North West Regional Discussion 30 December 2020 onwards

[cowdog]

This not forecast rain that has fallen this morning is the last thing we needed given what's coming tomorrow. Rivers are going to be very high even before the deluge hits.

[Chris.R]

Only trace rain today thankfully expecting about 50 mm from next few days, don’t tend to get it so bad down here on the coastal plane.

[Chris.R]

Wow massive upgrade on 06Z WRF for Merseyside. Shows heavy snow all Wednesday evening. Looks like   gone further south, looks epic.

Edited January 18, 2021 by Chris.R

[Thunder Snow]

Hopefully the rain totals are not as bad they are making out, but looks like parts of carlisle new flood defences might get tested over the coming days 

[frosty ground]

17 minutes ago, Chris.R said:

Wow massive upgrade on 06Z WRF for Merseyside. Shows heavy snow all Wednesday evening. Looks like   gone further south, looks epic.

Do you have a link for that model? 

[Had Worse]

12 minutes ago, Chris.R said:

Wow massive upgrade on 06Z WRF for Merseyside. Shows heavy snow all Wednesday evening. Looks like   gone further south, looks epic.

Can you give an idea for Hadfield / Glossop Wed night and Thur. The reason I ask is that my son works over in Oldham and has to get 2 buses back home. 

[The Northern Ramper]

1 hour ago, Chris.R said:

On the other hand i’d say it’s looking pretty good for us.

What do you reckon the chances for the region are?

[Chris.R]

5 minutes ago, Had Worse said:

Can you give an idea for Hadfield / Glossop Wed night and Thur. The reason I ask is that my son works over in Oldham and has to get 2 buses back home. 

Sure give me a minute.

[The Northern Ramper]

1 hour ago, frosty ground said:

Northern England and Scotland do not belong in the Mod thread.

There’s a massive southern bias which if you judge the models just by the mood of the thread gives a distorted view of the output.

[Chris.R]

14 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

Do you have a link for that model? 

 

Not to the charts though I’m sure it’s easy to find.

I prefer using data tables so I use the forecast facility on Meteociel. 

Meteociel - Prévisions météo fines WRF heure par heure neige pour Widnes ( Grande-Bretagne )

WWW.METEOCIEL.FR

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Prévisions météo gratuites et précises à 3 jours heure par heure pour Widnes ( Grande-Bretagne ) basées sur le modèle WRF. Graphiques horaires de températures et pluie.

 

Edited January 18, 2021 by Chris.R

[cowdog]

Massive change to the warnings issued - the Amber now covers half of England and is only 50 miles away from London. Other warnings going to be issued as well for North, but fair to say a Red is likely for the Pennines given river levels.

[Chris.R]

4 minutes ago, Ramp said:

What do you reckon the chances for the region are?

Pretty good. I reckon everyone will see falling snow at some point. Even the Wirral should be right-side of marginal at times.

Wednesday evening has the potential to be very good if things play out right.

After that of course snow accumulation will depend on altitude and distance from the coast as usual but think we have a better chance than previously given the time of year below average SST’s and low DP’s and geo-potential heights.

[Had Worse]

2 minutes ago, cowdog said:

Massive change to the warnings issued - the Amber now covers half of England and is only 50 miles away from London. Other warnings going to be issued as well for North, but fair to say a Red is likely for the Pennines given river levels.

I think the warnings are work in progress as i type.  Some of the yellow areas arent responding at the moment

[Frost HoIIow]

In terms of rain I reckon we might escape the worst of it here given the wind looks like coming in from the SW, as the Welsh mountains gives us some protection. Often in these situations north of Rochdale gets the worst of it. Most of the models and app forecasts never seem to factor this in. 

[frosty ground]

9 minutes ago, Chris.R said:

Not to the charts though I’m sure it’s easy to find.

Not to the charts though I’m sure it’s easy to find.

I prefer using data tables so I use the forecast facility on Meteociel. 

Meteociel - Prévisions météo fines WRF heure par heure neige pour Widnes ( Grande-Bretagne )

WWW.METEOCIEL.FR

---

Prévisions météo gratuites et précises à 3 jours heure par heure pour Widnes ( Grande-Bretagne ) basées sur le modèle WRF. Graphiques horaires de températures et pluie.

 

Thanks buddy, there are lots of WRF models thou 

[frosty ground]

6 minutes ago, Had Worse said:

I think the warnings are work in progress as i type.  Some of the yellow areas arent responding at the moment

Amber warning now Includes 150-200mm which was removed yesterday.

[Had Worse]

7 minutes ago, Chris.R said:

Pretty good. I reckon everyone will see falling snow at some point. Even the Wirral should be right-side of marginal at times.

Wednesday evening has the potential to be very good if things play out right.

After that of course snow accumulation will depend on altitude and distance from the coast as usual but think we have a better chance than previously given the time of year below average SST’s and low DP’s and geo-potential heights.

Storm Christoph just been named. Your honoured mate... maybe not in some parts though.

[Chris.R]

18 minutes ago, Had Worse said:

Can you give an idea for Hadfield / Glossop Wed night and Thur. The reason I ask is that my son works over in Oldham and has to get 2 buses back home. 

Currently shows heavy rain turning to heavy snow after 8 pm.

Temp drops from 7 to 0 in 3 hours between 19:00–22:00. Expect significant accumulations.

Of course it is only one run though and could change again either way.

[A Face like Thunder]

So Storm Christoph rather than Abbey-stead, but at least it's now been named. Take a bow Chris R, you've just had a storm named after you!

[Had Worse]

1 minute ago, A Face like Thunder said:

So Storm Christoph rather than Abbey-stead, but at least it's now been named. Take a bow Chris R, you've just had a storm named after you!

Bow wave would be closer to the truth.

[Chris.R]

12 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

Thanks buddy, there are lots of WRF models thou 

 

Think it’s the WRF NMM 2 km.

Believe I read somewhere that Netweather uses that for their short range in-house model also.

Edited January 18, 2021 by Chris.R

[Chris.R]

2 minutes ago, A Face like Thunder said:

So Storm Christoph rather than Abbey-stead, but at least it's now been named. Take a bow Chris R, you've just had a storm named after you!

Yep i’ve been on here 10 years and has never happened before. As long as it doesn’t become infamous.

[Iceaxecrampon]

23 minutes ago, Had Worse said:

Can you give an idea for Hadfield / Glossop Wed night and Thur. The reason I ask is that my son works over in Oldham and has to get 2 buses back home. 

I'd be wary about venturing out especially Glossop - stay safe.

[Had Worse]

Just now, Iceaxecrampon said:

I'd be wary about venturing out especially Glossop - stay safe.

Its on my wish list. My wife needs it more than me, might cause some damage to any roads where the vehicles are double parked.

[I Cumbria Marra I]

Anyone else having trouble viewing the met office warnings? Trying to see if theres any warnings for snow on Thursday.