North West Regional Discussion 30 December 2020 onwards

[severe snowstorm]

1 minute ago, Day 10 said:

Maybe a couple of hours back edge heavy wet snow Wed eve.

 

Euro 4 agrees...

Good to see you back posting btw. Hope you're feeling better.

 

Edited January 19, 2021 by Dexter

[damianslaw]

A woeful wet January bleak mid winter type day, never been light and a swift descent into darkness.

We've been spared many such days so far this season, especially in the 3 weeks since Boxing Day.

Alas was always a matter of time..

Incessant rain for at least another 24 hrs probably 36 before turning wintry.

I note the warnings were not updated today, surprised..  we should be under the amber for rain I feel.

Also good possibility we may be included in the current snow warning S Scotland for tomorrow into Thursday, though will not be updated until late morning I expect.

[Day 10]

A couple of snapshots for Thurs, no point going much further at this stage

The usual caveats of further inland/upland the better, coastal MAY fare better Fri/Sat as the colder air digs in.

[Badgers01]

5 hours ago, Chris.R said:

More or less. I reckon snow settling at night but not in the day. should have snow cover constantly from Friday afternoon.

BTW Wednesday night is Delayed a few hours from what I said yesterday starting about 9 pm now.

Where are you predicting constant snow cover for from Friday afternoon may I ask ? 

[Iceaxecrampon]

11 minutes ago, Day 10 said:

A couple of snapshots for Thurs, no point going much further at this stage

The usual caveats of further inland/upland the better, coastal MAY fare better Fri/Sat as the colder air digs in.

Encouraging though.

Hello D10 

Big upgrade for Sunday according to12z GFS

Edited January 19, 2021 by Iceaxecrampon

[Iceaxecrampon]

2 minutes ago, Badgers01 said:

Where are you predicting constant snow cover for from Friday afternoon may I ask ? 

London?

Something for everyone says the GFS 12z 

 

[Badgers01]

2 minutes ago, Iceaxecrampon said:

London?

Something for everyone says the GFS 12z 

 

Personally not thinking so ! 

[Badgers01]

GFS precipitation charts at that range are not known for being accurate 

[dodge]

It's not been raining continuously here today, in fact there was a gap of about 4hrs where it didn't, but the radar shows pulses feeding in from the south west so there is all of tonight and tomorrow to get through yet.  Although at this early stage, maybe affecting more northern parts that at my local level?

Snow?  Maybe a few scraps that Southern Scotland throws down at us, but they'll be in the firing line tomorrow/thurs.

Edited January 19, 2021 by dodge

[Iceaxecrampon]

2 minutes ago, Badgers01 said:

GFS precipitation charts at that range are not known for being accurate 

Your probably correct.

Which one do you prefer?

[Chris.R]

14 minutes ago, Badgers01 said:

Where are you predicting constant snow cover for from Friday afternoon may I ask ? 

I was responding to a question referring to Glossop and areas around. Same applies for all locations over 150 m in the region except near coasts where more like 200 initially.

Edited January 19, 2021 by Chris.R

[Badgers01]

Just now, Chris.R said:

I was responding to a question referring to Glossop and areas around. Same applies for all locations of 150 m in the region except near coasts where more like 200 initially.

Fair enough ! Seems optimistic but who really knows ?

[Chris.R]

2 minutes ago, Badgers01 said:

Fair enough ! Seems optimistic but who really knows ?

Just giving my best guess opinion based on parameters as an enthusiastic amateur.

Edited January 19, 2021 by Chris.R

[Badgers01]

Just now, Chris.R said:

Just giving my best guess opinion based on parameters as a enthusiastic amateur.

Absolutely! 

[SnowWatcher2]

Recently updated 10 day forecast looking decent - not looking forward to tomorrows rain totals though, even worse than today.

< Also looks like the bulk of it will be passing between 21:00Wed- 00:00Thurs. Could go either way, I'm keeping optimistic though as we should still have plenty of chances over the next few days to see some snow. 

[iand61]

Wet at times here today but never overly heavy and dry periods this afternoon so on balance todays Amber warning was probably not justified this far south.

maybe the Meto are looking at things going downhill for us overnight and during tomorrow but given the location of the warning area and the more northerly track that the system took I think they got it wrong by something in excess of 50 miles.

that said Granada are still talking of torrential rain and severe flooding for the region so maybe it’s literally the calm before the storm for more southern parts.

[chicken soup]

Can't see were this snow excitement for the weekend is coming from.. Met office has me down as dry Fri sat sun so do tv forecasts. 

[pip22]

According to Heart FM there is a major incident have been declared across Greater Manchester involving Storm Christoph.

Edited January 19, 2021 by pip22

[Miamay]

Heavy rain it’s been a miserable day

[Weather-history]

5 minutes ago, iand61 said:

Wet at times here today but never overly heavy and dry periods this afternoon so on balance todays Amber warning was probably not justified this far south.

maybe the Meto are looking at things going downhill for us overnight and during tomorrow but given the location of the warning area and the more northerly track that the system took I think they got it wrong by something in excess of 50 miles.

that said Granada are still talking of torrential rain and severe flooding for the region so maybe it’s literally the calm before the storm for more southern parts.

The rainfall totals on GFS and ECM don't look that wet compared to what they were showing, but that is rain falling on very wet ground 

GFS 12 from midday Tuesday until Thursday 12pm, that's over a 48 hr period

 

ECM 12z 

 

[Dan B]

The rains stopped here again

 

It's not been that heavy at all; more constant than heavy

 

However; it's weirdly warm out there

[SnowWatcher2]

13 minutes ago, chicken soup said:

Can't see were this snow excitement for the weekend is coming from.. Met office has me down as dry Fri sat sun so do tv forecasts. 

Met Office updates in my experience have always been last to update to show snow potential... this is my current outlook for Thursday.. but expecting it to change , hopefully to more snowy conditions. could be wrong though and it all backfire 

[WillinGlossop]

26 minutes ago, SnowWatcher2 said:

Recently updated 10 day forecast looking decent - not looking forward to tomorrows rain totals though, even worse than today.

< Also looks like the bulk of it will be passing between 21:00Wed- 00:00Thurs. Could go either way, I'm keeping optimistic though as we should still have plenty of chances over the next few days to see some snow. 

Netweather forecast for my postcode going for 45cm... from tomorrow night through to Tuesday...I’ll take that with pinch of salt for now...

mos high resolution models should pick up on bands of showers/streamers over coming days 

Edited January 19, 2021 by WillinGlossop

[Frost HoIIow]

It's not been relentless today as the Welsh mountains have blocked some of the onslaught but the next belt has made it over the Himalayas this time. Still tonight and tomorrow to get through.

 

[iand61]

The rain coming in across North Wales seems to be taking a more southerly track so southern parts of Lancashire and Greater Manchester look to be in the firing line during the next couple of hours.