Model output discussion - Into 2021

[georgiedre]

4 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:

I genuinely think well be looking at systems trying to push in very sluggishly creating battleground snow before the cold wins out mid month

Like we said this morning before the met 

[SMU]

Big swing south on the -8c isotherm at T54 on the GFS ... More alligned into Norfolk & essex 

Then @60 spreads SW means more in the way of snow

 

[Battleground Snow]

8 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:

I genuinely think well be looking at systems trying to push in very sluggishly creating battleground snow before the cold wins out mid month

Cold pool a little further south at 60,may just be enough now for south east members 

Edit: Steve is too fast for me today haha

Edited January 2, 2021 by Battleground Snow

[Scott Ingham]

Just now, georgiedre said:

Like we said this morning before the met 

Yes mate. What the GFS modelled this morning makes zero sense. The ONLY thing backing up such a run is a push from 2-3-4 of the MJO

In my opinion out if the 3 things snowking posted its option 1.

The models not modelling the ssw and level of amp from the huge eamt event.

[Scott Ingham]

1 minute ago, Battleground Snow said:

Cold pool a little further south at 60,may just be enough now for south east members 

 

Fantastic upgrade on the 850s again!

[sheikhy]

2 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

Cold pool a little further south at 60,may just be enough now for south east members 

Edit: Steve is too fast for me today haha

Aint gona complain as thats perfectly placed for me in the midlands!!

[Daniel*]

The upgrades continue further SE with snow potential

>

 

Edited January 2, 2021 by Paul
Removed non-model discussion

[Scott Ingham]

1 minute ago, Daniel* said:

The upgrades continue further SE with snow potential

>

 

Its the first time ive seen monday upgrade mate. Before its been tuesday and wednesday 

[Tim Bland]

BOOM! Really starting to pile up in the south by midweek. I hope they have put the army on Standby!!!!!!

Edited January 2, 2021 by Tim Bland

[feb1991blizzard]

Here is the Allcock / Bryant run.

[Scott Ingham]

2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Here is the Allcock / Bryant run.

Do you still think well breakdown mid month??

[ICE COLD]

UKMO 120 

[That ECM]

The high is trying to go NW. Better than 06.

[Scott Ingham]

Verticle ridge on the 12z! GfS! Better

[chionomaniac]

1 hour ago, sebastiaan1973 said:

Well. In my opinion there is first an increase of westerlies in the lower parts of the Atmosphere. As shown in 144h.

Lol. That’s nothing. Put it alongside the corresponding 12Z T+144 chart Trop ECM chart and you can understand why. Is this the increase in trop u wind that you are concerned about. Not me.

I think most of us on here would take this if that is the most extreme in westerlies forecast.

[MKN]

9 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

BOOM! Really starting to pile up in the south by midweek. I hope they have put the army on Standby!!!!!!

The lack of predicted snowfall doesn't seem to concern anyone so long as it's cold enough for snow lol

[Griff]

96hrs on GFSP 

[mountain shadow]

T144 UKMO not great.

Ridge to Greenland collapsing.

[Radiating Dendrite]

2 minutes ago, MKN said:

The lack of predicted snowfall doesn't seem to concern anyone so long as it's cold enough for snow lol

In all fairness when they show snow it never happens - feel there is more chance when they show nothing. 

[That ECM]

Always liked the gfs

[sheikhy]

Remember what i said earlier about whether we are looking at the wrong place for height rises!!well lookk at the ukmo looks like its shifting heights to scandi now!!!

[Cold Winter Night]

Just now, That ECM said:

Always liked the gfs

Notable differences in Northern Canada (stronger heights) and in Scandi/Northwest Russia/Nova Zembla (weaker heights).

[mulzy]

3 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

T144 UKMO not great.

Ridge to Greenland collapsing.

It's still decent - quite similar to the ECM 0z run.

[Scott Ingham]

5 minutes ago, MKN said:

The lack of predicted snowfall doesn't seem to concern anyone so long as it's cold enough for snow lol

It cant model snowfall thats why i would onoy pay attention to hi res within 48 hours and thats too far out. Ive had 2 moderate snowfalls which have settled that wouldnt show on that chart. Trash can stuff unless the model is high enough resolution

[ancientsolar]

potential low trying to develop over us ?  (why is my chat underscoring , it's not even on)