this weekend, turning the wind NEly then Ely, EC has more ridging over SE Europe than GFS - so tries to pump milder air north across eastern Europe which may mix in the easterly flow, GFS maintains lower heights further east across Europe, so not such an issue. Ens signal for the ridge/Block close to our north to retrograde next week towards Greenland/NE Canada. This may lead to a temporary relaxation of the blocking infuence, which is where the worry of west-based -NAO comes in - where low pressure may get too far north over NW Europe, blocking cold air from the N or NE. But great deal of uncertainty over this risk for now, with the continuation of cold flow from the N, NE or E still very likely next few weeks.

Edited December 29, 2020 by Nick F

[Beanz]

Massive spread in the ECM ensemble data from 4th Jan onwards today, is this just last minute nerves before the start of the show...

I did mention the shortwaves needed watching as they often cause a collapse at the very last minute, unfortunately my post was removed.  

 

 

[Anthony Burden]

4 minutes ago, Nick F said:

Don't look at the 03z UKV if you're in the S/SE of England and hoping for snow! No winder the BBC forecasts haven't going into detail.

Plenty of other features will bring some sleet/snow to parts of the UK rest of this week - but it looks like northern, central and western areas of Britain that will see this.

Longer term: the Atlantic ridge extends NE towards Scandi this weekend, turning the wind NEly then Ely, EC has more ridging over SE Europe than GFS - so tries to pump milder air north across eastern Europe which may mix in the easterly flow, GFS maintains lower heights further east across Europe, so not such an issue. Ens signal for the ridge/Block close to our north to retrograde next week towards Greenland/NE Canada. This may lead to a temporary relaxation of the blocking infuence, which is where the worry of west-based -NAO comes in - where low pressure may get too far north over NW Europe, blocking cold air from the N or NE. But great deal of uncertainty over this risk for now, with the continuation of cold flow from the N, NE or E still very likely next few weeks.

High Nick,

lots of uncertainty going into the latter end of the first week in January,along with SSW / possible disbursement/ split.

First signal from ECM of a little less cold in the outlook,but shrouded in uncertainty.