Far north and northeast of England weather discussion

[Polarwesterly]

14 minutes ago, NickR said:

Again, does that not indicate the serious snow further S?

Just thinking of the deeper cold pooling in with that north-east flow. On the 850’s chart you can see them flooding south once them heights develop 

[Phil Blake]

I wouldn't worry about precipitation yet. The models won't pick up the serious convection yet if we happen to get the sub -12 uppers moving over the North sea towards us

[Mick Ormiston]

3 hours ago, Bridgehill Blizzard said:

Sleety showers over Consett. Temp gone from 6.0c to 3.0c

Falling as snow now in the centre.

[Rollo]

1 hour ago, Mick Ormiston said:

Falling as snow now in the centre.

The showers such as they are appear to be generally light but you should get some small accumulation , her sleet is more likely.

[Cloud 10]

Got a snow shower here now.

[Mick Ormiston]

57 minutes ago, Rollo said:

The showers such as they are appear to be generally light but you should get some small accumulation , her sleet is more likely.

The showers are quite heavy about seven. Already a covering on the ground.

[Rollo]

Hi Mike, they are certainly getting more frequent here, and turning more to sleet, temperature is around 1c,

[Continental Climate]

A bit of sleet falling as I drove into darlington this morning. Wasn't expecting it to be honest. 

[Phil Blake]

Seeing a few flakes this morning. Tuesday also looking good for the north east at the minute. Won't go further than that as the models have backed away slightly from full on beast for now 

[Polarwesterly]

Looks like the coldest Jan since 2010. Jan 2013 is attached to compare, mean temperatures on the left. 2013 top, 2021, bottom

Edited January 30, 2021 by Polarwesterly

[Gizzy]

Bit of snizzle this morning, slightest of dusting from what must of been some bigger flakes in the earlier hours.

Not overly knowledgeable with the models but I do know they have been all over the place this last month, promising something, taking it away then bringing it back and often bringing it back intensified etc.

Just a gut feeling ,based on no knowledge, but I think this will happen with the forecast beast, I think it will keep appearing then being taken away / reduced on each of the different model runs over the coming days and then by midweek we will see it come within range and even intensify in what it may bring. May be wishful thinking, time will tell.

[Snowmaggedon]

Looks like the Easterly is back on the menu this morning after yesterday’s wobble?

[NickR]

:::sigh::: So a load of daytime snow further south again, and the prospects for something decent for us from the E/NE next week receding,

[NickR]

And the E'ly that might happen still seems to me to vastly favour EA and the SE.

[Snowmaggedon]

MO seem to have removed the warnings for next week?

[northumberland snowman]

15 minutes ago, Snowmaggedon said:

MO seem to have removed the warnings for next week?

Looks like it was just updating.

 

Looks like another marginal event. I fear a sleety mix for most of us on low ground. 

[Snowmaggedon]

2 hours ago, NickR said:

And the E'ly that might happen still seems to me to vastly favour EA and the SE.

Think it’s too early to write off something that hasn’t even been confirmed one way or another yet. As long as we are in the game we’ve got as good a chance as anyone else in the East. 

[damianslaw]

In probably the best position all winter so far to receive something substantively colder in the not too distant future I.e. first half of Feb, and optimal time to feel full effects as well before solar induced energy begins to take effect. 

[Rollo]

There appear to be some light snow showers heading WSW from the North Sea.

[northumberland snowman]

Surprise very light dusting overnight. 

 

Beast still looking good for next weekend although definitely not a certainty...

[Rollo]

Slight dusting here as well but with the ECM playing funny buggers the period it will last is open to question.

[tynevalleysnow]

Looking like quite a snowy week here. Starts late Monday and goes till Thursday if you believe the METO. As for January here 30/31 days delivered an air frost and snow lay 31/31 days. Coldest January here since 2010.

[Snowmaggedon]

Looks like GFS 6z is very good for us!!!

[Rollo]

1 minute ago, Snowmaggedon said:

Looks like GFS 6z is very good for us!!!

Hang on the indecision on the charts because of ECM still leaves us hanging on exactly what the outcome might be, it could be a huge disappointment—- or we could get buried, another 48 hours should decide it, what a performance it is to get proper cold into this country this year.

[Phil Blake]

1 hour ago, Rollo said:

Hang on the indecision on the charts because of ECM still leaves us hanging on exactly what the outcome might be, it could be a huge disappointment—- or we could get buried, another 48 hours should decide it, what a performance it is to get proper cold into this country this year.

I've seen more drama this winter in models than a lifetime on the BBC. The 6z gfs would bury us if it came off though.