Model output discussion - Jan 3rd onwards

[Vikos]

In a couple of minutes we will be rubbing our eyes, either with   or with  

I assume some changes to colder charts is on the menu

hf 

[Jason M]

11 minutes ago, Vikos said:

In a couple of minutes we will be rubbing our eyes, either with   or with  

I assume some changes to colder charts is on the menu

hf 

Unlikely, I'd have thought. The 06Z GEFS had all 30 plus control showing heights over Iberia at the 186 hours point. The 12Z Icon has the big red monster high sat over Spain at 180 hours. Based on these and almost every other chart I've seen today were back to looking beyond day 10. Next window would seem be 20th onwards as posted by others.

As always, I hope to be proved wrong over the next hour 

[frosty ground]

1 minute ago, Jason M said:

Unlikely, I'd have thought. The 06Z GEFS had all 30 plus control showing heights over Iberia at the 186 hours point. The 12Z Icon has the big red monster high sat over Spain at 180 hours. Based on these and almost every other chart I've seen today were back to looking beyond day 10. Next window would seem be 20th onwards as posted by others.

As always, I hope to be proved wrong over the next hour 

Not sure you will be proven wrong I think its a pretty realistic view of the current output.

[IDO]

For those missing out on their ICON fix, no idea why it has not been commented on, here we are!

 

[Djdazzle]

Took a bit of a break from posting on here, but still been looking.

Things do not look overly promising for cold in the mid term it seems.

[TSNWK]

Just now, Jason M said:

Unlikely, I'd have thought. The 06Z GEFS had all 30 plus control showing heights over Iberia at the 186 hours point. The 12Z Icon has the big red monster high sat over Spain at 180 hours. Based on these and almost every other chart I've seen today were back to looking beyond day 10. Next window would seem be 20th onwards as posted by others.

As always, I hope to be proved wrong over the next hour 

Agreed. I did scan icon but refused to post such turgid charts on this thread

[winterof79]

Cam on my san

[winterof79]

1 minute ago, IDO said:

For those missing out on their ICON fix, no idea why it has not been commented on, here we are!

 

Coz its crud?

[Jason M]

1 minute ago, TSNWK said:

Agreed. I did scan icon but refused to post such turgid charts on this thread

In truth, if it were not for the SSW and the fact that I'm honest enough to know I don't have the slightest clue if or when it will impact on things, I'd be getting concerned for prospects for a good few weeks right now. Some of the GEFS heights to our south were not looking transient to my eyes. There were much colder and better options in amongst them by day 10 but I don't like the trend.

[Vikos]

6 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

Agreed. I did scan icon but refused to post such turgid charts on this thread

I repeat my self by saying 

-Colder winters tend to have a "mild" phase around mid January, "warm" winters do it the opposite way and have cold spells then

-Inversion cold is underrated, west-drifts overrated by GFS

-short zonal periods are often a sign of significant changes in the NH-Patterns (in cold winters(

 

so around 20th if that russian low builds up over eastern eu cold is on its way downtown, as end of jan beginning of feb is normally the peak time for major frost from the east, for me it’s all in timeline

 

 

Edited January 7, 2021 by Vikos

[Mucka]

Interesting...

 

That is much more amplification than recently modelled and ECM this morning makes it doubly interesting

[TSNWK]

Just now, Jason M said:

In truth, if it were not for the SSW and the fact that I'm honest enough to know I don't have the slightest clue if or when it will impact on things, I'd be getting concerned for prospects for a good few weeks right now. Some of the GEFS heights to our south were not looking transient to my eyes. There were much colder and better options in amongst them by day 10 but I don't like the trend.

Agreed.. the only positives I can take past couple of days is uncertainty. 

Even met office were highlighting it for next week. 

[Vikos]

8 minutes ago, IDO said:

For those missing out on their ICON fix, no idea why it has not been commented on, here we are!

 

All in Schedule, low drops down western Russia, gate opener with high moving up to Scandinavia. Patience is eminent...

[ALL ABOARD]

Huge difference at 114??

 

[winterof79]

Not 3 bad at 114z more amplification

[swfc]

3 minutes ago, Mucka said:

Interesting...

 

That is much more amplification than recently modelled and ECM this morning makes it doubly interesting

Yes it is. The situation is evolving Mucka be it small increments. Time will tell but bringing in a ene flow wouldn't be a long drawn out job imo

[TSNWK]

UKM tried at 120 but went flatter at 144 be interesting if GFS can keep the amplification momentum going beyond 120ish

Edited January 7, 2021 by TSNWK

[That ECM]

T144 Ukmo not as interested as gfs. However more heights ne.

[winterof79]

UKMO differing ....surprise

[Vikos]

Gfs, mild gets delayed (once more). If it ever comes?

[winterof79]

GFS// Going for more amplification too

[That ECM]

I know someone who might be interested in this, @Scott Ingham

Edited January 7, 2021 by That ECM

[frosty ground]

That is a big difference

[mountain shadow]

1 minute ago, Vikos said:

Gfs, mild gets delayed (once more). If it ever comes?

You shouldn't be expecting cold until the last third of the month anyway. The UKMO only goes out to mid month.

[TSNWK]

Just now, That ECM said:

I know someone who might be interested in this, Scott.

Yep..about 400 mile switch west on the cold here. The green 0 was over south east England on this morning 138.