Model Output Discussion - Into the new year

[tight isobar]

1 hour ago, Kentspur said:

Get in! Fantastic Harmonie❄? sweetspot very similar to GEM 12z yesterday 

It’ll do me pal... ?

[Cheshire Freeze]

There is some movement in the GEFS- not as assured as the 18z suite...

18z-

Edited December 29, 2020 by CreweCold

[tight isobar]

Gefs 00z 500s /thermos.. very very minor inhibitions.. but stonking-overall.. and positively dreamland synoptics over given pasts

Edited December 29, 2020 by tight isobar

[Ali1977]

Day 12 mean looks very impressive, starting to get those cold uppers in.

Edited December 29, 2020 by Ali1977

[tight isobar]

The vents uppers.. well into January... the 10hpa around now..!! Stark..stark indeed!!!  Zonal winds turnaround.. and the paint dripping IS underway!!!!!!!.. we are seriously likely to be in the game BIG... on we move... ecm ooz/6zs etc......ecm- 10hpa zonals @baseline

Edited December 29, 2020 by tight isobar

[northwestsnow]

GEM gets the thumbs up...

[Tim Bland]

GEM is my pick of the bunch this morning...

[That ECM]

T144 all 3.  That’ll do for now.

[Osbourne One-Nil]

Let’s make a good start to today shall we? We all know if our post is off topic. Some of us even say as much in the post....yet still post. Please, there’s a thread for pretty much everything here...just choose the right one!

[Griff]

55 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

GEM is my pick of the bunch this morning...

Definitely looking forward to see where things go later today, as it feels the only way is up, after the highs of the pub run. Gem is leading the way! 

Edited December 29, 2020 by Griff

[Kentspur]

Whats going on here on ECM at day 8? Is this what the Met were on about high pressure gets in to the North over Scotland

Edited December 29, 2020 by Kentspur

[bluearmy]

I need to make a post to reign in some of the extreme ones I’ve read over the past 24 hours 

whilst the next 10 days or so looks wintry across the country, much of the low ground snowfall will be borderline. That’s a toss of a coin as to a slushy mess or akin to what parts of the west mids saw yesterday. 
 

to say that we aren’t looking at a west based neg nao as week two progresses is to be making predictions that the nwp isn’t currently showing.  That’s ok if you can back it up.  At the moment, I would say that as week two moves into week 3 there is as much chance of the jet pivoting saw/ne across the U.K. as there is of the cold plunging south and encompassing nw Europe.  To sustain the cold we need the southern arm to stay through s Europe before any recurve ne. One hopes that downwelling from the ssw will help in this regard. of course to even be suggesting that we have a 50/50 chance of deep cold is pretty amazing for the U.K.  a caveat here is that even if the jet heads ne, the Scots are quite likely to stay on the cold side of the trough (snowline somewhere) 

It could well be that we see a relaxation of the cold as the jet does come ne across us as we approach mid month but that would not necessarily be game over - at some point I would expect the jet to drop back south as we should see that reversal work it’s way down with a wave into the trop later in jan.  

 

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

The GFS has the band slightly further North on the 0z bringing the M4 into play more. No more further corrections North!

[Griff]

22 minutes ago, That ECM said:

T144 all 3.  That’ll do for now.

Being realistic, satisfactory up to this point. Expecting massive swings in FI before anything appears resolved...

[That ECM]

2 minutes ago, Griff said:

Being realistic, satisfactory up to this point. Expecting massive swings in FI before anything appears resolved...

More than satisfactory I would say. Many are going to see falling snow. Numerous will see it settle. Patience is needed moving forward which is good cause coldies looking for deep cold have loads of patience.

[tight isobar]

I keep hearing the notions troughs embeded.. which there certainly will be.. but a swerve on skirting/incoming features!!!..  anyway tomorrow needs watching!.. the gfs take this morning.. as we know.. up n down will be of forefront. 

[bluearmy]

8 minutes ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

The GFS has the band slightly further North on the 0z bringing the M4 into play more. No more further corrections North!

On the contrary...... The global models are honing in the channel for the heaviest precip - I wouldn’t expect the M4 to even see anything the way this is headed ! 
 

as the high res ones weren’t v far north anyway, I would expect them to be consistent when I have a gander 

[TSNWK]

This morning's ECM applies the brakes with a shuddering stop.

Heights fail to gain any application until 240 and even then there is a low to the south scooping up milder air with the green touching the south east. 

 

 

[Griff]

1 minute ago, That ECM said:

More than satisfactory I would say. Many are going to see falling snow. Numerous will see it settle. Patience is needed moving forward which is good cause coldies looking for deep cold have loads of patience.

Exactly this, as much as mods asking for posts in the appropriate thread, this should be pinned! 

FI seems a bit wobbly compared to last night, but I expect all change come lunchtime, exciting times. 

[That ECM]

9 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

On the contrary...... The global models are honing in the channel for the heaviest precip - I wouldn’t expect the M4 to even see anything the way this is headed ! 
 

as the high res ones weren’t v far north anyway, I would expect them to be consistent when I have a gander 

 

[northwestsnow]

Well, I'm going to say GFS is much more preferable to EC this morning ...

Those heights across SE Europe are not helping one bit on EC...

Of course its one EC det ..

Hopefully an outlier.. 

On a brighter note its snowing and we have a lovely white carpet .

Edited December 29, 2020 by northwestsnow

[bluearmy]

1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

Well, I'm going to say GFS is much more preferable to EC this morning ...

Those heights across SE Europe are not helping one bit on EC...

Of course its one EC det ..

Hopefully an outlier.. 

probably too quick in the evolution but that’s definitely in the envelope as week 2 progresses in the ens 

[northwestsnow]

Just now, bluearmy said:

probably too quick in the evolution but that’s definitely in the envelope as week 2 progresses in the ens 

Two ways of looking at that.

Glass half full we still have a week long  cold spell in the bag.

Glass half empty, I want more ..

[Scott Ingham]

43 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

I need to make a post to reign in some of the extreme ones I’ve read over the past 24 hours 

whilst the next 10 days or so looks wintry across the country, much of the low ground snowfall will be borderline. That’s a toss of a coin as to a slushy mess or akin to what parts of the west mids saw yesterday. 
 

to say that we aren’t looking at a west based neg nao as week two progresses is to be making predictions that the nwp isn’t currently showing.  That’s ok if you can back it up.  At the moment, I would say that as week two moves into week 3 there is as much chance of the jet pivoting saw/ne across the U.K. as there is of the cold plunging south and encompassing nw Europe.  To sustain the cold we need the southern arm to stay through s Europe before any recurve ne. One hopes that downwelling from the ssw will help in this regard. of course to even be suggesting that we have a 50/50 chance of deep cold is pretty amazing for the U.K.  a caveat here is that even if the jet heads ne, the Scots are quite likely to stay on the cold side of the trough (snowline somewhere) 

It could well be that we see a relaxation of the cold as the jet does come ne across us as we approach mid month but that would not necessarily be game over - at some point I would expect the jet to drop back south as we should see that reversal work it’s way down with a wave into the trop later in jan.  

 

Looking through the ensembles i agree there is a growing amount of runs for something approaching the back end of the GFS run. It all did seem a little quick when the mountain torque event onlt really gets going properly tomorrow but i factored in the possibility of a small wave from goings on high up for the more east beased greenland and icelandic highs on show the last two days. It is roughly 50/50 however as you say though so too early to call either way yet from the end of next week

Its still snowing btw and turning into an event!

Ive passed 5cms now its way more than the dusting i was forecast!

Edited December 29, 2020 by Scott Ingham

[bluearmy]

10 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Two ways of looking at that.

Glass half full we still have a week long  cold spell in the bag.

Glass half empty, I want more ..

The op isn’t supported in the ens  mean ..... there have been a lot of clusters recently and it’s been notable that the op has often sat in the bottom cluster days 8/10 - quite unusual. 
 

the eps mean day 10 is bringing the cold south to our east so you could squint at that day 10 chart and brush off some of the darker blues/purples and shift the lw trough 300 miles east ....

Edited December 29, 2020 by bluearmy