Yorkshire and E England regional discussion

[Summer18]

Looks like the sun has started to beef up some light showers

[terrier]

9 minutes ago, Cheese Rice said:

Looking at all the charts it's going to be quite marginal especially for low lying areas. 

Even up at LBA at 200m it's going to be 1.c for most of the event. 

I don't think anyone should get too optimistic just in case it goes left. 

Wise words indeed. I think a few will be left disappointed with this upcoming spell. As you say if very marginal for many low lying areas. Even up here in Huddersfield I think we are probably looking at a few slushy deposits. My guess would be 3-5cm up on the higher parts of the region and mainly a slushy covering for most other low lying areas. Certainly can’t see much in the way of heavy falls of snow widely. 

[missyb1]

Flying out of LBA Thursday morning. What time do you recon any snow will be falling. We need to be there about 6.30am only a few miles to drive. Just my luck to be away when there’s chance of a decent day of snow. 

[SouthYorks]

MetO Weather Warning for Thursday and Friday was updated at 11.09 this morning and judging by their description they sound confident of snow for all areas, with substantial amounts for higher ground.   It’ll be worth keeping an eye on this tomorrow to see if emphasis of wording changes based on latest model outputs.

1 minute ago, missyb1 said:

Flying out of LBA Thursday morning. What time do you recon any snow will be falling. We need to be there about 6.30am only a few miles to drive. Just my luck to be away when there’s chance of a decent day of snow. 

Based on latest runs, you’ll be there well before it arrives.  Expected into south of the region from around 9’ish.

[missyb1]

1 minute ago, SouthYorks said:

MetO Weather Warning for Thursday and Friday was updated at 11.09 this morning and judging by their description they sound confident of snow for all areas, with substantial amounts for higher ground.   It’ll be worth keeping an eye on this tomorrow to see if emphasis of wording changes based on latest model outputs.

Based on latest runs, you’ll be there well before it arrives.  Expected into south of the region from around 9’ish.

Thank you.  

[Love Snow]

11 minutes ago, Summer18 said:

Looks like the sun has started to beef up some light showers

Had a few flakes in the air this afternoon quite a warm feel in the sun

[A Face like Thunder]

My brother sent me some media photos from the N Yorkshire Moors around Harry Potter / Heartbeat territory at Goathland. Snow wasn't deep but looked spectacular. 

[Summer18]

12 minutes ago, Love Snow said:

Had a few flakes in the air this afternoon quite a warm feel in the sun

Yes same here, only snow I’ve seen this year! 

[Guest]

25 minutes ago, terrier said:

Wise words indeed. I think a few will be left disappointed with this upcoming spell. As you say if very marginal for many low lying areas. Even up here in Huddersfield I think we are probably looking at a few slushy deposits. My guess would be 3-5cm up on the higher parts of the region and mainly a slushy covering for most other low lying areas. Certainly can’t see much in the way of heavy falls of snow widely. 

Why do you think this? It contrasts all the models and indeed warnings from professional meteorologists.

[Yorkshirepudding]

26 minutes ago, missyb1 said:

Flying out of LBA Thursday morning. What time do you recon any snow will be falling. We need to be there about 6.30am only a few miles to drive. Just my luck to be away when there’s chance of a decent day of snow. 

I’m flying out Friday morning early hours so I’ve booked the travel lodge over the road and going to go up before the worst is due to start around 12:00pm You should be absolutely fine Thursday am

Edited March 7, 2023 by Yorkshirepudding
Wrong time

[Cold Winter]

29 minutes ago, terrier said:

Wise words indeed. I think a few will be left disappointed with this upcoming spell. As you say if very marginal for many low lying areas. Even up here in Huddersfield I think we are probably looking at a few slushy deposits. My guess would be 3-5cm up on the higher parts of the region and mainly a slushy covering for most other low lying areas. Certainly can’t see much in the way of heavy falls of snow widely. 

I disagree and think West Yorkshire, particularly areas >100m, and the western half of North Yorkshire, will see some substantial snow unless there’s a significant shift in position. It’s low lying places east of the A1 that I think will be more marginal and less likely to do well.

Edited March 7, 2023 by Cold Winter

[missyb1]

1 minute ago, Yorkshirepudding said:

I’m flying out Friday morning early hours so I’ve booked the travel lodge over the road and going to go up before the worst is due to start around 15:00. You should be absolutely fine Thursday am

Oh lovely. I had that as a plan b, thank you. Enjoy  

[Schnee]

I'm keeping an eye on things closely, given I drive for a living.  Hopefully signs are evident of how bad it'll be on Thursday morning. There's a risk for workers to be stuck as alot don't believe or know it could be potentially bad.

[terrier]

4 minutes ago, Cold Winter said:

I disagree and think West Yorkshire, particularly areas >100m, and the western half of North Yorkshire, will see some substantial snow unless there’s a significant shift in position. It’s low lying places east of the A1 that I think will be more marginal and less likely to do well.

I guess time will tell. But in my opinion this won’t amount to much. But I would be happy to be proved wrong. I have been wrong in the past lol. 

[Yorkshirepudding]

Just now, terrier said:

I guess time will tell. But in my opinion this won’t amount to much. But I would be happy to be proved wrong. I have been wrong in the past lol. 

There have been some models shifting the low slightly south if this happens we will all be in the game for longer. If the shift is slightly north then southern and eastern areas might not do as well. However I feel it’s going to be a disruptive event for most potentially very disruptive if the low firms up more amplified to give more convection along with a slight shift south. I’m concerned however as this could cancel my flight if this happens so even as a coldie and snow lover for once I’m hoping the worst doesn’t happen. Only thing is I’ve got a feeling it will especially for my location and the Airport.. 

[terrier]

1 minute ago, Yorkshirepudding said:

There have been some models shifting the low slightly south if this happens we will all be in the game for longer. If the shift is slightly north then southern and eastern areas might not do as well. However I feel it’s going to be a disruptive event for most potentially very disruptive if the low firms up more amplified to give more convection along with a slight shift south. I’m concerned however as this could cancel my flight if this happens so even as a coldie and snow lover for once I’m hoping the worst doesn’t happen. Only thing is I’ve got a feeling it will especially for my location and the Airport.. 

I hope it doesn’t affect your flight and we’re ever you are travelling hope you have a great time and is slightly warmer then Yorkshire lol  

[bryan629]

Just a thought, as the front moves in with the associated low.. is it possible it could stall and pivot, just like in March 2013. 

[The PIT]

Well the track of the low is now more SSE  rather then NNE which today keeps us nicely in the fire line. To be honest there seems to be good agreement between the GFS and UKMO so will the No.1 model ECM trash it all. This could be a major event or a major let down. Either way we have a more interesting few days of march which outdo Jan and Feb combined.

Bad news for neighbours if it does turn up I've got a chest cold so won't be clearing the Snow of the drive or the road.

[Empire Of Snow]

5 minutes ago, bryan629 said:

Just a thought, as the front moves in with the associated low.. is it possible it could stall and pivot, just like in March 2013. 

Yes it will pivot according to the latest charts. I don't remember 2013 as I wasn't at the region but there are a few similarities to the Dec 2021 event. 

Correction Jan 2021.

Edited March 7, 2023 by Empire Of Snow

[Cold Winter]

13 minutes ago, terrier said:

I guess time will tell. But in my opinion this won’t amount to much. But I would be happy to be proved wrong. I have been wrong in the past lol. 

Hope I’m wrong too and get a foot of snow but quite unlikely 

[cheese]

22 minutes ago, Stelmer said:

I'm keeping an eye on things closely, given I drive for a living.  Hopefully signs are evident of how bad it'll be on Thursday morning. There's a risk for workers to be stuck as alot don't believe or know it could be potentially bad.

There’s been a lot of false promise this winter - lots of talk of snow but no snow actually materialising in this part of the world - so a lot of people will absolutely be disregarding this potential snow event. Can’t really blame them either. 
 

It’s going to take snow to actually be settling on the ground for people around here to believe it.

Edited March 7, 2023 by cheese

[Empire Of Snow]

3 minutes ago, Cold Winter said:

Hope I’m wrong too and get a foot of snow but quite unlikely 

There's a significant probability you'll get around 30cm. 

[cheese]

On another note - it’s currently lightly snowing here 

[winterof79]

53 minutes ago, terrier said:

Wise words indeed. I think a few will be left disappointed with this upcoming spell. As you say if very marginal for many low lying areas. Even up here in Huddersfield I think we are probably looking at a few slushy deposits. My guess would be 3-5cm up on the higher parts of the region and mainly a slushy covering for most other low lying areas. Certainly can’t see much in the way of heavy falls of snow widely. 

Shall we re visit this statement another day as you seem continually to fly in the face of output and the Met.Where are your charts to show a slushy covering for most.

Any reason for this ?

[Empire Of Snow]

2 minutes ago, cheese said:

There’s been a lot of false promise this winter - lots of talk of snow but no snow actually materialising in this part of the world - so a lot of people will absolutely be disregarding this potential snow event. Can’t really blame them either. 
 

It’s going to take snow to actually be settling on the ground for people around here to believe it.

The big difference is that this snow event is coming from an organised system. It's not like you're radar watching and waiting for snow showers to appear from the North Sea. If it verifies we're talking about 12h of snow and a pivot which might give another 2-4h if temps allow.