Model output discussion - Into 2021

[rug]

10 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

Southwest members are going to be gutted!

Great run overall though

Already crying into my beer......

[winterof79]

2 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Just waiting for WX charts to update

Interesting to see how far south the snow is on the eastern flank

Maybe some imaginary 20-30cm snow depths by then

[Mapantz]

7 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

Southwest members are going to be gutted!

I seem to remember something like that being said around the 21st February 2018. 7 days later, an amber warning and 9 inches of snow down here.

Moral of the story? Not wise to assume certain areas will be "gutted" with how volatile the output is.

[SMU]

1 minute ago, winterof79 said:

00z...

[UKSupercell]

4 minutes ago, That ECM said:

We are drawing them.

So you're the resident comedian here eh? 

3 minutes ago, Speedbird said:

meteociel.fr

 

2 minutes ago, Cloud 10 said:

WWW.METEOCIEL.FR

---

Meteociel propose le modèle deterministe de ECMWF CEP

 

Cheers guys 

[winterof79]

1 minute ago, Steve Murr said:

00z...

Yes just noticed Steve. 

Edited January 1, 2021 by winterof79

[Scott Ingham]

2 minutes ago, MKN said:

Surely more concerning regards to the ECM 12z is the lack of snow long before that. +48 to +120 there is very little. 

The ecm precipitaion charts (especially in convective set ups are shocking) 

Dont fret till you see higher res models

[Tim Bland]

This is final frame of ECM. It won’t show final snow depths as it’s still going at the end. Would need to see day 11 for the big numbers

[booferking]

5 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Just waiting for WX charts to update

Interesting to see how far south the snow is on the eastern flank

Maybe some imaginary 20-30cm snow depths by then

Torrential rain for most of the south.

[booferking]

7 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Just waiting for WX charts to update

Interesting to see how far south the snow is on the eastern flank

Maybe some imaginary 20-30cm snow depths by then

Torrential rain for most of the south.

[Speedbird]

Just now, booferking said:

Torrential rain for most of the south.

There's likely to be corrections south 

We're still in the game

[SLEETY]

ecm charts never verify at day 10 anyway,could be showing raging blizzards over the whole country and be best to ignore it,its very poor as would be expected at that range.

[Battleground Snow]

4 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

I seem to remember something like that being said around the 21st February 2018. 7 days later, an amber warning and 9 inches of snow down here.

Moral of the story? Not wise to assume certain areas will be "gutted" with how volatile the output is.

At 240 it's just for fun of course, but now you've pointed that out I hope you get cold rain! 

[Bald Eagle]

20 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Snowstorm for Wales / Midlands at 240...

Of course there will be..its 10 days away 

Edited January 1, 2021 by Bald Eagle
Bad spelling

[Tim Bland]

There’s an area of snow heading south east ahead of the main front ...

[booferking]

Just now, Speedbird said:

There's likely to be corrections south 

We're still in the game

10 days out that will end up in spain

[Anthony Burden]

Marco Patanga on Twitter just stated major SSW to take place in next week or so prolonged 

easterly ie beast from the east on it’s way,only short temperature pick if any.

[Tim Bland]

Edited January 1, 2021 by Tim Bland

[I remember Atlantic 252]

FI around 120, guarantee EC 00Z at 240, will look nothing like that! hope still cold though

[Kasim Awan]

11 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:

Best run of the winter for me.

No energy left in america. Easterlies soon to kick in after.

Cold pool UK eastwards will only stagnate and get colder and colder.

If the vortex does get chucked over the north sea the extra energy will only create more snowfall before the coldest period of winter end of january and february (signposted since the 3rd of December) kickd in

It is a corker not just from a perspective of surface conditions but also sensibility regarding dealing of all factors. The mobile influence, Greenland high & easterly influence. All somewhat influential in developing the upcoming pattern with a substantially stronger influence from the NE quadrant.

This pattern is absolutely loaded with snow potential.

[iceman1991]

3 minutes ago, booferking said:

Torrential rain for most of the south.

Like what mettoffice said on there update then 

[bobbydog]

4 minutes ago, booferking said:

Torrential rain for most of the south.

Before the low slides south and east, dragging in much colder air from the north and east....

[winterof79]

4 minutes ago, booferking said:

Torrential rain for most of the south.

Love it most of the south? 

[radiohead]

The agony and the ecstasy....

[Scott Ingham]

1 minute ago, Kasim Awan said:

It is a corker not just from a perspective of surface conditions but also sensibility regarding dealing of all factors. The mobile influence, Greenland high & easterly influence. All somewhat influential in developing the upcoming pattern with a substantially stronger influence from the NE quadrant.

This pattern is absolutely loaded with snow potential.

Agreed and i hope we gather some momentum of this stronger influence from the North East.

Its a dream of a run for our neck of the woods but longer term would iron out that milder blip into a snowy blip as you say