Model output discussion - Into 2021

[Cloud 10]

GFS (P) 204 HRS.

 

[winterof79]

2 minutes ago, Harsh Climate said:

Even the toppler seems to be very slow in pushing in and might fail, rather than the gfs having the atlantic steam roll through which it normally like to do.

 

Side note, anyone know why Fergie weather doesn't post on here anymore? Miss his professional view on the models and little hints of what the bbc/met are thinking lol

People using his quotes on social media

[SMU]

3 minutes ago, Griff said:

What's the B word? @Steve Murr

Not yet... waiting for the right moment..

[Mucka]

14 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Looks Like the low is sliding south keeping the ridge to our west

 

Hi, that is another low a few days later. The important one is around the 6th which splits energy  120/126

 

 

[Frostbite1980]

7 minutes ago, snowice said:

Times like this you wish the ukmo went past 144hrs.

Didn't it go to 168 last year for a freebie? 

[Jason M]

GEFS out to 144 is basically random scatter. lots and lots of uncertainty tonight.

[Kasim Awan]

BOOM

[Tim Bland]

Nationwide snow event next weekend from the GEM as that low slides south... 

[sheikhy]

1 minute ago, Kasim Awan said:

BOOM

Question is will we get snow showers from that or is the pressure to high?

[Radiating Dendrite]

1 minute ago, sheikhy said:

Question is will we get snow showers from that or is the pressure to high?

Rain for lowland SE according to the Met still.

[Kasim Awan]

1 minute ago, sheikhy said:

Question is will we get snow showers from that or is the pressure to high?

That will produce a 50m asl temp of 1.78c in showers so yes, in the short window of -7/-8 uppers snow is likely & there are troughs in there too.

[Matt H]

8 minutes ago, Radiating Dendrite said:

Rain for lowland SE according to the Met still.

If we still get rain even when we have -8C uppers I will honestly give up this hobby.

Edited January 1, 2021 by Frosty Winter

[Chertseystreamer79]

13 minutes ago, booferking said:

Just knew it was going to be a cracker as early on as 120hr.

Run of the winter so far in my eyes

Even has a smile on its face!!! Happy happy happy!

[Tim Bland]

3 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Question is will we get snow showers from that or is the pressure to high?

I’d guess at light flurries in the south east drier further north and west

[Catacol]

30 minutes ago, Drifter said:

Not that good imo - won’t the ridge now start sinking?

Not if amplification is in process. Look upstream and pick the drivers. I think we will find the block maintaining high latitude as a pacific induced wave break pushes through. See the animation here, though unfortunately not available beyond 192. That’s a proper wave break and you can see more ex-pacific jet coming up behind to sustain it. It’s a pity we can’t get ECM equivalents because as the SSW begins ECM is going to pull away in terms of accuracy. Much greater strat resolution.

[Froze were the Days]

1 minute ago, Eskimo said:

Anyone for a Bartlett?


 

Yeah the GFS 12z has been forgotten about...I wonder why? Makes far less of the GHP at around D9 and then becomes an Atlantic train but  just another permutation amongst others post 144z I guess.

[Kasim Awan]

1 minute ago, Frosty Winter said:

If we get rain from -8C uppers I will honestly give up this hobby.

The SE will be under -5 to -7 uppers so it will be very marginal certainly in heavy ppn & during the 16 hour coldest uppers phase there would be a snow risk.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Another GFS operational that goes completely wrong, ignore FI

[ptow]

6 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Nationwide snow event next weekend from the GEM as that low slides south... 

Doesn’t that show rain for most of England?

[Battleground Snow]

Short ensembles,

Can we just squeeze out a 24 hour period of -9 or -10. Not out of the question.

 

[Radiating Dendrite]

1 minute ago, Tim Bland said:

Are you referring to the text on metoffice website? That was written before 12z runs came out? 

Yes, but the 12z are not radically different in terms of uppers. 

It rained here today. I'm just not super confident that is all.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

only looked at UKMO at this stage......BEAUTIFUL!

 

BFTP

[Tim Bland]

6 minutes ago, Radiating Dendrite said:

Yes, but the 12z are not radically different in terms of uppers. 

It rained here today. I'm just not super confident that is all.

It rained in most places this afternoon as the DP was 2c from late morning and the uppers were -3 / -4c in most areas - that was always going to be the case looking at the models for today. If that UKMO came off it would not be rain under -8c uppers and a flow north of east leading to lower DPs,  It would be mainly dry further north where pressure is higher though 

Edited January 1, 2021 by Tim Bland

[MP-R]

2 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

It rained in most places today as the DP was 2c from late morning, that was always going to be the case looking at the models for today. If that UKMO came off it would not be rain under -8c uppers and a flow north of east leading to lower DPs,  It would be mainly dry further north where pressure is higher though 

It rained here with a temperature of -1C here earlier so I wouldn't discount anything.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

20 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Not yet... waiting for the right moment..

I think ECM will produce it at t240....UKMO would if it continued

 

BFTP