Model Output Discussion - Into the new year

[Snowman.]

What needs to be discussed is how the models usually remove blocks incredibly quickly. Think of the Russian high, how it was constantly undermodelled with lows trying to just push through it. When you see in FI large blocks vanish quickly as lows just barge through them (especially the GFS) we need to keep that in mind.

[Uncertainty]

2 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:

A top 10 UK winter!

Was called 3 weeks ago and is definitely called now! 

The question is? 

How far up the top 10 leader board does it go?

My prediction.

Number 3 behind 63 and 47.

Better than 2010 for the sheer length of time we will remain below average and because it will happen in the best month. January!

Chaces just increase with every run.

Never have tropical signals and the strat done such a beautifully choreagraphed dance to unfold for me a minimum of 4 weeks of weather porn!

Happy Scotty!

What a year to get involved on this board!

Yes Scott as you said UK high evolving to Greeny with time. Fill in an application form at Exeter ASAP

The EC46 members have put their order In at the Winter hotel and they’d like a  stonking -NAO for starter, main and dessert!

The GEFS, sitting at the far table, take a whiff and say “We want what they’re avin!”

 

[Allseasons-Si]

24 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:

A top 10 UK winter!

Was called 3 weeks ago and is definitely called now! 

The question is? 

How far up the top 10 leader board does it go?

My prediction.

Number 3 behind 63 and 47.

Better than 2010 for the sheer length of time we will remain below average and because it will happen in the best month. January!

Chaces just increase with every run.

Never have tropical signals and the strat done such a beautifully choreagraphed dance to unfold for me a minimum of 4 weeks of weather porn!

Happy Scotty!

What a year to get involved on this board!

Welcome aboard,...Scotty,i take it that you have had a good kip

Spock seems to think it's logical

the 18z gefs ens are out and there is a lesser tendency for the outliers in fl.

just viewed the pressure over the southern tip of Greenland

 

 

 

Edited December 29, 2020 by Allseasons-si

[londonblizzard]

Great charts, especially the sheer duration of the cold spell, but upper temps certainly have room for improvement (speaking as a londoner that generally needs it a bit colder than everyone else)

[Scott Ingham]

1 hour ago, Stu_London said:

I wasn't there but my understanding was that they weren't all that low most of the time - perhaps -5C to -10C most of the time. There was lots of surface cold due to longevity of snow cover and slack pressure patterns. 

Correct.

-5 - -10 most of the time. Its the year that shows once cold is fully entranched past 10-14 days plus it creates snow chances and cold on systems that would be semi marginal after a 3 day cold spell. Its why atm if we just hold on to cold the snowier spells will increase as everything becomes less n less marginal

[Allseasons-Si]

I am feeling blue,yes,...blue in the face by a cold wind chill if this cold spell comes off...

the greens are getting cancelled out on every run now,this is truly remarkable  

Edited December 29, 2020 by Allseasons-si

[Mapantz]

58 minutes ago, Crackerjack said:

Wow. According to the Guinness book of records -

1083.8mb

The highest barometric pressure ever recorded was 1083.8mb (32 in) at Agata, Siberia, Russia (alt. 262m or 862ft) on 31 December 1968.

if correct then 1093 would be astonishing !!!

That's the record below 750 metres. The record for above 750 metres is 1084.8 hPa. 
Tsetsen Uul is over 2200 metres above sea level.

[Howie]

Just now, Allseasons-si said:

I am feeling blue,yes blue in the face by a cold wind chill if this cold spell comes off...

the greens are getting cancelled out on every run now,this is truly remarkable  

This is getting to be quite remarkable 

[95 Degrees]

8 minutes ago, londonblizzard said:

Great charts, especially the sheer duration of the cold spell, but upper temps certainly have room for improvement (speaking as a londoner that generally needs it a bit colder than everyone else)

Same here on the South Coast. We are close, but not there yet. Personally even a repeat of January '13 or Feb/March 18 would be great, it doesn't have to be Dec '10. We are trending in the right direction. 

[phil nw.]

14 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

I am feeling blue,yes,...blue in the face by a cold wind chill if this cold spell comes off...

the greens are getting cancelled out on every run now,this is truly remarkable  

I was looking at the projected 2m temps earlier off the 00z combined ens. 

London low single figures maxs. 

Berlin, Warsaw going sub zero daytime soon. 

Signs that Europe further east going into the freezer which is a sign of things to come I think. 

[Scott Ingham]

1 hour ago, Uncertainy said:

Listening in to Eric Webb on Twitter and the it Looks like the world record for hPa is going to go in Mongolia - a station ‘Tsetsen Uul’ reporting 1093.5mb.

We could also have a record breaking low in the Pacific in the mid 920s.

No wonder the fire is about to start in the Strat.

Huge hemispheric happenings leading up to the Atlantic shake down. There’s serious forcing, and thus confidence, for a serious -NAO here...

 

Yes.

This is what caused the monster EAMT!

Imagine all them moderate wave breaks putting the vortex on its knees followed by that!

Well it gives us this upcoming ssw!

To think the full effects of the ssw havnt even filtered into the models yet...

Imagine getting to the middle of january off the back of a cold 15-17 days to find a split funneling siberian air over us.

Yeah. Beyind thinking isnt it (although we still dont fully know how it will effect the trop yet, just an idea that it should reinforce current conditions)

[Scott Ingham]

48 minutes ago, Uncertainy said:

Yes Scott as you said UK high evolving to Greeny with time. Fill in an application form at Exeter ASAP

The EC46 members have put their order In at the Winter hotel and they’d like a  stonking -NAO for starter, main and dessert!

The GEFS, sitting at the far table, take a whiff and say “We want what they’re avin!”

 

Hahaha! I think im some way short of the Exeter boys mate! Id normally get way more wrong than right just like most who give a long range forecast a go.

I think this was easy to forecast as soon as the expected tooing and throwing of the tropical pattern became visibile at the end of november and we reached a stage to feel confident the atmosphere wasnt going to couple to a la nina type behavour. Bouts of amplification and a significant ssw are consequences of this. What has happened is pure luck. When the mjo has died off a significant mountain torque event has dropped in to prop up the AAM and vice versa and it just so happens when AAM looks to drop from this current mountain torque event the ssw is kicking in along with another mjo passage predicted btw at the end of the first week january

Board. Enjoy january and probably a good chunk of february and make the most of it because the chances of being this lucky to overlap several tropical events at just the right time with stratospheric events are very very low. If we ever had an opportunity to relive another 63 for longevity believe me this year is it.

These things i have knowledge on arent normally so easy ajd obvious to see. Most with better knowledge and experience than me would do a way better job than i could ever do. Although ill never stop trying to learn!

[Scott Ingham]

59 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

Welcome aboard,...Scotty,i take it that you have had a good kip

Spock seems to think it's logical

the 18z gefs ens are out and there is a lesser tendency for the outliers in fl.

just viewed the pressure over the southern tip of Greenland

 

 

 

Hahaha i have indeed and also beem very busy with my normal job today! Unfortunately i dont always get that sort of time to obsess on my favourite hobby! 

The models are doing what we need them to do to see out this potentially exceptional month!

[SMU]

GFS 48 > 54

[Kentspur]

Get in! Fantastic Harmonie❄? sweetspot very similar to GEM 12z yesterday 

Edited December 29, 2020 by Kentspur

[Mucka]

UKMO looking good, the high slightly further NW than previous and looking good for retrogression, next stop Greenland.

 

 

GFS 144 looking good as well, replete  (this word did not mean what I thought it meant!)  complete with cheeky little feature that would interest those in the SE

 I think UKMO looks like it would be a cleaner transition

 

Edited December 29, 2020 by Mucka

[Cheshire Freeze]

18 minutes ago, Mucka said:

UKMO looking good, the high slightly further NW than previous and looking good for retrogression, next stop Greenland.

 

 

GFS 144 looking good as well, replete  (this word did not mean what I thought it meant!)  complete with cheeky little feature that would interest those in the SE

 I think UKMO looks like it would be a cleaner transition

 

GFS looks to be going the slower route to a GH

[Scott Ingham]

The GFS has 6 shortwaves between Canada and Greenland! Is it doing its usual thing of overblowing these?

Should still be okay just a day or 2 slower

[Mucka]

3 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

GFS looks to be going the slower route to a GH

Yeah agreed. I prefer the UKMO 144. Looks primed. 

It is great to haggling over two Wintry runs though.

[Mucka]

5 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:

The GFS has 6 shortwaves between Canada and Greenland! Is it doing its usual thing of overblowing these?

Should still be okay just a day or 2 slower

 

There is still quite a bit of run to run variation, as long as all roads lead to Rome...

[Scott Ingham]

1 minute ago, Mucka said:

 

There is still quite a bit of run to run variation, as long as all roads lead to Rome...

And at that range to be expected.

Timings and shortwaves always take time to be be sorted out. 

As you say good that the overall pattern amd direction of travel is staying the same!

[Cheshire Freeze]

Hard going this run with a mid Atlantic HP

[tight isobar]

Tweaks n all that!!   But two snaps both mid/long range that truly keep the juices flowing.. January.. WILL be “noteworthy “ .. for sure!!! @incoming

[Scott Ingham]

3 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Hard going this run with a mid Atlantic HP

Never truly makes it to Greenland.

We need to hang fire before calling the quicker route to cold.

Would make more sense to me on when the next round of amp was to kick. 

I know myself catacol and met4 thought it was 4 or 5 days early off the back of the eamt but its only one run and the ukmo looked good and the gfs followed the others next one after the diabolical one sunday morning

[Mucka]

5 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Hard going this run with a mid Atlantic HP

Tortuous.

Here is GFS mean set against the Op and UKMO