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Model output discussion - Jan 3rd onwards

bluearmy

By bluearmy
in Forecast Model Discussion

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Paul
Message added by Paul,

Please stick to discussing the model output in this thread. For more general chat , please use the winter/cold weather/snow chat, banter, moans and ramps thread. 

For local cold/snow and weather related chat, please head over to the Regional Area.

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ICE COLD Maestro

ICE COLD

Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW AND FREEZING TEMPS
  • Location: Hertfordshire
Posted
9 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

What’s the odds that the ECM follows the GEM

4EF42D7E-53A4-43B4-9C7D-E65EC5E4E211.png

Yer they do seem to follow each other’s paths the last few months . Let’s hope so tonight . 

9FF486F3-BEF2-46E2-B339-57901E47F175.png

8CCFA462-E8A6-4F68-BF61-ED792F51B2B1.png

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Tim Bland Maestro

Tim Bland

Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
Posted
9 minutes ago, Jason M said:

If you look at the three charts that follow this, within 24 hours the cold air is headed away SE. Its a very short /sharp shock. 

True, it’s not the detail but the pattern that’s interesting... get a block over Greenland like that and a cold spell is never far away...

0AFC0635-8313-48F0-8939-F02033A21BAF.png

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That ECM Maestro

That ECM

Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
Posted

What are people’s thoughts wrt the heights to the ne of the low above Scotland? Each run they seem to gain in strength. TIA

B6FCC703-B5DD-45C6-925E-E8BC2A5FECC1.png

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Griff Veteran

Griff

Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
Posted
2 minutes ago, That ECM said:

What are people’s thoughts wrt the heights to the ne of the low above Scotland? Each run they seem to gain in strength. TIA

B6FCC703-B5DD-45C6-925E-E8BC2A5FECC1.png

I know what I'd like to see on the next frame, but I don't think it's likely (yet) 

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chris55 Accomplished

chris55

Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
Posted
1 hour ago, Vikos said:

cor_day5_HGT_P500_G2NHX.pngPara?

We need to remember these verification graphs are to day 5 only! (120)

imagine if all models only went to day five.....for one thing it’d be very boring in here , as we seem to spend most of our time on the 120-240 charts and then the GFS goes to 336.....

So IMO these charts haven’t got to much relevance in this thread. I understand if a model is correct at day 5 it’s more likely to be right at day 10, buts that’s not necessarily proven. 
 

Though saying that, the Para is looking like a decent model and to be taken alongside the UKMO and ECM as the GFS was.

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KTtom Experienced

KTtom

Posted
  • Location: Aberporth S W Wales
  • Location: Aberporth S W Wales
Posted

 A nice looking ecm with stronger heights due north with the trough drisrupting, the main possitive for me is there is absolutely no agreement at even day 6..

 

ECMOPEU12_144_1-3.png

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That ECM Maestro

That ECM

Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
Posted
1 minute ago, Griff said:

I know what I'd like to see on the next frame, but I don't think it's likely (yet) 

I was just wondering if it would slow the west to east movement and give better chance for heights to grow. Probably talking rubbish which is why I asked. Hoping someone might put me straight or agree. 

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TSNWK Maestro

TSNWK

Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
Posted
2 minutes ago, KTtom said:

 A nice looking ecm with stronger heights due north with the trough drisrupting, the main possitive for me is there is absolutely no agreement at even day 6..

 

ECMOPEU12_144_1-3.png

There is absolutely nothing wrong with that up top.. but those pesky heights over Spain... 

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Severe Siberian icy blast Experienced

Severe Siberian icy blast

Posted
  • Location: Wellseborne, Warwickshire
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking low pressure in winter. Hot and thundery in the summer
  • Location: Wellseborne, Warwickshire
Posted
7 minutes ago, Griff said:

Pleasantly surprised, holding on longer... 

ECH1-144 (1).gif

ECH0-144.gif

This screems snowy battles 

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northwestsnow Maestro

northwestsnow

Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
Posted (edited)
10 minutes ago, KTtom said:

 A nice looking ecm with stronger heights due north with the trough drisrupting, the main possitive for me is there is absolutely no agreement at even day 6..

 

ECMOPEU12_144_1-3.png

Damn if the pattern was just a few hundred miles south.

That Spanish high  can do one

Well,I wish it would.

Edited by northwestsnow
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Tim Bland Maestro

Tim Bland

Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
Posted
4 minutes ago, Griff said:

Getting closer...

ECH1-168.gif

Just need it to edge a bit further east and Bingo! Can’t be asking for much surely?! On my phone screen it’s only about a 3cm shift required in 5 days ??‍♂️

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Griff Veteran

Griff

Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
Posted
Just now, Tim Bland said:

Just need it to edge a bit further east and Bingo! Can’t be asking for much surely?! On my phone screen it’s only about a 3cm shift required in 5 days ??‍♂️

I'm happy with how things are going, it could be a lot worse, still time. 

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snowblind Community Regular

snowblind

Posted
  • Location: Coggeshall, Nr Colchester, Essex
  • Location: Coggeshall, Nr Colchester, Essex
Posted (edited)
6 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

EC battle on!

ECM0-144.GIF?07-0

A smidge further south west would be good.

Edited by snowblind
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chris55 Accomplished

chris55

Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
Posted

 Nice shift from ECM tonight.

In a normal year you’d expect the Azores/euro high to hold firm with systems running over the top. ECM pushing things south.

16158172-2DD9-4A8E-AF77-A10818C597AE.thumb.png.34b1763036631d930f8298ed8e385e4b.png

Then we get the potential for the ‘classic’ U.K. high begging pulled north to set up an easterly....

EB9D5B82-2906-45CB-9A0B-D3BE77A08DA6.thumb.png.80571a4981e8ec47b86aa6badb044911.png

who knows how it’ll pan out but a better run so far.

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Bradley in Kent Aficionado

Bradley in Kent

Posted
  • Location: Maidstone, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Anything below 0c or above 20c. Also love a good thunderstorm!
  • Location: Maidstone, Kent
Posted

It's that Azores / Iberian High which seems to prevent anything decent from happening in terms of cold.

Please do correct me if I'm wrong but it seems once a high pressure establishes itself in that part of the world it's very hard to shift what with lows pressure systems keeping it in shape and increasing sun strength?

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