Model output discussion - Into 2021

[chionomaniac]

Love the cold air pool forming over mainland Europe in stagnant low height conditions. Beautiful.

[Allseasons-Si]

2 minutes ago, chionomaniac said:

Love the cold air pool forming over mainland Europe in stagnant low height conditions. Beautiful.

Yes and it looks like the easterly will win out here(as it stands).

Edited January 1, 2021 by Allseasons-si

[Battleground Snow]

1 minute ago, Griff said:

GFSP 132...

I like the way the para has consistently kept dragging energy further south and more robust heights into Greenland. Can it get one over on the ECM? At 132 hours one of them is going to have to backtrack soon

[Tim Bland]

ECM and GFS fairly similar at 192

[sorepaw1]

Happy New Year everyone 

Chart below could show the south something very white and Eastern parts. For next week. 

I think just about anywhere shouldn't be ruled out for a decent wintery spell.

It's certainly cold everywhere by night.

Still lying snow here picture taken at my holiday home in North Yorkshire. 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Look North...look East..Look West...it doesn't matter where you look we seem to have snow appearing on the graphics,both in the shorter term and the longer term...can't remember the last time I witnessed such action. I only hope DIY shops are not part of the shutdown,because many of us may need a shovel come the months end..This is not a Ramp,just the way I see it heading right now.

The futures Bright...the Futures White.....come onnnnnm.

Edit...@DjDazzle no stress...im dancing on the ceiling...ohhh what a feeling

Edited January 1, 2021 by MATTWOLVES

[Kasim Awan]

Next week is looking promising inland for sure, this applies to 4-5th:

Inland: Generally places above 300m have a full <0C profile aloft

120-300m have a narrow 0.5-1C layer with a risk of ice pellets & sleet in light showers though mostly snow above say 1.5mm/hr & half of the time under this intensity... so looking good..

Below 120m: DPs marginal during day, more expansive >0c layer here sleety mix possible though again any ppn above 1.5mm/hr will drive this down, with -8 uppers tho this area will be 95% snow.

Coast: Very marginal throughout & slightly less marginality 150-200m on coast - heavy ppn will bring snow down whether this reaches the coast is dependent on hitting -9 uppers or offshore wind... More moderation for Kent (it is hugged by the coast) so expect higher intensities required here.

This is actually quite good... given the gfs shows min -9.2 uppers now

Just a case of getting the precip in inland with the core of the low uppers late Monday, coast will always have complexities here. Applying the above to e.g. the gfs 18z, Pennines, low lying Yorks / EA, elevated inland Kent qualifies for 2-7cm..

Edited January 1, 2021 by Kasim Awan

[Griff]

GFSP says briefly milder 850s prelude to another omega? 

[Matt H]

Another very good parallel run so far out to t174.

Edited January 1, 2021 by Frosty Winter

[Griff]

GFSP incoming at 174

Edit: looks marginally slower to deliver but going to be worth the wait

Edited January 1, 2021 by Griff

[Battleground Snow]

1 minute ago, Griff said:

GFSP incoming at 174

Lovely chart - would sustain the cold for longer. It is a bit on its own with how it drops that low... Let's see what happens tomorrow.

[Scott Ingham]

14 minutes ago, chionomaniac said:

Love the cold air pool forming over mainland Europe in stagnant low height conditions. Beautiful.

Pre conditioning before full effects of a reverse flow. Perfect!

[Griff]

GFSP consistent, if not improves on previous run

Seems a while since 'west based -nao' was last said... 

Edited January 1, 2021 by Griff

[Battleground Snow]

I think the para has a better handle on things above.. the regular GFS looks a bit angry with the vortex, whereas the para has more heights popping up over the Arctic

 

[sheikhy]

The upgrades in 850s is quite something for this easterly!!we have gone from sleety mess to more of a snowy mess!!hopefully theres enough precipitation around!!

[bluearmy]

Gfsp NH profile day 9 is more what I’d expect to see than the gfs ref the vortex post ssw and slack lower strat flow ....

Edited January 1, 2021 by bluearmy

[feb1991blizzard]

Another flat GFS op, forget that potential brutal drop at the end of the GEFS now, it aint happening.

Need the strat to play ball but even thats slightly poorer at 270 on this run. The wheels are starting to fall off.

[IDO]

It does look like the solution to the d7-10 period will be rather messy compared to the ecm, that tends at that range to pinpoint a solution and give us a clean example. The timing and location of the nascent Arctic wedge around d8 will also cause issues, as we have seen in the past; the gfs is slower and less distinct with this feature by d10 compared to ecm, which is already directing traffic by then:

gfs d10> ecm>

Also, as we would expect at d10 the ecm is more blocked (usual bias?), which we cannot rule in or out in this instance due to the dynamics, but more runs before we could favour that blocking?

The trend is a flatter Atlantic sector post-d10 from the gfs ops, maybe a calm before a storm, and def a recurring possibility?

[Battleground Snow]

1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

Gfsp NH profile day 9 is more what I’d expect to see than the gfs ref the vortex post ssw and slack lower strat flow ....

Thanks BA - at least I am seeing the same things as a novice

[Griff]

Let's do this again tomorrow! Good night... 

[Guest]

Siberian Express is waiting to leave the station...Destination Blighty! Its all sitting there waiting!    This time next week charts are going to be very interesting

Ive got a very 1980's feeling about this winter...Might have to get me chopper out and take it for a burn! ( Chopper as in bike that is) just realised that last sentence could be read the wrong way!

!ECM

UKMO

GFS

[Kasim Awan]

Gfs 12z op for the bin I think -  dealing around Greenland is a bit suspect. Ecm is favoured here I think more SSW / EAMT data @scottingham?

[Eskimo]

WAIT, is that a...


 

[Allseasons-Si]

The gfs goes on one in fl and not supportive of the anomalies=bin

the parra fits in nicely,but we cannot discount the gfs as it has this trend showing up on the last few runs

awaits the gefs ens.

[Stu_London]

model output shows a high probability of below average to cold conditions in next 4-5days

given the strat events, would not bother looking beyond that for now.