Model output discussion - Into 2021

[winterof79]

4 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

Do we think GFS // is showing the relaxation of cold mid month or has it just got lucky

Having looked at the mean I'm now doubting the relaxation of the North Pacific monster low on the //

[A Frayed Knot]

Let's hope so. Its nice to look at. 

[northwestsnow]

5 minutes ago, Thinon said:

Yes and many amateur forecasters often overlook the fact that the easterly air flow will likely warm up at the surface as it crosses the North Sea before reaching the UK despite the uppers seeming to be low enough, hence the Meto going with the rather underwhelming but sadly very justified marginal outlook 

Most of us know its marginal...as long as its the right ( or white side) its all good!

Edited January 1, 2021 by northwestsnow

[joggs]

18 minutes ago, Snowmut said:

Thats a bugger, Ive just moved to Barclays!

On a serious note remember the North Sea cools at a rapid rate this time of the year, Thats when the North Sea turns into a snow machine, and with the setup we have its only a matter of time before the fun and games begin!

Sorry but that's misleading. It's the upper air that that needs to be -10 or lower for the north sea to become a snow mch. And the warmer the sea is under lower upper air temps, the better for heavier falls. The greater difference in temps=more energy.

Edited January 1, 2021 by joggs

[Mike Poole]

Got to laugh at the models sometimes, GFS ends with the mother of all northerlies at T384:

Good set of runs, I’m late to the party today.  GFS // early evolution looks excellent.  I do think that there might be a temporary wobble in the promising output in the week after the SSW kicks in, because it will change things, but eventually in a way that is beneficial re UK cold.  Fascinating period of model watching.  Reminds me of late winter 2018, on the one hand viewing day by day, but at the same time seeing the longer term story unfold...

[Team Jo]

Evening folks, just a gentle reminder that we  don’t want you tearing each other down, even if, like me, you are miserable and hungover.

thanks!

[moorlander]

HOLD TIGHT every one.

It's  a roller coaster ride.

[ancientsolar]

What are the chances we'll be discussing a similar output in 24hours ? Given the volatility of the last 24 hours ? 

[Kasim Awan]

ECM will be a corker I think

[winterof79]

11 minutes ago, A Frayed Knot said:

Let's hope so. Its nice to look at. 

Alas,I am "afraid knot"

Edited January 1, 2021 by winterof79

[danm]

1 hour ago, Eskimo said:

Anyone for a Bartlett?


 

A quick thaw of frozen pipes before the next freeze arrives, all good

[Guest]

Just now, joggs said:

Sorry but that's misleading. It's the upper air that that needs to be -10 or lower for the north sea to become a snow much. And the warmer the sea is under lower upper air temps, the better for heavier falls. The greater difference in temps=more energy.

Living on the East coast for 50 years we've had many a time at -5 to -6 uppers especially as winter progresses and sea is cold enough to give us a dumping! ...When the north wind blow we shall have snow!

[Frostbite1980]

Anyone else excited about what the ECM may show?

[ancientsolar]

Just now, Frostbite1980 said:

Anyone else excited about what the ECM may show?

how long till we see it ? 

[Gregulator]

Just now, Frostbite1980 said:

Anyone else excited about what the ECM may show?

Always, I love the 6pm watershed on here.

[SMU]

 

Just now, Frostbite1980 said:

Anyone else excited about what the ECM may show?

I forecast a reduction in strength of the northerlt plunge & associated low & increase in force form the East under the nose of high pressure over Scandi....

[Don]

Just now, Frostbite1980 said:

Anyone else excited about what the ECM may show?

No, I maybe excited once it's rolled out though! 

[Notty]

Just now, ancientsolar said:

how long till we see it ? 

Just started

[Frostbite1980]

4 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

 

I forecast a reduction in strength of the northerlt plunge & associated low & increase in force form the East under the nose of high pressure over Scandi....

From the low over Iceland diving North to South? 

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

2 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

 

I forecast a reduction in strength of the northerlt plunge & associated low & increase in force form the East under the nose of high pressure over Scandi....

Careful Steve, you’ll get someone ‘demanding’ to know if you have a crystal ball!!  

 

BFTP

[UKSupercell]

Evening all, and a Happy New Year to you! 

I have been lurking on this thread (and the previous version) for the last couple days or so, viewing the different model outcomes and peoples' analyses and predictions with great interest (albeit limited knowledge!) I usually only visit netweather forum during the summer for storm events but also sometimes in the winter with the pending threats of snowfall. 

Question: Where are people getting all these models from, what websites? Very curious and interested to learn more. I understand pressure charts, fronts, convection etc to some extent, but knowledge is nonetheless limited! Cheers

[SMU]

1 minute ago, Frostbite1980 said:

From the low over Iceland diving North to South? 

yes - more like sheared energy moving south as opposed to a big low pressure.

[sheikhy]

Just now, Steve Murr said:

yes - more like sheared energy moving south as opposed to a big low pressure.

Ecm looking kinky at 48 hours!!?

[Kiwi]

3 minutes ago, Don said:

No, I maybe excited once it's rolled out though! 

At least atlantic systems shouldn't throw a spanner in the works!

 

[Frostbite1980]

2 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

yes - more like sheared energy moving south as opposed to a big low pressure.

So more elongated rather than a dartboard low? Thanks for replying