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Model output discussion - Into 2021


Paul
Message added by Paul,

Please stick to discussing the model output in this thread. For more general chat , please use the winter/cold weather/snow chat, banter, moans and ramps thread

For local cold/snow and weather related chat, please head over to the Regional Area.

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Posted
  • Location: Aviemore
  • Location: Aviemore

A new thread for a new year and 2021 is getting off to a cold start. 

As is always the case, please keep it friendly in here. This thread is solely for discussing the models, so please don't use it for general banter, moans and ramps,  discussing tv / internet forecasts from the BBC, Met Office etc or 'will it snow' type localised weather chat. 

A few useful alternative threads are:

Winter chat and moans thread
Cold spell discussion
Regional weather chat

Model Output And Charts On Netweather:
UKV (Extra subscribers)
GFS
GEFS Ensembles
ECMWF
ECMWF EPS
NetWx-SR (3km)
NetWx-MR (9km)
Met Office (UKMO)
Fax
GEM
GFS Hourly

Model Comparison
Golbal Jetstream
Stratosphere

Happy New Year!

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Posted
  • Location: St Austell,Cornwall
  • Location: St Austell,Cornwall
7 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

Slightly less cold uppers on the gfs out to 72h

Where? Greenland

Looks pretty much the same if you compare the two together

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Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
2 minutes ago, That ECM said:

Where you looking?

F71194C2-2391-4554-A5D2-BBA92409D66C.png

41A872C3-71D5-437A-BF11-60AC307F5C8C.png

GFS actually shows snow moving in at 90hrs.suspect a more ec run here with the high pulling away west on this 6z run. Hopefully

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Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
Just now, swfc said:

GFS actually shows snow moving in at 90hrs.suspect a more ec run here with the high pulling away west on this 6z run. Hopefully

At T108 that is a big change

0A23CEA8-F5D6-4C2F-8786-439192FBF361.png

40509C8A-3A0A-4FEA-BB1B-2B22B4F2AA84.png

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Well, if the 06Z is right (and I can't imagine it being too far wrong) the best thing to do will be to look out the window:

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
1 minute ago, sheikhy said:

Hows the uppers looking mate?any -8s in there like ecm and ukmo!!

Aye, the odd -9, further up in thread, E Mids area

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Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
6 minutes ago, swfc said:

GFS actually shows snow moving in at 90hrs.suspect a more ec run here with the high pulling away west on this 6z run. Hopefully

Yes, more in the way of precip than ECM ??

4C80D8D9-EF97-4D04-B1BD-1791305EA908.png

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Posted
  • Location: St Austell,Cornwall
  • Location: St Austell,Cornwall
5 minutes ago, That ECM said:

At T108 that is a big change

0A23CEA8-F5D6-4C2F-8786-439192FBF361.png

40509C8A-3A0A-4FEA-BB1B-2B22B4F2AA84.png

If you look between the 0z/06z you can see a improvement regarding heights around the Atlantic and does seem to head into Greenland for a time 

Though sightly different timeframes 

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Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
1 minute ago, Skullzrulerz said:

If you look between the 0z/06z you can see a improvement regarding heights around the Atlantic and does seem to head into Greenland for a time 

Though sightly different timeframes 

Think it’s going to sink. Not for me.

E65DCD2F-8639-48EA-BD7E-2053B1A90ADC.png

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Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill

GFS 06z similar to 0z with the trough not dropping at d6:

06z>2013072331_gfseu-0-138(1).thumb.png.3bc835c1642ba8463f9aecedc47b51e9.png 0z>959338711_gfseu-0-144(1).thumb.png.be73c44befa4984da2913a07544019bd.png

New trend or entropy?

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Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
10 minutes ago, Griff said:

Satisfactory at 126

gfsnh-0-126 (2).png

gfsnh-1-126.png

May need the troops moving South but cold should become home grown and to the east. OK this run. Edit. Excellent at the 160 hrs mark 850s dropping South and east

Edited by swfc
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