North West Regional Discussion 30 December 2020 onwards

[trickydicky]

7 minutes ago, Dexter said:

The one thing I have noticed over the past 2 or 3 days is that the wintry prospects for Thursday have been slowly watered down in the metoffice text forecast for the region. It now just says showers for Thursday with no mention of sleet or snow. 

It’s going to be one of those events that have become pretty common in the north west over recent years, sleet and non settling wet snow to ground below 200m, at absolute best 150. All the usual places like Alston, Shap and the higher parts of the Yorkshire Dales we’ll get a tonking I’d say. Anything that comes with any kind of westerly is too marginal. 

[severe snowstorm]

2 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

This is also represented in the App forecast with temps a degree or two higher than originally forecast, 

I assume the app just goes off their own raw model output? The text forecast has human intervention, so I'm assuming that the models have backed away generally from risk of snow, on lower ground at least.

[Had Worse]

2 minutes ago, trickydicky said:

It’s going to be one of those events that have become pretty common in the north west over recent years, sleet and non settling wet snow to ground below 200m, at absolute best 150. All the usual places like Alston, Shap and the higher parts of the Yorkshire Dales we’ll get a tonking I’d say. Anything that comes with any kind of westerly is too marginal. 

 

[Chris.R]

Let’s be clear Thursday and early Friday falling snow only east of M6 above 150 m. Settling snow above 200 m. Real fun starts Friday night.
This has always been the case I haven’t seen any downgrades cold air only really comes in Friday and has been showing this all along. The only difference is Wednesday night has upgraded significantly from a few days ago.

Met app always shows watered-down conditions a few days out watch it get more interesting as we get within 24 hours.

Edited January 19, 2021 by Chris.R

[Had Worse]

Just now, Chris.R said:

Let’s be clear Thursday and early Friday falling snow only east of M6 above 150 m. Settling snow above 200 m. Real fun starts Friday night.

Morning Chris, looks like a 10 minute walk to Bankswood park and i'll get the 200m. That would mean that half the sledging slope would be usable.

[Mark_p]

Driving conditions have already deteriorated with a lot of surface water about. I hope there isn't too much property damage from flooding over the next few days as its looking grim. 

[Chris.R]

See my edited post for elaboration

[Had Worse]

Reporters are out at Hebden Bridge waiting for the flooding to repeat its self again.

[severe snowstorm]

3 minutes ago, Chris.R said:

Let’s be clear Thursday and early Friday falling snow only east of M6 above 150 m. Settling snow above 200 m. Real fun starts Friday night.

Metoffice app is showing wind direction predominantly W or WSW from Thursday through to Saturday. I assume this is not good for Southern parts of the region in a showery regime unless we are expecting troughs?

[Joe Bloggs]

8 minutes ago, trickydicky said:

It’s going to be one of those events that have become pretty common in the north west over recent years, sleet and non settling wet snow to ground below 200m, at absolute best 150. All the usual places like Alston, Shap and the higher parts of the Yorkshire Dales we’ll get a tonking I’d say. Anything that comes with any kind of westerly is too marginal. 

That just isn’t true - we saw what happened in between Christmas and new year when we had a cold west/NW’ly flow and it gave far more snow to low levels than anyone predicted. 
 

Of course the westerly has to be cold enough, but when it is, it can and does often bring snow. 

Most snow events in Manchester are from a cold westerly. Jan 2019, Jan 2015, December 2004, I could go on. 
 

In fact for Manchester at least, if it wasn’t for the occasional cold westerly, the city would get barely any snow at all. 

[dodge]

No expectations of snow in my mind at the moment, great expectations of some flakes of sleet falling into the huge lakes and puddles that will be flooding our roads & fields in the next 2 days. 

[Had Worse]

2 minutes ago, Dexter said:

Metoffice app is showing wind direction predominantly W or WSW from Thursday through to Saturday. I assume this is not good for Southern parts of the region in a showery regime unless we are expecting troughs?

Would ty in with this post.

 

[Joe Bloggs]

2 hours ago, northwestsnow said:

Meto/BBC text updates are a bust for us.

Wintry showers for high ground ...

Let's see if we can eek out some last minute upgrades...

I’m not 100% certain we’ll see snow, far from it, but I’m surprised we place any emphasis on these text forecasts, or TV broadcasts in general to be honest.

As we saw late last month, they are absolutely useless, and I include most of the apps in that bracket too.  

[Chris.R]

17 minutes ago, Dexter said:

Metoffice app is showing wind direction predominantly W or WSW from Thursday through to Saturday. I assume this is not good for Southern parts of the region in a showery regime unless we are expecting troughs?

It’s important to remember that the wind direction you see  on apps is the surface wind and for the direction of showers  you want to be looking for the winds at 850–700 mb.
They look to be more of a WNW through the period so I expect there will be a lot of precipitation even for the south of the region. It’s quite a strong flow as well so showers will be fast moving.

Also showers may intensify over first land as they often do in a strong flow and be quite weak near the immediate coast.

Edited January 19, 2021 by Chris.R

[severe snowstorm]

4 minutes ago, Had Worse said:

Would ty in with this post.

 

Cheers. Very useful post. Saves me having to wade through the reams of rubbish! I haven't ventured into the mod thread for a while, been relying on the knowledgeable folk on this thread instead.

[cheshire snow]

Cold unstable NW flow for Friday also indicated by the fax charts expect snow showers and troughs as suggested by matt on BBC breakfast not to much detail at this stage as the main focus and quite rightly is on the next 36hrs of heavy rain chart shows 850hpa of around -7 so plenty to keep us on our toes in the days to come.

C.S

[trickydicky]

12 minutes ago, Joe Bloggs said:

That just isn’t true - we saw what happened in between Christmas and new year when we had a cold west/NW’ly flow and it gave far more snow to low levels than anyone predicted. 
 

Of course the westerly has to be cold enough, but when it is, it can and does often bring snow. 

Most snow events in Manchester are from a cold westerly. Jan 2019, Jan 2015, December 2004, I could go on. 
 

In fact for Manchester at least, if it wasn’t for the occasional cold westerly, the city would get barely any snow at all. 

I can’t really comment for Manchester as I don’t live there, but I’ll take your word on it. 

[Had Worse]

1 minute ago, Dexter said:

Cheers. Very useful post. Saves me having to wade through the reams of rubbish! I haven't ventured into the mod thread for a while, been relying on the knowledgeable folk on this thread instead.

There are a lot of decent posters on the MOD thread , @carinthian gives a very balanced view and has  access to fine mesh models.

[Chris.R]

BTW sorry about the frequent typos and things I’m not the best and I use dictation often

[Joe Bloggs]

1 minute ago, trickydicky said:

I can’t really comment for Manchester as I don’t live there, but I’ll take your word on it. 

Just noticed your location, oops.  

Yeah fair enough. I agree with your general point though - westerlies are only snow laden if they are cold enough ! 

[Had Worse]

2 minutes ago, Chris.R said:

BTW sorry about the frequent typos and things I’m not the best and I use dictation often

Is that where you speak into the MIC and it interprets the words on screen.

I can imagine you swearing under your breath then having to delete it lol.

[Chris.R]

Just now, Had Worse said:

Is that where you speak into the MIC and it interprets the words on screen.

I can imagine you swearing under your breath then having to delete it lol.

 

Just now, Had Worse said:

Is that where you speak into the MIC and it interprets the words on screen.

I can imagine you swearing under your breath then having to delete it lol.

Yeah exactly, it’s built into iOS and Mac. Haha yep happens quite often.

[Dan B]

8ºC here and hammering it down. Least it's not blowing a hoolie...

 

Can see snow and cold forecast from Thursday onwards; but can't see it ever settling with it being so sodden out there 

[A Face like Thunder]

What is this I see in the sky? Not rain, not snow, but sun! Overnight rain here in S Cheshire but now dry and a bit of sun amidst the clouds. I suspect we have the Welsh mountains to thank for this. Sods law I shall go out for a walk and get wet!

[Iceaxecrampon]

49 minutes ago, Had Worse said:

Reporters are out at Hebden Bridge waiting for the flooding to repeat its self again.

Hopefully prepared - but how much can you?