North West Regional Discussion 30 December 2020 onwards

[robbo88]

Met office video shows some back edge snow on Wednesday night, like @Chris.Rmentions...

 

[Had Worse]

Just now, I Cumbria Marra I said:

Anyone else having trouble viewing the met office warnings? Trying to see if theres any warnings for snow on Thursday.

Yes, I think they are re arranging and haven't finished yet.

[cowdog]

1 minute ago, I Cumbria Marra I said:

Anyone else having trouble viewing the met office warnings? Trying to see if theres any warnings for snow on Thursday.

Thursday's page is corrupted, wait till they fix it.

[Chris.R]

Try this for the warnings.

UK weather warnings

WWW.METOFFICE.GOV.UK

 

[Chris.R]

So warning for snow currently only for parts of Scotland but I expect it to be expanded southwards if current trends continue.

[Snow free zone]

Sadly I don't think its snowfall that will be making the news. Warnings now saying potentially 200mm of rainfall in parts. Coupled with melting of any laying snow its really looking a bit nasty as far as potential flooding goes. 

[Had Worse]

37 minutes ago, Chris.R said:

Try this for the warnings.

UK weather warnings

WWW.METOFFICE.GOV.UK

 

The detail works but if you click 'Back to warning Maps' it falls over.

[Thunder Snow]

Anyone know how much will fall over the Eden Valley and Carlisle area?

[Slidergate '17]

Just watched Chris F on the BBC forecast, he looks genuinely concerned when describing the rain totals!! Surely a Red warning not far off?

[The Northern Ramper]

1 hour ago, Frost HoIIow said:

In terms of rain I reckon we might escape the worst of it here given the wind looks like coming in from the SW, as the Welsh mountains gives us some protection. Often in these situations north of Rochdale gets the worst of it. Most of the models and app forecasts never seem to factor this in. 

I think Calderdale down through Littleborough and Rochdale will be particularly at risk in the prone to flooding places. 

[cheshire snow]

1 hour ago, Chris.R said:

So warning for snow currently only for parts of Scotland but I expect it to be expanded southwards if current trends continue.

Latest fax chart would agree with you.

C.S

[mountain shadow]

57 minutes ago, Slidergate '17 said:

Just watched Chris F on the BBC forecast, he looks genuinely concerned when describing the rain totals!! Surely a Red warning not far off?

Looks bad for you guys. 200mm with snow melt on top of that. 

[Had Worse]

Just found the BFTE on my phone. Nothing wet then.

[Frost HoIIow]

2 hours ago, Iceaxecrampon said:

I'd be wary about venturing out especially Glossop - stay safe.

That vehicle reminds me of the snowcat in the Shining haha.

[SnowWatcher2]

 <<ECM (Now - Thurs 00:00)

<< GFS (Now- Thurs 00:00)

<< AROME (now- Tue 17:00)

I'm surprised North Wales isn't in the Amber warning area.. unless it gets updated later.

[damianslaw]

As expected subtle shifts south in the position of the frontal feature, means heaviest rain may well be focused Peak District, N Wales. Colder air digging in further south as well, we may see some temporary snow before it clears on Thursday morning

 Note the snow warning S Scotland on Tuesday indicative of the colder air digging in here. 

 

Notwithstanding the immediate outlook is very unappealing.

Edited January 18, 2021 by damianslaw

[frosty ground]

Correction southeast wards 

[frosty ground]

Closer view (Slightly later)

[Geordiesnow]

Well the UKMO has the low quite a bit further north, honestly the snow risk is really secondary and low risk for our region, its the rain we need to watch out for. Might not rain all the time but it will likely to be heavy and persistent. 

I think it's fair to say the Atlantic is back and the SSW will not deliver anything too cold for the UK. 

 

[raul_sbd]

7 minutes ago, Geordiesnow said:

Well the UKMO has the low quite a bit further north, honestly the snow risk is really secondary and low risk for our region, its the rain we need to watch out for. Might not rain all the time but it will likely to be heavy and persistent. 

I think it's fair to say the Atlantic is back and the SSW will not deliver anything too cold for the UK. 

 

Misleading to say... on MOD they are saying following GFS 12z firming up on snowy conditions from late Wed going forwards.. confused?!

Edited January 18, 2021 by raul_sbd

[SnowWatcher2]

I am also optimistic for snow - at least during the early hours of Thursday morning , current update favoring quite a bit for this area , although it could be a fine line Thursday during day.

 < Wed 21:00 -00:00

< Thurs 

[Chris.R]

The way I see it is like this:

If you’re on high ground above 150 m get excited now because you’re going to get battered.
If you live below 150 m but East of M6 get excited now because you’re going to get slightly battered Thursday – Friday then heavily battered.

if you live West of M6 get cautiously excited because you could get battered Wednesday night then it’s boring until Friday night then could get slightly battered.

if you live in the south, go and throw toys in the mad thread.

Edited January 18, 2021 by Chris.R

[ItIsGee]

1 minute ago, Chris.R said:

Do I say it’s like this. If you’re on high ground above 150 m get excited now because you’re going to get battered. If you live below this but East of M6 get excited now because you’re going to get slightly battered Thursday – Friday then heavily battered.

West of M6 could get battered Wednesday night then it’s boring until Friday night then could get slightly battered.

if you live in the south, go and throw toys in the mad thread.

i love your forecasting techniques!

[Iceaxecrampon]

24 minutes ago, Geordiesnow said:

Well the UKMO has the low quite a bit further north, honestly the snow risk is really secondary and low risk for our region, its the rain we need to watch out for. Might not rain all the time but it will likely to be heavy and persistent. 

I think it's fair to say the Atlantic is back and the SSW will not deliver anything too cold for the UK. 

 

12z doesn't agree...! - decent upgrade - shortlived after and a bit messy until a potential reload on Sunday but that's at +135

Sunday>>>>>

Yes the Atlantic is well and truly in default mode in the short term at least.

 

Edited January 18, 2021 by Iceaxecrampon

[frosty ground]

That ensemble P07 drops just under a meter of snow 

Edited January 18, 2021 by frosty ground