Model Output Discussion - Into the new year

[winterof79]

Well if it isn't the grab the shovel run again....trends and all that

[IDO]

Sharper Pacific  rolling-wave on the 06z which would be a great time to pop up during a HLB'ing phaze:

around d10> 

Would be a catalyst to aid a colder flow to our north.

[Griff]

GFSP shows the slower progression, and pushes things back a bit, I'd say equally valid and knowing our luck (imby not seen a single flake, not quite Winter's over / cancelled but caution advised etc, bah humbug) 

[Met4Cast]

8 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

Problem is, as most of us know, the gfs 06z run is historically unreliable. I hope for once it is spot on here but I have my doubts unfortunately. 

I don't think that has a whole lot of basis anymore - Perhaps in the past, but not anymore. There's no discernible difference between any of GFS runs in terms of accuracy.

[blizzard81]

Just now, Met4Cast said:

I don't think that has a whole lot of basis anymore - Perhaps in the past, but not anymore. There's no discernible difference between any of GFS runs in terms of accuracy.

I do hope you are right there. The 06 mean shows a much better easterly too. I will reserve judgement until the 12z run though. The good thing is that we don't have much time to wait until we know for sure. This is at day 5 to 6 now. 

[sheikhy]

Gfs joins ukmo at 144 hours!!lets hope for a better ecm!i cant help but think more changes on the way early on on the 12zs!!

[Froze were the Days]

A load of shortwaves turn up on the 06z at 240z onwards closing the Arctic floodgates north of Scotland...always seems to be something. What are people's take on the ECM (vastly different) from the last few runs?

[blizzard81]

1 minute ago, Froze were the Days said:

A load of shortwaves turn up on the 06z at 240z onwards closing the Arctic floodgates north of Scotland...always seems to be something. What are people's take on the ECM (vastly different) from the last few runs?

With regards to the ecm, you just never know. It has been known to be the first model to latch onto something and be spot on. On the other hand, tonight's run could be completely different. Personally I haven't been impressed with the performance/accuracy of the ecm ops so far this season. 

[winterof79]

06z high went on holiday too far = western based -nao

 

Al well into FI though

Edited December 29, 2020 by winterof79

[Griff]

I shall be ridiculed for posting this, but for a little bit of daftness and fun in FI, it seems GFSP allows the dream to live, which is all I need this morning after being screamed at by a 4 year old demanding his promised snow (whilst already asking Alexa "how long is it to Christmas, presumably 2021,) 

 

[ALL ABOARD]

7 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

I do hope you are right there. The 06 mean shows a much better easterly too. I will reserve judgement until the 12z run though. The good thing is that we don't have much time to wait until we know for sure. This is at day 5 to 6 now. 

Marco did say last night that both the 6z and 18z have less inputted data than the 00z and 12z. 

 

[Eskimo]

Anyone else finding that the ECM is becoming increasingly unreliable? We all joke about the GFS being the comedian but I've found it to be far more reliable (up to 10 days) than the ECM.

[Battleground Snow]

The mean is MUCH better at 180 compared to the 00z run, the jet tracking much further south. Expect big swings ahead. Best guidance is to watch the EPS in my opinion for less drama in FI

[blizzard81]

1 minute ago, ALL ABOARD said:

Marco did say last night that both the 6z and 18z have less inputted data than the 00z and 12z. 

 

I thought as much. Thanks for letting me know

[sukayuonsensnow]

1 minute ago, winterof79 said:

06z high went on holiday too far = western based -nao

Yup. Unlike the GFS18 last night, this finger of cold from the north went too far west into the Atlantic, the GH also went more west and weakened somewhat, and with low pressure moving in from the Atlantic it draws up southerly winds and milder weather for most.

Something to watch in the coming days, on:

a) if we get an area of cold from somewhere else in the NH, and

b) where exactly it goes and how this will affect the weather patterns in Europe and over the Atlantic

Of course this is far out, but if the trends continue on a colder air source getting closer to Europe/Atlantic Ocean it is something to watch.

[snowking]

12 minutes ago, Griff said:

GFSP shows the slower progression, and pushes things back a bit, I'd say equally valid and knowing our luck (imby not seen a single flake, not quite Winter's over / cancelled but caution advised etc, bah humbug) 

In terms of timelines, even this seems a little quicker than I had anticipated, but feels far more realistic.

We can (hopefully) see from the variation in runs so far today that whilst EAMT’s and SSW’s allow us to project the broad scale pattern (retrogression of heights, continental location of troughs), the devil for a tiny little island like ours will always be in the detail - and it is for that reason that it is pointless looking beyond a few days for the exact details. Details such as how far North/West will any HLB set up will continue to ebb and flow for many more days to come yet (as will, I suspect subsequently, the mood in here!). In fact I would be surprised if we knew with any real confidence what the outcome of the ever mentioned “background signals” will be any time before the 5th January at the absolute earliest.

In the meantime, for as long as the models continue to suggest retrogressing heights and a trough dropping somewhere to our east, we know we’re at least in the game.

[Matt H]

5 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

The mean is MUCH better at 180 compared to the 00z run, the jet tracking much further south. Expect big swings ahead. Best guidance is to watch the EPS in my opinion for less drama in FI

Yes the mean looks like a stonker compared to the 00z FWIW. Both still good though.

00z:

06z:

Edited December 29, 2020 by Frosty Winter

[Howie]

5 minutes ago, Griff said:

I shall be ridiculed for posting this, but for a little bit of daftness and fun in FI, it seems GFSP allows the dream to live, which is all I need this morning after being screamed at by a 4 year old demanding his promised snow (whilst already asking Alexa "how long is it to Christmas, presumably 2021,) 

 

Is it me or do these match up pretty well 

[feb1991blizzard]

Can someone tell me what is the one thing that is great on the 6z GFS though??

[Battleground Snow]

Just now, Frosty Winter said:

Yes the mean looks like a stonker compared to the 00z. Both good though.

00z:

06z:

Yes it's good our options currenly somewhere between a little bit cold and snowy and cold and snowy

[Griff]

2 minutes ago, Howie said:

Is it me or do these match up pretty well 

Well just for fun it's showing this... 

So from this morning's runs ill keep the take away thought that neither terrible fi or proper fantasy have either happened yet or likely to...

[Lukesluckybunch]

3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Can someone tell me what is the one thing that is great on the 6z GFS though??

Do you not think it's good run then?

[ALL ABOARD]

4 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Can someone tell me what is the one thing that is great on the 6z GFS though??

Is the split back? 

[Howie]

1 minute ago, Griff said:

Well just for fun it's showing this... 

So from this morning's runs ill keep the take away thought that neither terrible fi or proper fantasy have either happened yet or likely to...

What I take from this is that we'd actually benefit from the slower evolution as the quicker evolution sends everything too Far west

[feb1991blizzard]

2 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

Do you not think it's good run then?

Overall no - The strat looked very good on the meteociel 10mb temperature charts but looking at the heights, still no big split unfortunately, saga to be continued though.

EDIT : getting there though right at end.

Edited December 29, 2020 by feb1991blizzard