Model output discussion - Into 2021

[Mucka]

GFS at least splitting the energy at 120 (still too much going NE), UKMO still a bit of a fail with the trough pushing up from the SE winning the race and so the low to our N pushes NE instead of undercutting/dropping S

 

 

Edited January 1, 2021 by Mucka

[ICE COLD]

UKMO 120 uppers 

[Matt H]

UKMO 12z uppers for next week also look pretty good. Those BBC forecasts of a mild easterly are going to age like milk.

 

 

 

Edited January 1, 2021 by Frosty Winter

[Battleground Snow]

5 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

GFS ever so slowly over 24 hours has crept to the UKMO kink, as a result the milder pulse has receded

Also as a result of the northward movement of the kink in Europe ( East ) the angle of CAA over the UK has been moving the coldest uppers south.

If we look at 12z V 06z it's noticable 

But now compare just 24 hours ago

l

 

Those small increments result in a 3-4 degree drop in the SE... 

We also see this pool more widespread for monday eve > With such an expanse of -8c & the map set at 2 degree increments the likleyhood is there -9c in the middle!

 

As we progress 108 is much colder as well !

 

UKMO is great much better than 00z but 144 is 9/10 not 10/10 as we need the atlantic high with no positive tilt at all...

 

Thanks

Great work again Steve on the small changes at close range. Really helps.

I would give GFS a 9.5 at 144? Would you agree?

 

[Drifter]

10 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

UKMO 144

Not that good imo - won’t the ridge now start sinking?

[Man With Beard]

Hello -20C uppers to the north

Headed our way?

[ICE COLD]

2 minutes ago, Drifter said:

Not that good imo - won’t the ridge now start sinking?

I just thought it was better than the 00z run . Let’s see where ECM goes?

[Mucka]

5 minutes ago, Drifter said:

Not that good imo - won’t the ridge now start sinking?

Yeah not great for long term prospects as the high would likely topple over the UK.

Need the low to drop into the Atlantic 120/144 not push NE toward Scandi to keep the pattern more amplified.

We really want the trough from the N to win the race and the one  pushing in from the SE to be held back for better long term prospects.

Edited January 1, 2021 by Mucka

[booferking]

Cracking para run coming up.

Edited January 1, 2021 by booferking

[Griff]

I appreciate that I'm becoming obsessed, but I'm a fan of the GFSP... 

@booferking ahead of me there! 

 

 

Edited January 1, 2021 by Griff

[MATTWOLVES 3]

The only problem with the Beeb is,they seem to issue forecasts on the back of data a fair few hour old..and the met seem to need several days just to think about it where as you guys go in for the kill and pull know punches...love it long time

UKMO is a cracker very cold uppers in the equation now...its a New Year and time for the 1st boom....and I reckon many more will be coming in the next few weeks...

[Mucka]

1 minute ago, booferking said:

Cracking para run coming up.

 

A little bit E but dropping the low S unlike the Op and UKMO still so gets my vote

[sheikhy]

Ukml fantastic cold and snow at times throughout!!para so far is just lovely to look at!!colder 850s on the 12z between 126 and 138 hours for my part of the world!!only a degree colder but every little bit counts!

[SMU]

7 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

Great work again Steve on the small changes at close range. Really helps.

I would give GFS a 9.5 at 144? Would you agree?

 

Well I would give it 7 only because the low advances to far west for widespread lowland snow over England > need a bit more restricted track like UKMO

Now ive seen UKMO uppers im more happy with its solution...

[Battleground Snow]

1 minute ago, booferking said:

Cracking para run coming up.

Looks the quickest and least messy solution, hope to see ECM do this later.  138 looks fantastic. 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Great to see GFS go towards UKMO, further SE with the setup, mild sector much less/if at all

[winterof79]

Can't see that as being a toppler

[Jason M]

Given the differences between ICON, GFS, Meto at day 6, I'd treat any longer term output with a truck load of salt. Which is fine, because after last winter we have lots of salt to spare .

One thing is clear though and has been since yesterday and that is the fact that this little low pressure system that 'might' bring rain to England will only ever be rain as it has too much warm air wrapped up in it. The reason I say 'might' bring though is because I suspect it will be further south nearer the time so for me its a massive 'if' as to whether it happens. If it stays south we presumably stay in colder air and snow showers remain possible.

[TSNWK]

1 minute ago, winterof79 said:

Can't see that as being a toppler

Hello why not?  and to @Mucka interested to understand why you might more minded that it could sink

[Tim Bland]

Both GFS runs looking good for that low to drop in the mid term..how far is the next question...

[Mucka]

6 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

Can't see that as being a toppler

It is already toppling.

Maybe not our usual Winter toppler but enough for it to cut off any Arctic/continental feed from there in a couple of days and there would be no Scandi ridge to help out as the low it sends NE is blowing it away.

The only thing that could save it would LP developing to S of the trough over the UK

Edited January 1, 2021 by Mucka

[Griff]

Any arguments about Atlantic ridges vs Greenland blocks, or was that last week.. 

Para at 150

[snowice]

4 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

Can't see that as being a toppler

Hp looks like the cold ghost

[Man With Beard]

Too much uncertainty to call it after D6? Synoptically, yes. But look out for the ensembles in about an hour, as recent sets suggest there is less uncertainty about the UK staying cold.

[Tim Bland]

2 minutes ago, Mucka said:

It is already toppling.

Maybe not our usual Winter toppler but enough for it to cut off any Arctic/continental feed. 

Looks Like the low is sliding south keeping the ridge to our west