Model output discussion - Into 2021

[Battleground Snow]

More cold developing in situ to our North East at 87 v 93. 

 

[Frosty.]

Ok guys, I freely admit, I’m a bit thick..although I used to be an Architect for many years!..yeah, I put myself down, sell myself short.....and I’m autistic, not a great combo ( how the hell I got to have the most rep ( for a few more minutes!).. I will never know)?....BUT..I have noticed the ECM mean has trended colder compared to last evenings 12z?...or am I imagining it?..discuss...anyway, whatever, I’m not seeing a return to mild being the form horse..quite the opposite in fact!...ps..there’s some amazing contributions on here, it’s much better than when I joined in 2005..although, too me it seemed amazing back then..but now..it’s a whole new league..premier league actually! 

 

Edited January 1, 2021 by Jon Snow

[MKN]

2 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

More cold developing in situ to our North East at 87 v 93. 

 

Quite a significant difference there. Hopefully that's the trend from the 12zs

Edited January 1, 2021 by MKN

[Snowjokes92]

3 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

More cold developing in situ to our North East at 87 v 93. 

 

Only realising how close to something spetacular that chart is, im sure over time that deep cold over siberia has snuck ever closer?

[Battleground Snow]

At 120, much better heights into western Greenland... Will the pesky low drop or remain North?

 

 

[Battleground Snow]

1 minute ago, Snowjokes92 said:

Only realising how close to something spetacular that chart is, im sure over time that deep cold over siberia has snuck ever closer?

I think it is edging closer, it's great to chase FI boom charts, but what we have next week is very good compared to most years.

[Ali1977]

Big diffs on ICON at 136, latest run on top 

[Battleground Snow]

Just now, Ali1977 said:

Big diffs on ICON at 136, latest run on top 

It is dropping! Really hope Ukmo does this too.

[SMU]

Yes ICON ( otherwise known as I 'con' ) is quite a bit colder through the core times 80-120 from Europe all now to a weaker med finger

Kink wins the day

[TSNWK]

12 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

More cold developing in situ to our North East at 87 v 93. 

 

Nearly there... but is icon.. if ukm does it then I’m formally issuing a boom!

[Snowjokes92]

Just now, Battleground Snow said:

I think it is edging closer, it's great to chase FI boom charts, but what we have next week is very good compared to most years.

Well that main vortex is mostly over asia, as it has been for some time. Those uppers you posted look like they are trying to seep closer to the European doorstep. I guess this is what will most likely aid and enhance the uppers coming over from Scandi and northsea maybe.

It is indeed great to see such charts aftee last years horror show.  We should see small tweeks in the output over the next 24 to 48 hours. 

 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

So the output remains cold out to day 10..ECM mean signals this.

EXETER ALERT...colder conditions and snow look more probable towards end of Jan,after potentially a mid month mild blip...perhaps catering into account the impending SSW. lots going on then next week...perhaps snow risks for many and this more likely away from coasts...and perhaps some more wintry action towards the NW later next week,as this mornings UKMO shows.. Lots going on,but perhaps something more significant beyond mid month.

Edited January 1, 2021 by MATTWOLVES

[sheikhy]

12 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Big diffs on ICON at 136, latest run on top 

Im back!!!!looks like ecm!!!!

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Icon ending not to shabbily...And that cold pool towards the NE seems to have our name on it. The profile looks better for 850s than the other week.

[Ali1977]

Heights getting pulled out of Norway already by T90,  which may mean the GFS will follow the icon and send heights to Greeny earlier and drop that ridge down.

Edited January 1, 2021 by Ali1977

[saintkip]

3 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES said:

Icon ending not to shabbily...And that cold pool towards the NE seems to have our name on it. The profile looks better for 850s than the other week.

The 850’s deffo looking better to the east. Encouraging 

[ICE COLD]

UKMO 120 

[Eskimo]

Coastal areas seeing largely rain showers on Monday, but as they travel into drier air, they will likely turn to snow. Probably a very light covering on upland areas of central/northern England. 

A little colder air and nocturnal cooling through Monday night into Tuesday could possibly turn any rain showers to snow for most areas according to the GFS.



A trough in the flow on Tuesday could bring a heavier snow showers inland in the southeast. Usual caveats apply. 

 

 

[Harsh Climate]

Gfs 12 z just produced the first -9 upper on next weeks easterly over east anglia.

I really think the balance is shifting in favour of snow rather than sleet/rain monday to wednesday now! Each run has the uppers shading colder and colder. Be a -10 showing tomorrow, you watch

I think the met office are calling it wrong

Edited January 1, 2021 by Harsh Climate

[ICE COLD]

UKMO 144

[TSNWK]

Each run for past day has slowly improved the uppers over us and it is really heartening when you flip between current and previous run to see the reduction in that green blob of much over south Easter Europe.

[Battleground Snow]

Ukmo at 144... Maybe a little move to the ECM, but needs to go fully.

 

 

[SMU]

GFS ever so slowly over 24 hours has crept to the UKMO kink, as a result the milder pulse has receded

Also as a result of the northward movement of the kink in Europe ( East ) the angle of CAA over the UK has been moving the coldest uppers south.

If we look at 12z V 06z it's noticable 

But now compare just 24 hours ago

l

 

Those small increments result in a 3-4 degree drop in the SE... 

We also see this pool more widespread for monday eve > With such an expanse of -8c & the map set at 2 degree increments the likleyhood is there -9c in the middle!

 

As we progress 108 is much colder as well !

 

UKMO is great much better than 00z but 144 is 9/10 not 10/10 as we need the atlantic high with no positive tilt at all...

 

Thanks

Edited January 1, 2021 by Steve Murr

[Griff]

8 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Heights getting pulled out of Norway already by T90,  which may mean the GFS will follow the icon and send heights to Greeny earlier and drop that ridge down.

Likewise on the para... 

 

[Eskimo]

A smaller mild sector on the system travelling west will likely produce more snow for the UK. Higher areas clinging on to more of the snow before it changes over.

Edited January 1, 2021 by Eskimo