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Model output discussion - Into 2021

Paul

By Paul
in Forecast Model Discussion

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Paul
Message added by Paul,

Please stick to discussing the model output in this thread. For more general chat , please use the winter/cold weather/snow chat, banter, moans and ramps thread. 

For local cold/snow and weather related chat, please head over to the Regional Area.

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fromey Experienced

fromey

Posted
  • Location: frome somerset 105m ABSL,
  • Weather Preferences: cold snow, thunderstorms
  • Location: frome somerset 105m ABSL,
Posted
Just now, Stu_London said:

model output shows a high probability of below average to cold conditions in next 4-5days

given the strat events, would not bother looking beyond that for now. 

It will be like pinning the tail on the donkey 

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ICE COLD Maestro

ICE COLD

Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW AND FREEZING TEMPS
  • Location: Hertfordshire
Posted
2 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Gfsp NH profile day 9 is more what I’d expect to see than the gfs ref the vortex post ssw and slack lower strat flow ....

Was just thinking surely the vortex shouldn’t look like this with what’s going on , looks like it’s just popped some steroids. 

F16B399D-A9C6-4ECE-8255-A81F2A7D8983.png

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Stu_London Rising Star

Stu_London

Posted
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells, Kent
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells, Kent
Posted (edited)
2 minutes ago, Skullzrulerz said:

The legendary Bartlett high

Bartlett would be a bit further east - but it still an horrific chart 

Very little chance of verifying, I suspect.

Edited by Stu_London
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Eskimo Accomplished

Eskimo

Posted
  • Location: Kings Norton, West Midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Kings Norton, West Midlands
Posted
2 minutes ago, Skullzrulerz said:

The legendary Bartlett high

Shhhh!!! 

I'm only teasing. The GFS 18z is utter trash.

image.thumb.png.e7c2da344dff8df7e7cf1911be319021.png
 

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Skullzrulerz Maestro

Skullzrulerz

Posted
  • Location: St Austell,Cornwall
  • Location: St Austell,Cornwall
Posted
2 minutes ago, Stu_London said:

Bartlett would be a bit further east - but it still an horrific chart 

Very little chance of verifying, I suspect.

Yes it doesn't have really any support at the moment let's hope it keeps it that way

Must of had too much to drink

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Scott Ingham Veteran

Scott Ingham

Posted
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
Posted
12 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Another flat GFS op, forget that potential brutal drop at the end of the GEFS now, it aint happening.

image.thumb.png.ef3edb8ad49fbfc1c225a6974c6e6ccb.png

Need the strat to play ball but even thats slightly poorer at 270 on this run. The wheels are starting to fall off.

Buddy with the westerly speeds in the upper and lower strat.... this run wants throwing in the bin! Id mortgage my house this wont happen!

That confident... but every run has its own idea and all that!

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Speedbird Community Regular

Speedbird

Posted
  • Location: Delnies, Nairn, Highlands (30m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and ice
  • Location: Delnies, Nairn, Highlands (30m asl)
Posted
5 minutes ago, Eskimo said:

Shhhh!!! 

I'm only teasing. The GFS 18z is utter trash.

image.thumb.png.e7c2da344dff8df7e7cf1911be319021.png
 

Yep definitely an outlier.

Will stand out like a sore thumb against the rest of the pack.

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Eskimo Accomplished

Eskimo

Posted
  • Location: Kings Norton, West Midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Kings Norton, West Midlands
Posted (edited)

Update on the snow front for Tomorrow afternoon/evening across the board. WRF & Harmonie probably the most keen on precip rates with ICON & Arpege wondering what the fuss is about. 

image.thumb.png.7ff1ed67b8305440f19a633ea58ba1fd.pngimage.thumb.png.9203d1ccdee4a85382518aaa4de753ff.pngimage.thumb.png.e4ad37c86c0eaa6a983d316a2e9c9fe3.pngimage.thumb.png.373c135344924ee3e1f94e0671bc0eec.pngimage.thumb.png.17549c3ef5dfd30e9ae0e389e3127719.pngimage.thumb.png.d9884f7cafeb9d3402e48e0363fc3865.png
 

Edited by Eskimo
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Scott Ingham Veteran

Scott Ingham

Posted
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
Posted
12 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

Gfs 12z op for the bin I think -  dealing around Greenland is a bit suspect. Ecm is favoured here I think more SSW / EAMT data @scottingham?

Bin it yeah!

Just no logic whatsoever to that outcome!

There will be another relaxation to AAM but there will be no westerly winds left in tje atmosohere at that time.

High pressure should be dominating the pole not what that run has just thrown out

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Purga Accomplished

Purga

Posted
  • Location: West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme cold & snow
  • Location: West Sussex
Posted
7 minutes ago, Stu_London said:

Bartlett would be a bit further east - but it still an horrific chart 

Very little chance of verifying, I suspect.

Like this maybe?

image.thumb.png.dd315e214809d27a3e929cd33b7a0ce9.png

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Scott Ingham Veteran

Scott Ingham

Posted
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
Posted
9 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

OOOh GFSP 240 Surface ridge over Scandi- We would take that in a heartbeat...

893D2E51-335B-4B66-9105-BD160E74DF2B.thumb.png.c6f990125522423c085c0cb03652727e.png

 

This is what id expect at this time frame. Polar highs and wedges. In what order/position etc? We dont know but the 18z jeez it couldnt be any further from what a profile look like at this point

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Stu_London Rising Star

Stu_London

Posted
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells, Kent
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells, Kent
Posted
Just now, Battleground Snow said:

Mean at 180 and short ensembles.

Would have taken this back in late November right if offered?

 

gensnh-31-1-180.png

gfs-coventry-gb-525n-15w (1).jpeg

FI starts 7th Jan, based on those ensembles. 

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danm Maestro

danm

Posted
  • Location: Home: Chingford, London (NE). Work: London (C)
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: cold and snowy. Summer: hot and sunny
  • Location: Home: Chingford, London (NE). Work: London (C)
Posted
20 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

 

The wheels are starting to fall off.

Is this a serious comment?

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Singularity Maestro

Singularity

Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
Posted

Something else caught my eye on the 18z - it develops the little low from the east more and as a result it wraps in more of the cold air, such that it not only brings more precipitation on Thu-Fri, but delivers most of that a snow away from the North Sea coasts.

Would be a classic ‘disturbance in the flow’ situation if it happened. As yet, ECM and UKMO make little of it... but we’ll see.

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Tom Jarvis Community Regular

Tom Jarvis

Posted
  • Location: Nutley, East Sussex 120m ASL
  • Location: Nutley, East Sussex 120m ASL
Posted

We know how poor the gfs is at splitting energy and undercutting lows. The control shows what we want to see and expect with the lows near Greenland disrupting underneath the block.   

image.png

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feb1991blizzard Maestro

feb1991blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Posted
1 minute ago, danm said:

Is this a serious comment?

The ensembles have gone much flatter towards mid month - desperately need either a split SSW (proper one) or very good displacement to the East with no residual energy left to the NW in the lower strat and trop.

10 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:

Buddy with the westerly speeds in the upper and lower strat.... this run wants throwing in the bin! Id mortgage my house this wont happen!

That confident... but every run has its own idea and all that!

Is this what you were more expecting.

image.thumb.png.9d69747959150775679e4f2e8e18ba55.png

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ICE COLD Maestro

ICE COLD

Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW AND FREEZING TEMPS
  • Location: Hertfordshire
Posted
26 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Another flat GFS op, forget that potential brutal drop at the end of the GEFS now, it aint happening.

image.thumb.png.ef3edb8ad49fbfc1c225a6974c6e6ccb.png

Need the strat to play ball but even thats slightly poorer at 270 on this run. The wheels are starting to fall off.

It actually ends with heights being sucked NW feb ?? 

E917A8CE-718E-4C6C-B94F-337854ED6263.png

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Scott Ingham Veteran

Scott Ingham

Posted
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
  • Popular Post
Posted
2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

The ensembles have gone much flatter towards mid month - desperately need either a split SSW (proper one) or very good displacement to the East with no residual energy left to the NW in the lower strat and trop.

Is this what you were more expecting.

image.thumb.png.9d69747959150775679e4f2e8e18ba55.png

Yes it is mate. 

I genuinely feel volatitlity is through the roof. There is so much going on that i feel its a case of sitting back and keeping a level head and staying true to your beliefs on what should be getting churned out

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