Scotland/Alba weather discussion - Jan 2021 onwards

[mountain shadow]

Looks like Scotland is going to get mullered next week, particularly the East coast.

Could be a memorable spell coming up.

[NUT]

Maybe this week is going to be the event that will deliver which you got to say has been threatning for a big one since Boxing day (that was the game changer for me) then possibly a bitter cold easterley to follow this whatever it be event..................exciting times coming up weather wise

[Penicuikblizzard]

Interesting charts for next Sunday could be some disruptive snow??

Edited January 30, 2021 by Penicuikblizzard

[LomondSnowstorm]

A slight dusting here overnight with slightly more back in Freuchie after the showers pepped up there later on in the night. Looks like a bit more pepping up in the Forth again, so while the modification near the coast is pretty bad we could still see a bit of snow further inland from these showers.

The 12Z runs so far from the GFS and UKMO continue to hold reasonably firm in keeping the -5C upper air temperatures in place for the most part, with this being the most dicey part:

Once again we see a very promising looking setup, particularly further inland and further north, with a lot of precipitation for the next week and the vast majority of it currently modelled as snow:

UKMO is fairly similar but I do have some concerns about the -8C line not quite managing to get as far south/west as we'd like for eastern parts:

 

 

It does get there by the end but we could do with the low moving a little further southeast than currently modelled - it's very much a knife edge situation. The reason for this is build up of heights over the Med and into Italy - this leaves the low to gradually fill and, in the better scenario we're seeing now, sink into Iberia. From seeing how these setups go previously, though, I suspect it's going to tip one way or the other a bit more decisively - either the heights to the southeast will clear a bit more, with something very very special as far as snow and cold goes for us, or the low ends up phasing with the next one over Southeast Greenland and we end up in a messy battleground setup again. I tend towards the former because we do seem to be seeing a bit more consistency with the vortex splitting over the Arctic and far less 'purple' over Greenland, and while this doesn't necessarily guarantee a smooth ride it does give you a very good chance of seeing the deep cold come our way by next weekend.

 

And I forgot to mention the best of the bunch - the GEM, which has consistently lived up to its name and delivered the most stonking output I've seen since March 2018:

through to:

It won't come off as cleanly as that, but if it did, you would be talking in feet rather than inches, easily...

 

Edited January 30, 2021 by LomondSnowstorm

[Eastern Scotland WX]

2 hours ago, JoeShmoe said:

The 06z GFS snow viewer has it snowing here from 0300 Tues to 1200 Fri 

The low res nature of the GFS means it struggles more with the moderation and resolution of the snow.

[blitzen]

Heavy shower ongoing here at the moment.   0.9c/0.0c. wind ENE.

[Cheggers]

Been out for wee road trip to catch the showers along the Forth. 

 

[Eastern Scotland WX]

Met office next Wednesday:

my reaction: oh please nope - still swearing off North sea.

[Eastern Scotland WX]

1 minute ago, MAXcrazystorm said:

Met office next Wednesday:

my reaction: oh please nope - still swearing off North sea.

Ignore that.

[blitzen]

16 minutes ago, MAXcrazystorm said:

Met office next Wednesday:

my reaction: oh please nope - still swearing off North sea.

That looks like a northerly to me.   Is it?   If not, then it's weird.

Edited January 30, 2021 by Blitzen

[Sceptical]

A cold night ahead. STV weather forecasting Braemar could hit minus 14C.

Met Office have yellow warnings out for snow on Wednesday.

Winter 2020/21 - Relentless.

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

P2 on the GEM ensembles another really close to getting the mega cold in   exciting times watching the models currently  

[Eastern Scotland WX]

43 minutes ago, Blitzen said:

That looks like a northerly to me.   Is it?   If not, then it's weird.

Very similar warnings to what we had the other day.

[Norrance]

1 hour ago, Blitzen said:

That looks like a northerly to me.   Is it?   If not, then it's weird.

Easterly but marginal. Snow away from coast and on hills.

[Spindrift2017]

Nae snaw in these parts at the moment, although the first pic below shows that there seemed to be something wintry falling over the Motherwell/Wishaw area when I was out for a walk earlier - from catching the edge of it there seemed to be some snow grains or graupel/soft hail.

A very pleasant, bright afternoon for a walk though.

[Allyw12]

8 minutes ago, Norrance said:

Easterly but marginal. Snow away from coast and on hills.

@Norrance I was really hoping it wasn’t going be marginal for once

[Penicuikblizzard]

52 minutes ago, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

P2 on the GEM ensembles another really close to getting the mega cold in   exciting times watching the models currently  

ECM has thrown a different solution into the mix unfortunately you cannot rule it out

[Norrance]

10 minutes ago, Allyw12 said:

@Norrance I was really hoping it wasn’t going be marginal for once

Maybe later in the week? 

[edo]

4 hours ago, JoeShmoe said:

what site / app is that from out of interest?

meteologix.com

[edo]

3 hours ago, mountain shadow said:

Looks like Scotland is going to get mullered next week, particularly the East coast.

Could be a memorable spell coming up.

Do you mean late next week into weekend or think this midweek, looks higher ground pummelling midweek unless some quick upgrades but fingers crossed.

[shuggee]

Noticed the temp was rising from -0.5°C to the heady heights of 0.3°C and lo and behold a ten minute light snow shower has made it this far west. 

As folk are saying about the upcoming week - exciting times. 

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

44 minutes ago, Penicuikblizzard said:

ECM has thrown a different solution into the mix unfortunately you cannot rule it out

Yes, I’ll be truthfully honest I rarely use the ecm nothing really against it just tend to think the gfs picks up possible trends of patterns better especially combining the GEFS and GEM ensembles and so far this winter I think the new upgrade of the GFS has been performing pretty well, for whatever reason the ecm doesn’t seem keen to develop the blocking as much but with the MJO phases I posted the charts in the model thread the other week it should be similar to that of the GFS and GEM. There will be plenty of changes from run to run as we are seeing at the minute but hopefully we get the snowy outcome we are searching for.

[JoeShmoe]

Just taken the dog out and the black ice is back , made it to the end of the street and came home !

[Cheggers]

Repaired pump, check

-2c, check

40c hot tub, check

[mountain shadow]

54 minutes ago, edo said:

Do you mean late next week into weekend or think this midweek, looks higher ground pummelling midweek unless some quick upgrades but fingers crossed.

Midweek onwards.