Yorkshire and E England regional discussion

[Wold Topper]

1 minute ago, mike57 said:

A much nicer day at lunchtime, sunny with temperatures of 14c and a Force 2 SE wind. A nice fresh feel. Quite a cool start this morning, with a touch of frost on the car windscreen, however air temp was around 5c

Same out my way this morning, light frost on windscreen, car was reading 3°c on top road nr Rudston, lovely sunny fresh morning tho..

[mike57]

WNW force 4-6 at lunchtime, and 12c, with well broken cloud and sunshine. I only rode 7.5 miles today as I had to get back, but a pleasant autumn day here. Quite cool this morning, 5c at 7am.

My sort of weather

[sorepaw1]

Just been out in my car 7.oC at 7pm

Sledmere to Malton was a lovely drive today on the B1253. 

My Winter tyres are getting fitted in 4 weeks. For those who know the roads around North Yorkshire and Northern parts of East Yorkshire. 

In winter. 

Edited October 15, 2023 by sorepaw1
Spelling

[A Face like Thunder]

Heading up to North Yorkshire tomorrow for one of our final visits of the year and it looks as though Storm Babet may affect us Thursday and/or Friday, with a yellow weather warning for heavy rain already issued for those two days. It seems that we should have no weather problems getting to NY tomorrow but going home on Friday may be much more problematic! 

[Beverley Lass]

Going to be rather soggy thanks to Storm Babet over the next few days.
Here's a rainfall total accumulation forecast from the BBC forecast this morning.

 

[A Face like Thunder]

Today has been a nice day in NY although the wind has picked up this evening. Tomorrow looks dry during daylight hours, although increasingly windy, but after that..... 

[mike57]

Just wondering what the storm impacts will be, forecast on here is showing wet, but more worryingly 69mph gusts from an easterly gale Friday afternoon. This would potentially be damaging on the east coast. Particularly with the trees still in almost full leaf.

Met Office is making more of the rain, but max gust ~50mph which is a normal storm and not cause for concern.

[Beverley Lass]

Seems just a wind warning for the English East coast, Friday and Saturday.
Not for rainfall ?

[mike57]

2 hours ago, mike57 said:

Met Office is making more of the rain

Met Office yellow warning for rain now gone from our area, but East Coast of Scotland now Red for rain and Amber for wind. and now Yellow wind warning over our area, so a very fluid picture. Looks like wind will be the main issue here

[Beverley Lass]

Ahh, the warnings updated again.
Yellow for Rain now included.

[mike57]

Well lunchtime bike ride was a slog, SE force 6-7, a steady blow too, not particularly gusty, which was a head wind for 3 miles. Sunny, and not cold, but when you are slower down the hills into the wind than up with the wind behind you know thats at least force 6.

Pictures taken by Mrs Mike57 at 7.30 am this morning, waves were building up at Bridkington harbour,

Edited October 18, 2023 by mike57

[A Face like Thunder]

Not actually a bad day on the NY moors although any warmth was reduced by the wind and confined to areas in the sun. Still dry now but it looks as though the main rain band will move through overnight, leaving the possibility of a dry-ish day in the Region tomorrow which I will welcome for one. However there are still yellow weather warnings in place for rain and wind until Saturday, so clearly we will not be done with Babet any time soon. 

[Scott Ingham]

Well the famous Sheffield and Rotherham floods of 2007 had us with a record breaking 123.5mm of rain over a 3 day period (admittedly the ground was a little bit more saturated than it is now so could be a saving grace) but if we take again the arpege and ecmwf dustribution of rain between Friday AM and Saturday AM on top of tonights and tomorroww patchier rain then we wont be far off these totals if not more. Currently Sheffield and Rotherham is forecast between 100mm and 150mm of rain! All eyes on gfs to see if it follows suit or sticks to its more southern option. Arpege attached. Wow! Never seen this forecast for South Yorkshire before! 

 

Pray for the GFS outcome! No one likes flooding!

[Wold Topper]

Rain has arrived in the last hour and the wind has gone up a notch, nothing overly concerning at the mo, see what the morning brings

[RebsAbbo]

It’s looking like tomorrow will be the worse of it but there was enough rain last night to call off potato lifting today….no-one wants a soggy potato! 

[cowdog]

30 minutes ago, RebsAbbo said:

It’s looking like tomorrow will be the worse of it but there was enough rain last night to call off potato lifting today….no-one wants a soggy potato! 

Looking at the predicted rainfall totals until Friday night, the Met really needs to move the warning area to cover the whole of the North and an Amber over the Pennines. It's not as bad as Eastern Scotland, but still a damaging amount of rain, given the ground is already completely sodden.

[adrianh]

Ground is completely saturated after last nights rain - I suspect the rivers will react quickly to tomorrows persistent heavy rain

[cowdog]

As I predicted - Amber now issued for Pennines. Note some models have totals higher than the Met say, so be aware.

Quote

Following on from wet weather on Thursday, a further spell of persistent and at times heavy rain will affect parts of southeast Scotland and northern England during Friday, lasting into early Saturday. Widely 40-60 mm of rain is likely to fall, but the east-facing high ground from southeast Scotland to the Cheviots, south to the Peak District may see between 80 and 120 mm of rain locally. Strong easterly winds may exacerbate the impacts of the heavy rain.

UK weather warnings

WWW.METOFFICE.GOV.UK

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Met Office UK weather warnings for rain, snow, wind, fog and ice. Choose your location to keep up to date with local weather warnings.

 

[Love Snow]

Shame it’s not snow stay safe all in flood prone areas! 

 

 

[Gray-Wolf]

From being borderline 'Yellow', here in the upper Calder Valley, we are solid 'Amber' for Friday/Saturday!

There isn't a Day I'm not grateful to the 'European Regional Development Fund' for their 'dibbing in' on the costs of our Flood Defences!!

If we see a flood event that overtops them then the whole Valley bottom, buildings/roads/bridges, will be lost!

Sadly all our defences do is ship the problem downstream where they have not had works done &, under this regime & minus Europe, will not

There is some sense of Karma in that it is our tory MP, who lives in the 1st place that will see such 'inherited Flooding' (Brighouse?), after He twice voted against funding our works.....

Stay safe Folks.....DO NOT enter flood waters!!!

Edited October 19, 2023 by Gray-Wolf

[cowdog]

1 hour ago, Gray-Wolf said:

From being borderline 'Yellow', here in the upper Calder Valley, we are solid 'Amber' for Friday/Saturday!

There isn't a Day I'm not grateful to the 'European Regional Development Fund' for their 'dibbing in' on the costs of our Flood Defences!!

If we see a flood event that overtops them then the whole Valley bottom, buildings/roads/bridges, will be lost!

Sadly all our defences do is ship the problem downstream where they have not had works done &, under this regime & minus Europe, will not

There is some sense of Karma in that it is our tory MP, who lives in the 1st place that will see such 'inherited Flooding' (Brighouse?), after He twice voted against funding our works.....

Stay safe Folks.....DO NOT enter flood waters!!!

They are currently predicting 3m at Sowerby Bridge, 2.5m at Todmorden. Just below the records for both of them.

River Calder level at Sowerby Bridge - GOV.UK

CHECK-FOR-FLOODING.SERVICE.GOV.UK

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Check the latest recorded river level and recent 5-day trend at Sowerby Bridge

 

[cowdog]

Hate to double post but, Hebden Bridge is being predicted to smash its previous record by over half a meter. If this is backed up by further runs, then they need to issue a red warning tonight.

River Calder level at Hebden Bridge - GOV.UK

CHECK-FOR-FLOODING.SERVICE.GOV.UK

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Check the latest recorded river level and recent 5-day trend at Hebden Bridge

 

[Schnee]

How do you find the predictions for water levels?

[cowdog]

23 minutes ago, Schnee said:

How do you find the predictions for water levels?

Some of the significant river gauges that the Environment agency operates are connected to their own model to predict the measurements. Believe it just uses the UKV for predicted rainfall, so it's very dependent on what that is showing to predict the expected amounts at those stations.

 

Think it's only a handful of stations on the Calder and the Don in our region have the functionality.

 

That is 2m above the previous record. Got to hope now the model is throwing a wobbly.

 

Edited October 19, 2023 by cowdog

[Mark Bayley]

Seems a bit extreme. Though June 2007 was 100mm in 24 hours?  Models don't rule that possibility out for tomorrow (though heaviest rain much more focused on east facing slopes). Will also depend on how saturated the ground is. We've not seen any exceptional rain in the last several weeks. Either way definitely some flooding risk in the next 48 hours!