Model Output Discussion - Into the new year

[Tim Bland]

Lovely easterly in a weeks time. I get the frustration on here from some. Over 50% of the population haven’t seen a single flake yet and it’s always jam tomorrow. It’s been an awesome winter so far...on the models and in FI !! but lots of people are now realising one third of the winter is almost gone and they have barely had a frost. Hopefully Jan will make up for that! 

[blizzard81]

4 minutes ago, Frosty Winter said:

GFS 06z looks like an improvement early on with the ridge further north after the less positive 00z runs, hope it’s correct.

Yep, I'm liking the constant last minute upgrades to this weekends/early next week's easterly. 

[IDO]

Better phasing of lower heights on this one preventing the Atlantic linking with the Icelandic high and drawing that west:

06z> 0z>

We get rid of that SW>NE Atlantic ridge of the 0z. So off on another journey and see where this takes us?

[North East Blizzard]

Much further north after the overnight wobbles, could push into Greenland here

[Battleground Snow]

However the para sticks to its guns with the pressure at a lower latitude, lots of entropy going on at the moment.

 

[Griff]

GFS vs GFSP 

[Jason M]

1 minute ago, sheikhy said:

That is some 06z up to 168 hours!!looks like we moving heights directly to our north and not fully into greenland!!

Not sure how to post it but the temperature profile across Europe is astonishing at 186 and still the Russian high feeds air up from the south.
 

[KTtom]

Don't know whether to focus at what's coming from the north or from the south, either way the latter frames of the run are setting themselves up very nicely indeed. 

[winterof79]

GFS 144Z

UKMO144Z

That's enough for me.

[Johnp]

3 minutes ago, Jason M said:

Not sure how to post it but the temperature profile across Europe is astonishing at 186 and still the Russian high feeds air up from the south.
 

What is astonishing about it?

[ancientsolar]

Much preferring this GFS run over the last 2 runs, ~ although I am very divided over this run compared to the 12:00 GFS from yesterday - this run seems to give us a bit more reliability regarding temperatures, - the 12:00 would appear to have given us an absolute pasting of snow and windB's .. but could have created a slush puppy for others -- now let's hope we get a final run in between the two of these runs ! 

[winterof79]

Our "UK" High must be in Tier 2 as its determined to go on Holiday 

[SLEETY]

This run is excellent and the 0600 is normally the worst run of the day regarding cold

[ALL ABOARD]

GFSP holds on to the high for longer.. 

In turn it allows much colder air to develop to our north.. 

Can we direct it towards us? 

[winterof79]

5 minutes ago, Jason M said:

Not sure how to post it but the temperature profile across Europe is astonishing at 186 and still the Russian high feeds air up from the south.
 

Boiling it isn't

[Met4Cast]

Hopefully the 06z has calmed some nerves this morning..

[Battleground Snow]

Hmmm, the control and mean improve the pressure around Iceland in the early stages too, hopefully the 00z runs were just a small speed bump

 

 

[Tim Bland]

1 minute ago, winterof79 said:

Our "UK" High must be in Tier 2 as its determined to go on Holiday 

It’s having a staycation on the GFS(p) though

[SLEETY]

2 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

Our "UK" High must be in Tier 2 as its determined to go on Holiday 

 meant to be here by saturday wasnt it,instead we get easterly winds..

Edited December 29, 2020 by SLEETY

[Jason M]

3 minutes ago, Johnp said:

What is astonishing about it?

It’s just so damn warm. Much of Europe is showing positive temp anomalies of 6 to 8c.

[Griff]

1 minute ago, Tim Bland said:

It’s having a staycation on the GFS(p) though

Quite, if this was a year ago we'd be salivating, but I'd say the GFS and GFSP aren't in agreement in FI 

[blizzard81]

2 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

Hopefully the 06z has calmed some nerves this morning..

Problem is, as most of us know, the gfs 06z run is historically unreliable. I hope for once it is spot on here but I have my doubts unfortunately. 

[sukayuonsensnow]

That's a hefty snowstorm over central France on the GFS6 through middle of next week.

Yes we had something like that in northern England (mostly) on last nights GFS18, but it is interesting that again a low pressure has become stuck in the same area for a prolonged period bringing snow.

Let's see if this trend continues in other model runs through today and where the low ends up.

[winterof79]

May be some further surprises for some this pm

 

[sukayuonsensnow]

GFS6 - where's this low pressure over Scandinavia headed? Seems to be bringing a finger of that colder air with it....

 

Edit: The way there's a low next to it moving into the NW of Scotland, and also watching the low over Europe on this one.

Edited December 29, 2020 by sukayuonsensnow