Model output discussion - Into 2021

[Harsh Climate]

2 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:

It shows the potential for a chunk of the vortex to be shoved towards the UK via an arctic building high caused by the ssw and in the wrong set up could produce something like that if its sent too far west over the atlantic. But if greenland heights are being under played here this will be pushed into europe and only serve as an opportunity to cool down western europe and top up our cold pool to prolong this spell.

Im not convinced there will be a milder spell yet 

Especially not like that but its too far out to even know!

 

 Like you, I can't see any signs of a mild spell, but I think there may be a mild blip in the lead up to something special mid january.

Edited January 1, 2021 by Harsh Climate

[sheikhy]

Dead in here!!my god!!that was something

[Daniel*]

2 minutes ago, Harsh Climate said:

Not many comments on 144H ECM, think most people me included not sure what to make of it!

Speechless maybe? It looks brilliant all that very cold air nearby.

[TSNWK]

big difference at 144 from this mornings 168.. if that low above Norway does drop would be a decent easterly.. frankly though Im bewildered what 168 will be

[Tim Bland]

Looks a bit knife edge to me that low didn’t go south it went east

[Harsh Climate]

Ah were ok guys  168 hours looks good! 

 

 

Edited January 1, 2021 by Harsh Climate

[chionomaniac]

1 minute ago, sheikhy said:

Dead in here!!my god!!that was something

Don’t know why looks like ECM about to deliver a potent northerly

[Battleground Snow]

2 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Dead in here!!my god!!that was something

Should drop, but it's making a meal of it

168

 

Edited January 1, 2021 by Battleground Snow

[snowice]

1 minute ago, Daniel* said:

Speechless maybe? It looks brilliant all that very cold air nearby.

Looks like easterly is coming.

[Tim Bland]

Phew  

[Notty]

ECM looks better at T+168 but that isnt a reliable range at the moment.

[SMU]

As said its not going to drop....

Look at the nose...

Look south for the squeeze up for energy flushing the continental cold WSW

 

Edited January 1, 2021 by Steve Murr

[Johnp]

2 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

Speechless maybe? It looks brilliant all that very cold air nearby.

I'm underwhelmed by the long term prospects though - by 168hrs it looks as though it may topple.  I'm greedy - I want this to run and run!

[sheikhy]

Nothing wrong with ecm so far!!i actually like it!!big 192 hour chart!!

[chionomaniac]

Easterly cold pool. Northerly cold pool.  Take your pick.

[winterof79]

13 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

-10c 

Wheres it heading!??

Not where you indicated....... today... but who knows tomorrow? 

[TSNWK]

Just now, Steve Murr said:

As said its going to drop....

Look at the nose...

Look south for the squeeze up for energy flushing the continental cold WSW

 

Nice looking chart and looks better there than north hemisphere view.. that has to be cold at surface with low dew points coming from a cold continental setup..

[snowice]

Just now, chionomaniac said:

Easterly cold pool. Northerly cold pool.  Take your pick.

Like a game of chess !

[Harsh Climate]

I think this run is good simply by the fact the low doesn't drop south too quickly ( if at all) as others have alluded to any delay is a good thing 

[Kasim Awan]

Nothing at all wrong with the ECM.

[Tim Bland]

Eyeing up the purple blob to our north..come to papa ...

[Man With Beard]

1 minute ago, chionomaniac said:

Easterly cold pool. Northerly cold pool.  Take your pick.

Exactly. We go cold whichever way it turns out.

Excellent example between T120 and T168 of how quickly things can cool down to the east in these conditions - look at how those uppers turn 

 

[Scott Ingham]

7 minutes ago, Harsh Climate said:

 

 Like you, I can't see any signs of a mild spell, but I think there may be a mild blip in the lead up to something special mid january.

Im not sure i hope im wrong but i can only see the mild blip being a jump from 0 drgree average to 2 degree average days at best. 

For me the models are over reacting to a move into 3/4 of the mjo and other factors will over ride this in my opinion 

[winterof79]

3 minutes ago, chionomaniac said:

Easterly cold pool. Northerly cold pool.  Take your pick.

Which ever is more sustainable 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Way hay...look at ECM 192...Absolutely no Vortex over Canada or Greenland..ladies and Gentlemen....the vortex as left the building...any further East and it will be leaving the chart...Absolutely love these synoptics.