Far north and northeast of England weather discussion

[gazzac69]

1 minute ago, Snowmaggedon said:

Am I right in thinking we have a threat for snow tomorrow evening even at lower levels or is our best bet from Sunday onwards? 

Models/forecasts are indicating that, I personally think IMBY it will start turning late tomorrow afternoon

[damianslaw]

2 hours ago, Jarrow Posh said:

Not as poor as the MO app.Apparently nothing falling from the sky for 4 days apparently.

Now I know these apps are notoriously rubbish but how can the MO even put their name to something so bad.

I ignore them. Many a time it's raining and the app shows cloud and 0% chance of rain. No human interpretation.. downside to a world reliant on technological predictions..

[Smoggieontour]

17 minutes ago, Snowmaggedon said:

Am I right in thinking we have a threat for snow tomorrow evening even at lower levels or is our best bet from Sunday onwards? 

Think it'll turn to snow from about 8pm here mate. Probably be a bit of a slushy mess at first as will probably rain most of tomorrow afternoon, but dew points falling away after midnight on Sunday so settling won't be a problem after that.

[garylaverick]

23 minutes ago, Snowmaggedon said:

Am I right in thinking we have a threat for snow tomorrow evening even at lower levels or is our best bet from Sunday onwards? 

The WRF NMM is almost in range now, most of the region is covered by -6 uppers at 4pm with the -8's following on quickly. I'd expect it to be starting to turn wintry in to early evening. The next run will take us through to 1am Sunday and as that low pulls away and the easterly feed establishes I'd expect to see the convection being modelled more intensely.

 

 

Edited February 5, 2021 by garylaverick

[Summer Sun]

Snow and ice warning issued from 00:00 Monday until 12:00 Wednesday

Snow showers may lead to disruption to travel in places.

What to expect

• Some roads and railways likely to be affected with longer journey times by road, bus and train services. Small chance of longer travel delays in places with some stranded vehicles and passengers, along with delayed or cancelled rail and air travel
• Some injuries from slips and falls on icy surfaces
• Probably some icy patches on some untreated roads, pavements and cycle paths
• There is a slight chance that some rural communities could become cut off
• There is a small chance that power cuts will occur and other services, such as mobile phone coverage, may be affected

Snow showers will feed off the North Sea into many northern and eastern areas of the UK. Whilst some areas in the warning area will remain largely dry, some persistent bands of showers are likely to develop in places. Widespread daily accumulations of 2-5 cm are probable, with 10-15 cm plausible in areas where showers merge into more organised and prolonged spells of snow. Icy stretches will likely form widely overnight, especially in areas where there has been a partial melt of lying snow during the daytime.

• Darlington
• Durham
• Gateshead
• Hartlepool
• Middlesbrough
• Newcastle upon Tyne
• North Tyneside
• Northumberland
• Redcar and Cleveland
• South Tyneside
• Stockton-on-Tees
• Sunderland

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/warnings-and-advice/uk-warnings#?date=2021-02-09&id=ce81df33-8c42-42f3-bb88-880fd65ad316&details

 

[Mercury Rising]

Sunderland is also looking quite bleak atm for snow on the weather apps. All the recent snow fall has circumvented the city and fell further inland. I have my fingers firmly crossed we'll see some substantial snow next week

[P-M]

8 minutes ago, Mercury Rising said:

Sunderland is also looking quite bleak atm for snow on the weather apps. All the recent snow fall has circumvented the city and fell further inland. I have my fingers firmly crossed we'll see some substantial snow next week

Best advice I can give is don't take any notice of the weather apps. Follow the metoffice actual forecast and posters on here. 

 

Sunderland is in a great location for convective snow set ups so definitely not looking bleak at all. 

[Snowmaggedon]

10-15cm if we strike lucky!!!! Bring it on!!!

[seabreeze86]

3 minutes ago, Snowmaggedon said:

10-15cm if we strike lucky!!!! Bring it on!!!

That’s daily if I’ve read it right 2-5 Cm daily or 10-15 daily 

I honestly think this easterly is being underplayed think there will be some big totals 

[Frosty the Snowman]

8 minutes ago, seabreeze86 said:

That’s daily if I’ve read it right 2-5 Cm daily or 10-15 daily 

I honestly think this easterly is being underplayed think there will be some big totals 

That's the insane optimist/high ground forecast. 

 

45cm by Monday night would be some event. the more likely scenario would be 2-5cm one day and then 7/8 another - which would still give you 15cm - nothing to be sniffed at. 

[Dahonis]

Hey readers, leave those apps alone (in a pink floyd stylie) 

[seabreeze86]

Just now, Frosty the Snowman said:

That's the insane optimist/high ground forecast. 

 

45cm by Monday night would be some event. the more likely scenario would be 2-5cm one day and then 7/8 another - which would still give you 15cm - nothing to be sniffed at. 

To true .Think the usual suspects will do well , north York moors etc

15 cm for Redcar would be amazing 

[NickR]

Parts of EA and Kent forecast to be at 50cm of lying snow by Wednesday. Might be time to tune out of the media to avoid severe bouts of envy!

[North East Blizzard]

Current weather Consett

WWW.METEOBLUE.COM

---

What’s the weather in Consett? Get high resolution satellite, rain radar images and hourly forecasts.

Worth a look, hopefully we will see the showers building out in the North sea in the coming days

[Gizzy]

56 minutes ago, NickR said:

Parts of EA and Kent forecast to be at 50cm of lying snow by Wednesday. Might be time to tune out of the media to avoid severe bouts of envy!

Snow is snow isn't it really.

Doesn't matter whether you get 10cm or 100cm, it is still white and snowy isn't it. The difference is in how quick it disappears but I have a feeling we are in this for a good few weeks so will be sticking around anyway.

[Snowmaggedon]

1 hour ago, NickR said:

Parts of EA and Kent forecast to be at 50cm of lying snow by Wednesday. Might be time to tune out of the media to avoid severe bouts of envy!

I’d be happy with 10cm never mind 50cm. 

[Continental Climate]

17 minutes ago, Gizzy said:

Snow is snow isn't it really.

Doesn't matter whether you get 10cm or 100cm, it is still white and snowy isn't it. The difference is in how quick it disappears but I have a feeling we are in this for a good few weeks so will be sticking around anyway.

The met have just said breakdown by next weekend as have all the models. It will breakdown by next weekend the question is for how long.  

[Smoggieontour]

Aye, don't know why people worry about what other parts of the country are getting. Just enjoy whatever you get. My current thinking on snow depths for Teesside are:

By Sunday night - 2cm

By Monday night - 7cm

By Tuesday night - 10cm

Obviously if we get lucky and a streamer hits us, it'll be more, but could get unlucky and end up with less. Think this will be similar for low-lying areas of Tyne and Wear. I expect the NYM, North Pennines, Northumberland, Consett/Stanley to all end up with 30cm quite easily.

[Gizzy]

4 minutes ago, Continental Climate said:

The met have just said breakdown by next weekend as have all the models. It will breakdown by next weekend the question is for how long.  

I remain to be convinced, still a lot of uncertainty and guessing beyond Thursday,

To be honest this cold air that we are currently in ( though this will be warm in comparison by Monday ) was meant to break down several times in the last month but has just continued to niggle away.

I actually think we may get the odd one or two very short milder blips but my thinking is we are in this cold stream for the rest of this month at least and even early March.

[Freezing-Point]

Been a while since I have been on here.  Been busy.

 

A few comments to kick off with

1. This is coinciding with the 30th anniversary start of the 1991 easterly.  Happy birthday !!!
2. I recall that spell started with a very dry flow from a massive scandi high.  Snow started as very light for a day before any showers built up.  This time its very different far more moisture from the start
3. During the 2018 spell, along the 10mile (or more) coastal strip, most of the showers blew over quickly then developed inland where they gave prolonged spells of snow.   This was not the case in 1991 and I hope its not going to be this time either
4. Precipitation charts are showing streamers developing out in the N. Sea.   Lets hope they do and you are under one!!!

 

ENJOY!!!!

 

[Willitwontit]

I love snow. I also love the excitement and anticipation of the build up on the forums. I'm no expert, and can't make head nor tail of the charts and figure posts that go up. But what I do know, is that pretty much every time there has been any whiff of the white stuff since this time last year, as the week progresses, the amazing, severe weather predictions fizzle out to pretty much nothing. Just checked now and lo and behold, yesterday looked excellent from Sat afternoon onwards, solid snow all next week, now it looks as though we will be lucky if we get anything over the weekend, and I'm sure it will drop off the radar next week too. 

I wish I could keep off the forums and just look out of the window!! But I can't.

 

Anyone any predictions for Cramlington? Maybes we are just too close to the salty sea........

Edited February 5, 2021 by Willitwontit

[Gizzy]

5 minutes ago, Willitwontit said:

I love snow. I also love the excitement and anticipation of the build up on the forums. I'm no expert, and can't make head nor tail of the charts and figure posts that go up. But what I do know, is that pretty much every time there has been any whiff of the white stuff since this time last year, as the week progresses, the amazing, severe weather predictions fizzle out to pretty much nothing. Just checked now and lo and behold, yesterday looked excellent from Sat afternoon onwards, solid snow all next week, now it looks as though we will be lucky if we get anything over the weekend, and I'm sure it will drop off the radar next week too. 

I wish I could keep off the forums and just look out of the window!! But I can't.

 

Anyone any predictions for Cramlington? Maybes we are just too close to the salty sea........

Bit like you I am not that knowledgeable with the charts but thankfully at times like this you don't need to be.

I wouldn't get too down, things will chop and change in the next day or so and all next week it will all be flash warnings depending on where the streamers form, I am sure we will all see plenty of the white stuff.

I actually think that being next to the sea won't have any negative effect except the salty air will get rid of your lying snow quicker even in the freezing temperatures.

[Geordiesnow]

Still a small question mark about Sunday daytime on just how convective it will be, might be some suggestion that lapse rates are not as low as one might think so whilst we probably will still see showers, it could be more capped so not quite cumunimbus clouds however Sunday night onwards the charts seem to suggest more deeper convection.

Whatever happens, snow will fall in all parts of the NE for a good number of days so a decent spell of weather.

[seabreeze86]

North Sea snow machine ACTIVATE 

[P-M]

3 minutes ago, seabreeze86 said:

North Sea snow machine ACTIVATE 

I prefer that graphic to ICON lol 

 

I think we all know there's going to be some snowfall widely along the NE coast. What makes it exciting is that we won't know until the lamppost and radar watching begins. 

I much prefer convective snowfall to frontal for that reason.