South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion Jan 2021 Onward

[wiltshire weather]

Out for a very chilly walk with the dog and hoping this will make it a snowy one too

[Nights King]

12z GFS sums up our chances quite well for monday 15th with a rain event. 

[chris55]

Long way off but GFS Operational setting that 'battleground' scenario once again.

12z is close to the kind of pattern we need to see in the SW for some proper snowfall.

This run not quite aligning all the pieces and the mild air pushes through, but the trend could be a good one if it can gain some support and back off the Atlantic a bit.

Seeing as this week looks very cold but without to much significant snowfall in our region (up to Friday anyway) something like the GFS is what we need to be looking out for going forward.

Edited February 8, 2021 by chris55

[AWD]

1 minute ago, Nights King said:

12z GFS sums up our chances quite well for monday 15th with a rain event. 

Snow to rain for some of us. 

I wouldn't worry though, by the time next Monday comes, the front will barely make it past Plymouth and we will still be cold and dry.  

[chris55]

5 minutes ago, Nights King said:

12z GFS sums up our chances quite well for monday 15th with a rain event. 

Well its not all rain, at least initially, and we have to think how these systems have been pushed back west repeatedly in the current set up. Though IF, and its a big if, the pattern sets up like the GFS 12z there is some chance at least of these fronts holding back way more than being shown on this evenings runs.

Edited February 8, 2021 by chris55

[DanDorsetUK]

Met office still seem quite confident of significant snow events this month so I'll put my faith into them rather than the models at the moment. Gloasea is probably seeing things a little different. 

[AWD]

6 minutes ago, chris55 said:

Well its not all rain, at least initially, and we have to think how these systems have been pushed back west repeatedly in the current set up. Though IF, and its a big if, the pattern sets up like the GFS 12z there is some chance at least of these fronts holding back way more than being shown on this evenings runs.

To be fair, and speculating a little here admittedly, but the GFS 12z isn't a million miles away from that Meto update I posted earlier, regarding the weekend into next week etc.

Fronts coming in from the SW, turning to snow and not making it into Central/Eastern UK.  Admittedly, this run does bring milder air into our region and take the fronts further east, but we all know the GFS is eager with the easterly extent of Atlantic frontal systems and these things almost always correct west nearer the time, like we have seen this week.  Remember the colder weather was supposed to finish on Thursday this week, then it went to Friday, then Saturday, now we are looking at Sunday for northern and eastern parts of the region.

Anyway, enough speculating over a single GFS Op run from me.  Cold and dry remains the form horse for most of us for the foreseeable, as it has been for a while now.  Will be interesting to see how high Res modelling handles any Atlantic incursions at the end of the week and into the weekend.

Edited February 8, 2021 by AWD

[Frosty hollows]

Flurries all day, but nothing settling. Chilterns mopping up best of the ppn

[Dorsetbred]

Is the A35 going to be the new M4 @Mapantz?

[Drifter]

Fax gives a chance for southern coastal counties on Wednesday night

[mattyj]

21 minutes ago, The Moving Planet said:

Met office still seem quite confident of significant snow events this month so I'll put my faith into them rather than the models at the moment. Gloasea is probably seeing things a little different. 

Hi is the BBC wrong for tomorrow has heavy snow symbols for a few hours I'm in ferndown Dorset thanks

[Shaftesburydelightski]

In from work and temperature a chilly -1.6c and snowing very lightly. Will have full cover by this time next week but at least it's snowing which is more than forecast.

Let's keep being positive - at least the days are getting longer!

 

ht!

[Lewesdon]

6 minutes ago, mattyj said:

Hi is the BBC wrong for tomorrow has heavy snow symbols for a few hours I'm in ferndown Dorset thanks

If It's BBC then don't be surprised when you wake up to two inches of luncheon meat.

 

[mattyj]

1 minute ago, Lewesdon said:

If It's BBC then don't be surprised when you wake up to two inches of luncheon meat.

 

[DanDorsetUK]

10 minutes ago, mattyj said:

Hi is the BBC wrong for tomorrow has heavy snow symbols for a few hours I'm in ferndown Dorset thanks

Yes were likely to see something tomorrow morning anytime from 3am onwards. There is a Steamer expected to push north through the region as the winds turn more eastily. Should Give a dusting if it comes off.

[SNOW CRYSTAL]

1 hour ago, gman88667733 said:

It has tried to very lightly snow a few time where I am right now. MO app has put a few more spells of snow tomorrow/Wednesday on there now, so who knows? I know the app isn't usually correct, but nice to see!

I'm on South Dartmoor, not a flake here. Even the washing on the line dried today in the sun

[Climate_Eyes]

4 minutes ago, mattyj said:

Thanks for the genuine laugh

[gman88667733]

6 minutes ago, SNOW CRYSTAL said:

I'm on South Dartmoor, not a flake here. Even the washing on the line dried today in the sun

Terrible, isn't it!

Holding out hope for Thursday/Friday!

[jtay]

59 minutes ago, CheesepuffScott said:

Something but it looks more like salt 

That's my mate Dave's car.

[CentralSouthernSnow]

33 minutes ago, Drifter said:

Fax gives a chance for southern coastal counties on Wednesday night

A chance for what

Edited February 8, 2021 by CentralSouthernSnow

[Kreftysoton]

Well the radar gave me hope 2/3 hrs ago as expected fizzling away to nothing as it travels south... shocking i see nothing for us now 

 

[*Stormforce~beka*]

Time for a shiny new thread yet? This is loooong!

[MagicOtter]

13 minutes ago, CentralSouthernSnow said:

A chance for what

Rain probably - cold, cold rain 

[SouthernSnowFan]

1 minute ago, MagicOtter said:

Rain probably - cold, cold rain 

It almost certainly wouldn't be rain if that did clip the southern coasts.

[Mapantz]

2 minutes ago, *Stormforce~beka* said:

Time for a shiny new thread yet? This is loooong!

Gimme 20 mins or so and I'll get a new one going!