Model output discussion - Into 2021

[ICE COLD]

Just gonna add GEM into the mix T120

[winterof79]

7 minutes ago, Mucka said:

It is already toppling.

Maybe not our usual Winter toppler but enough for it to cut off any Arctic/continental feed. 

Just didn't look to be cutting off the arctic feed. Only my interpretation so no worries.

Edited January 1, 2021 by winterof79

[Tim Bland]

Easterly 2.0 incoming ...

Edited January 1, 2021 by Tim Bland

[Griff]

-12 tease, I should have moved to Norway.. 

Para

[Doctor96]

surely west Europe looking colder and we are about to pull it is n 

[Griff]

Shoot me down, but something akin to an omega  

 

Edited January 1, 2021 by Griff

[Matt H]

Parallel run is a stonker, no messing around here!

Edited January 1, 2021 by Frosty Winter

[ICE COLD]

Gem drops the low 

[TSNWK]

Overall a pretty decent start to 12z

Both UKM and gfs have maintained the theme of colders ups for next weeks easterly, Broadly speaking we are looking at -7 and 8s when a couple of days ago it was -5 and 6s. Can we just eeeke another point out to be safe...

longer term to about 220 which is as far as I dare go. We maintain the trough dropping down without  becoming stuck as per last nights ECM, which was a worry as it could have changed the whole balance for at least a week if that had continued.. I note that this mornings ecm also dropped that horrid idea.

here’s hoping for a further notch down on mean and a decent ecm

Edited January 1, 2021 by TSNWK

[Griff]

Para 192 ❄ brrrrrr

[Mucka]

Just now, winterof79 said:

Just didn't look to be cutting off the arctic feed. Only my interpretation so no worries.

Yes it is just interpretation of where the charts would go from there

But It isn't cutting off the N flow at 144 because the high hasn't been forced E over us yet and we are in the last throws of the N feed.

As I say low pressure developing to our S would be the only thing preventing it toppling E as the undercut in the Atlantic isn't there but I can't say what would happen upstream or whether it would reamplify and all academic as always as will change next run.

But the principle is that the low dropping S and not going E/NE will much more likely allow us to say in a cold feed and the pattern more amplified as it prevents prevents the forcing SE of the pattern and we also maintain high pressure close to E/NE which can only help longer term.

[Guest]

 

Boy blast thas Boootifull !.......As we say around here!

[Tim Bland]

Very similar synoptically the GFs and GFSp main difference is on the Para the low slips south to the west and the subsequent Easterly is stinger. GFS is snowier in the shorter term, GFSp delivers in the end with a powerful easterly... Win Win ? ️

[Griff]

What's the B word? @Steve Murr

[booferking]

5 minutes ago, Griff said:

Shoot me down, but something akin to an omega  

 

Just knew it was going to be a cracker as early on as 120hr.

Run of the winter so far in my eyes

Edited January 1, 2021 by booferking

[Harsh Climate]

Even the toppler seems to be very slow in pushing in and might fail, rather than the gfs having the atlantic steam roll through which it normally like to do.

 

Side note, anyone know why Fergie weather doesn't post on here anymore? Miss his professional view on the models and little hints of what the bbc/met are thinking lol

[snowice]

4 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

Gem drops the low 

Times like this you wish the ukmo went past 144hrs.

[seabreeze86]

What a chart this is from the new GFS, going to be some big up and downs in the next 48 hours while the models try and resolve what they going to do with the low dropping south 

[Ice Day]

Para is going all in at 204.  Cracking run this

  

[ICE COLD]

I’m starting to like the new gfs

[BARRY]

1 minute ago, Griff said:

What's the B word? @Steve Murr

Not quite there yet but not far off

[sheikhy]

Gfs para is exactly you would expect the models to show with all the background signals!!!does the normal show any snow from the north sea next week?

[Harsh Climate]

Just now, Ice Day said:

Para is going all in at 204.  Cracking run this

  

Could ya imagine if that was the control run, this place would have gone into melt down. Just shows the gfs control run isn't the be all and end all.

[Drifter]

The para is just beautiful and is the evolution we need for a proper prolonged cold spell. 

[Griff]

1 minute ago, ICE COLD said:

I’m starting to like the new gfs

Yeah she's a GEM... Oh you know what I mean...