Model output discussion - Into 2021

[Penrith Snow]

Wow, that is an impressive amount of snow!

[Frosty.]

Holy Cow..here’s the GEFS 6z mean, chart order all over the place..go figure!...and for the most part it’s jolly cold..with a risk of snaw..a far cry from recent pathetic winters!..of course, I realise this is not set in stone..what is beyond 3 days..hmm?...but I have a good feeling about where this winter is heading compared to recent abysmal ones!..

Edited January 1, 2021 by Jon Snow

[Penrith Snow]

The upgrade in ECM temperatures (lower) is reflected in the latest BBC forecast which has knocked a good 2c off surface temperatures on Monday/Tuesday with much more emphasis on wintry weather next week.

How often does a cold spell upgrade at +48! Same thing happened this week with the northerly low, much more snow and lower temperatures than what was being modelled last weekend.

Interesting that Netweather amateurs said those max figures for next week were too high and now after 12 hours the Beeb catches  up.

 

Andy

 

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, Penrith Snow said:

The upgrade in ECM temperatures (lower) is reflected in the latest BBC forecast which has knocked a good 2c off surface temperatures on Monday/Tuesday with much more emphasis on wintry weather next week.

How often does a cold spell upgrade at +48! Same thing happened this week with the northerly low, much more snow and lower temperatures than what was being modelled last weekend.

Interesting that Netweather amateurs said those max figures for next week were too high and now after 12 hours the Beeb catches  up.

 

Andy

 

I haven't seen it Andy...

Good to hear the forecast has updated to reflect the EC surface temps posted...

More upgrades please  ...

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Firstly..excellent summary @Catacol I can't add much to that summary apart from...I love it when he talks dirty to us...namely....strat destruction and cold pools galore..

I'm noticing some of the ens im posting seem to be picking up on some kind of signals to build more intense cold pools to the NE and East...im feeling confident these cold pools will begin to intensity over the coming days..especially beyond day 7..either way im not really used to seeing such a wimpish Atlantic...Im with catacol...let's destroy the Vortex and not allow it to recover...DOWN WITH THE VORTEX...LONG LIVE THE BEAST..

And just worth adding for every 3 major warming events...2 of those will bring the much colder scenario to the   I'm pretty sure we will take those odds...

[Tim Bland]

16 minutes ago, Penrith Snow said:

The upgrade in ECM temperatures (lower) is reflected in the latest BBC forecast which has knocked a good 2c off surface temperatures on Monday/Tuesday with much more emphasis on wintry weather next week.

How often does a cold spell upgrade at +48! Same thing happened this week with the northerly low, much more snow and lower temperatures than what was being modelled last weekend.

Interesting that Netweather amateurs said those max figures for next week were too high and now after 12 hours the Beeb catches  up.

 

Andy

 

I’m not sure it is a case of them catching up, they just seem to blindly follow the ECM without a regard for other models. If ECM went back to rain later they would too...although they also seem to always be using the ECM from up to 24hrs ago. thankfully a flip back is unlikely now but it’s a balancing act between getting the precip and getting the lower temps / DPs . This morning GFS was a reasonable compromise with only a short window where temps were not conducive, but there was plenty of precip all of next week for most. ECM now looks fairly dry until Thursday. Will need the high res models to resolve the placement of troughs / streamers etc so won’t see that detail until Sunday 

[Frosty.]

My last word on the GEFS 6z..honest guv!..but seriously..never mind feel the burn..feel the chill people!..too me, the odds favour a cold extended outlook

Edited January 1, 2021 by Jon Snow

[SLEETY]

26 minutes ago, Penrith Snow said:

The upgrade in ECM temperatures (lower) is reflected in the latest BBC forecast which has knocked a good 2c off surface temperatures on Monday/Tuesday with much more emphasis on wintry weather next week.

How often does a cold spell upgrade at +48! Same thing happened this week with the northerly low, much more snow and lower temperatures than what was being modelled last weekend.

Interesting that Netweather amateurs said those max figures for next week were too high and now after 12 hours the Beeb catches  up.

 

Andy

 

Probably be lower still by Monday.The BBC forecasters always overplay temps in cold spells for some reason,are they looking at different models.Their  forecast max yesterday was 3c higher than reality here

Think most places will see some snow next week,then trending even colder it looks like.

Edited January 1, 2021 by SLEETY

[Methuselah]

As I always keep reminding myself, what the charts/models are showing, now, has absolutely no influence on what the weather will do, sometime next week: if it turns to be cold rain/sleet, it'll be 'meh'; should it end up snowing, it'll be 'wahey'! 

[snowking]

1 hour ago, Catacol said:

 

To conclude, and answering your question directly, I remain a bit uncertain as to whether it will split. A week ago my confidence was up....but the forecast for 4/5/6 has backed away from a split and we have to see whether wave 2 can gather again. Looking at the EPS anomalies and the strength of the EAMT happening now it is a definite possibility but I’ll keep my powder dry for a day or three longer. We are getting a good long cold spell whatever. For it to be historic I think we need significantly low CETs in both Jan and Feb and that’s what I’m crossing fingers for! 

Great stuff as always.

In terms of the split, the last set of postage stamps we’ve had sight of was 12z yesterday for day 15 - I’m more inclined to think that any split at 10mb will be out towards day 15 now. At this point on the 12z EPS, 33 of the 51 members had a split, with 4 or 5 others very close to a split at that stage - which makes sense given, as you said, the continued Ural high/Aleutian low setup sending more wave activity into an already severely bruised vortex.

Given the current favourable trop synoptics, and assuming of course that we don’t see too much interference of the short term pattern in the meantime via any SSW effects, this would hold a lot of promise for something even more substantial through the final third of January and into early February - that could well just be the cherry on top by that point.

[SLEETY]

Think some insane runs will appear in the next few days,their been hints of it recently,the Minus 15 line should me making an appearance in some of the ops in the coming days,can the servers handle the overload incoming.

 

[KTtom]

It'll be interesting to see how the models shape up in the far reaches of FI over the comming days as they factor in the SSW. The updated extended forecast from Met going for it to turn colder with risk of snow for the end of the month. (Put the first line in to keep it model related )

[Bricriu]

3 minutes ago, KTtom said:

It'll be interesting to see how the models shape up in the far reaches of FI over the comming days as they factor in the SSW. The updated extended forecast from Met going for it to turn colder with risk of snow for the end of the month. (Put the first line in to keep it model related )

Hopefully the next bit of good news is a leak about the Met Office warning to contingency planners of a very severe cold outbreak after the middle of January. I would love to see what their in house models is seeing, i suppose we all would.

Edited January 1, 2021 by Bricriu

[northwestsnow]

* BIG UPGRADE FROM EXETER ALERT*

Now I'm really looking forward to the 12z runs !!!

The EC ens look cold, GEFS look cold, things are going to upgrade IMO...

[Updated_Weather]

1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

* BIG UPGRADE FROM EXETER ALERT*

Now I'm really looking forward to the 12z runs !!!

The EC ens look cold, GEFS look cold, things are going to upgrade IMO...

Got a link?

[Purga]

4 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

* BIG UPGRADE FROM EXETER ALERT*

Now I'm really looking forward to the 12z runs !!!

The EC ens look cold, GEFS look cold, things are going to upgrade IMO...

Yep - I really like this bit

"Toward the end of the month colder conditions become more probable, this bringing an increasing chance of snow."

So positive stuff for those worrying about a putative milding ala GFS Op runs.

Happy New Year to All BTW

Edited January 1, 2021 by Purga

[Summer Sun]

3 minutes ago, Updated_Weather said:

Got a link?

https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/64157-meto-uk-further-outlook/page/344/?tab=comments#comment-4345538

 

[Purga]

3 minutes ago, Updated_Weather said:

Got a link?

Weather and climate change

WWW.METOFFICE.GOV.UK

---

Met Office weather forecasts for the UK. World leading weather services for the public.

[Blessed Weather]

BBC and Met Office discussions creeping back into the thread. Sorry, but any more will be either moved or deleted. Link to the correct thread below. Thanks.

 

[Bricriu]

13 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

* BIG UPGRADE FROM EXETER ALERT*

Now I'm really looking forward to the 12z runs !!!

The EC ens look cold, GEFS look cold, things are going to upgrade IMO...

Well it looks increasingly likely, at least initially, that there will be a relaxation of the cold for some of us. You have to hand it to the GFS if this does happen, because they were the first to suggest it. I'm sure most of us would endure a milder interruption if snow nirvana followed it.

Edited January 1, 2021 by Bricriu

[Tim Bland]

5 minutes ago, Bricriu said:

Well it looks increasingly likely, at least initially, that there will be a relaxation of the cold for some of us. You have to hand it to the GFS if this does happen, because they were the first to suggest it. I'm sure most of us would endure a milder interruption if snow nirvana followed it.

Hmm not sure I agree with this. GFS is the only model we view that goes 2 weeks plus so it will always be first to see something? I’d also argue that it is the GEFS ensembles that have spotted a slight trend with the op all over the show at the end. The ECM extended ensembles have also been showing a general trend towards something more average mid month for some time & I’d expect the Metoffice to take more notice of the Eps than GEFS

Edited January 1, 2021 by Tim Bland

[Snowjokes92]

2 hours ago, winterof79 said:

West Yorkshire near Pennines 

Definetly looking like Sotland/north west and yorkshire been a sweet spot at the moment for a decent dumping soon and many surprises to come elsewhere. Thats even been the case with the swings and changes amongst the output. Still been a persistent likelihood for snow in these parts. I only imagine many other parts been involved as uppers and dew points become less marginal, say on the east coasts for example. Just keep watching the radar

happy new year all 

[Battleground Snow]

Can't tell if it's wet or white yet, but looks like streamers as early as 45 hours on the icon

 

[Bricriu]

6 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Hmm not sure I agree with this. GFS is the only model we view that goes 2 weeks plus so it will always be first to see something? I’d also argue that it is the GEFS ensembles that have spotted a slight trend with the op all over the show at the end. The ECM extended ensembles have also been showing a general trend towards something more average mid month for some time & I’d expect the Metoffice to take more notice of the Eps than GEFS

There were some GFS runs over the last while that suggested a  return to milder conditions, but they were isolated runs. However i have noticed this before with the GFS, it can signal something , drop it for a few runs, then pick it up again.

[sebastiaan1973]

2 hours ago, Catacol said:

And while we are talking about points of significance the heights being forecast over Western Greenland as a 10 day anomaly are also significant. Not often a 10 day anomaly hits the pink shading. This point is Webb’s - not a spot I made myself. Anyway a west based setup - but with such stagnant Atlantic flow not really a major problem for U.K. cold.

 

 

Thanks for telling your ideas.

For me it is a little bit different. Partly because I live in the Netherlands. For some good winter weather we need an easterly wind. Next days we have, but the temperature remains mostly above zero.

Further on. The analogue of february 2010 seems to me the best we have. We had in 2010 a split SSW, a quick deceleration of the zonals winds, weak vortex at 100 hPa and Greenland blocking at the day of onset (theory Domeisen et al).

Just like 2010 we first had a period of GL blocking, followed by high pressure Northpole, Greenland, Real cold air can't reach us. It's polar martime air.  There was no signficant high pressure in Scandinavia , just like 11-15 days ahead EC shows. The following step is a westerly negative NAO by EC46 is a western negative NAO in which the danger exists of mild air pusht into Europe. The development we saw in 2010.

So I'm not that optimistic. But I understand you live in England and snow is what you like and that seems good possible