Model output discussion - Into 2021

[Cold Winter Night]

1 minute ago, sheikhy said:

Remember what i said earlier about whether we are looking at the wrong place for height rises!!well lookk at the ukmo looks like its shifting heights to scandi now!!!

Seems like GFS an UKMO are moving in opposite directions there.

[Battleground Snow]

So it looks like the Ukmo and GFS switched to each others output from the 00z runs. Typical!

Para is backing it's brother with small differences. 120 attached

God knows what the ECM is going to show later at 120.

 

[Scott Ingham]

4 minutes ago, That ECM said:

Always liked the gfs

Remember mushys mean charts??? 

This is what we should expect at this time frame

[Griff]

GFSP 120

[Cloud 10]

1 hour ago, Man With Beard said:

Great chart - so 80% ECM accuracy at D7 but 50% accuracy at D10 ... tells us a lot about which charts to take seriously.

Does anyone have recent stats for ECM ensemble mean? I thought they had better verification, something like 60-70% accuracy, but I may have remembered wrong.

 

Can't find any up to the minute data on ensemble mean verification,only seasonal comparisons.

https://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/users/verification/global/gefs/ops/geo/

 

[That ECM]

Just now, Scott Ingham said:

Remember mushys mean charts??? 

This is what we should expect at this time frame

Against the ukmo tho. 

[Griff]

Just now, That ECM said:

Against the ukmo tho. 

All FI after 120?

[Scott Ingham]

Just now, That ECM said:

Against the ukmo tho. 

Against them mean charts.

They are VERY rarely wrong im sure Mr Holmes would agree. This GFS sits where we should be on the blended mean. Its got credence

[Notty]

GFS(P) 06z -v- GFS(P) 12z - quite different at just five days away. The models are really having trouble at the moment (IMHO)

[That ECM]

3 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:

Against them mean charts.

They are VERY rarely wrong im sure Mr Holmes would agree. This GFS sits where we should be on the blended mean. Its got credence

Oh agree it’s a possibility but would of preferred Ukmo to have shown.Looks like gfs will produce output showing snow so we can debate in detail who will get it and who won’t.

Edited January 2, 2021 by That ECM

[Cold Winter Night]

1 minute ago, Scott Ingham said:

Against them mean charts.

They are VERY rarely wrong im sure Mr Holmes would agree. This GFS sits where we should be on the blended mean. Its got credence

Interestingly, GFS makes much more of the Arctic high this run.

[Scott Ingham]

Just now, That ECM said:

Oh agree it’s a possibility but would of preferred Ukmo to have shown.

Its pre ssw getting continuity is very hard! Dont look past 120 hours buddy use means and clusters to this timeframe and you wont be up and down every run

[Scott Ingham]

1 minute ago, Cold Winter Night said:

Interestingly, GFS makes much more of the Arctic high this run.

Its a cracking run so far. Approaching the battleground period now. Remember yesyerdays ecm? Thats my landing zone day 10

[Griff]

1 minute ago, Cold Winter Night said:

Interestingly, GFS makes much more of the Arctic high this run.

As is GFSP 

[That ECM]

1 minute ago, Scott Ingham said:

Its pre ssw getting continuity is very hard! Dont look past 120 hours buddy use means and clusters to this timeframe and you wont be up and down every run

I’m not up and down every run. Living in Bournemouth I wait until I might get snow from

[Notty]

Although FI is only five days I like the look of GFS and GFS (P) for next weekend

[V for Very Cold]

What a remarkable turnaround... not Just in the models

but the tone of the posts!

[TSNWK]

Now this is how I think the NH should be looking as SSW kicks in.. will always be a case on how the cards land foe details on the ground.

PS I’m I the odd one out who actually liked the UKM 144? if you call collapsing a migration of heights from Iceland to northern scandi.. then knock yourself out! ukm

[chris55]

11 minutes ago, ancientsolar said:

potential low trying to develop over us ?  (why is my chat underscoring , it's not even on)

Like this chart! This caught my eye as the run was coming out. This originates to the north as a pulse of energy from the main vortex to the north, then heads south. 
 

Though it’s one solution of many changeable options at the moment, but something to watch  

[Battleground Snow]

Para about to blow up the low at 150, trying to pin down details on that would be nightmare for forecasters.

96-120 FI at the moment I think.

 

[Allseasons-Si]

Fantastic upgrades on the 12z with that GHP

gfs/gfs//p

meanwhile,...here we had a good 3cm's of snaw,the pooch enjoyed it

 

[Scott Ingham]

So ive spoke a lot about what a mild blip would look like after greenland ridging and low and behold we have diving low pressures going south under a Greenland wedge.

For me the ECM run yesterday and this GFS is where i believe well be.

To be followed by Iceland/Scandi ridge and deeper cold

I bever bought that breakdown like that and i still dont either

Runners into cold dense air.

So as i say milder blip but snowier blip followed by deeper cold

Edited January 2, 2021 by Scott Ingham

[Cloud 10]

GFS throwing down a small chunk of PV towards us.

 

[Cold Winter Night]

4 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

Now this is how I think the NH should be looking as SSW kicks in.. will always be a case on how the cards land foe details on the ground.

PS I’m I the odd one out who actually liked the UKM 144? if you call collapsing a migration of heights from Iceland to northern scandi.. then knock yourself out! ukm

I like UKMO 144 too. With the lows over Europe it probably will not easily collapse and Scandi heights are always good.

It's just very different from GFS. I think both are good for cold.

Edited January 2, 2021 by Cold Winter Night

[Harsh Climate]

 GFS 228, has slider about to deliver snow to the south, probably help draw in a north easterly feed.

Edited January 2, 2021 by Harsh Climate