Model output discussion - Jan 3rd onwards

[Blessed Weather]

Looks to me like the SPV displacement is having an influence right down through the hPa layers by 14th January. Here's the height anomalies from this morning's GFS 0z run. Anomaly charts for 10, 50, 100 and 500hPa and lastly the 500hPa GPH/Pressure:

Strat chart from Hannah Attard: http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/hattard/realtime.php

 

Edited January 7, 2021 by Blessed Weather
Link to charts added.

[Mr Frost]

Morning all

Few Met Office/UKV snapshots for tomorrow - could be our last fairly widespread UK snowfall/wintry mix of this current cold spell. 

Friday 03:00

 

06:00

 

09:00

 

12:00

 

17:00

 

Good luck to you all! 

Edited January 7, 2021 by Mr Frost

[chris55]

1 hour ago, Severe Siberian icy blast said:

Morning guys and gals

A quick one on this feature from the North, its making its way south coming into nornern England this afternoon moving south into Midlands this evening petering out all the while, 

It's the one coming in behind this from the northeast that's getting my attention, and it's getting the attention of Carol too on BBC, very cagey but I'm old enough to spot a stand off approach which is down to uncertainty. 

I think this may be a secondary low developing a wave across the front!? 

I think it needs it watching for England and Wales tonight into tomorrow, 

Wondering what was the thoughts on this from the seniors?!! 

On the Metoffice App (next 24 hours) you can see the cold front come through followed by a circular occluded front into tomorrow. Looks to be decaying I think as there is no triple point (trowal position)...? Hence the potentially lighter ppn/uncertainty. 

[Notty]

8 minutes ago, chris55 said:

On the Metoffice App (next 24 hours) you can see the cold front come through followed by a circular occluded front into tomorrow. Looks to be decaying I think as there is no triple point (trowal position)...? Hence the potentially lighter ppn/uncertainty. 

Arpege has it decaying - https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/arpege.aspx?run=12&charthour=28&chartname=ukpreciptype&chartregion=uk-region&charttag=Precip type

[Griff]

58 minutes ago, That ECM said:

If you mean the snow possibilities then aptly named snowshill hill north Cotswolds is showing light snow from early tomorrow for about 6 hours.

That's a tease, isn't it? 

Thanks 

[Griff]

Definitely signs that change is afoot... 

[bluearmy]

It maybe rubbish but I’ve noted the 06z run (and 18z?) to be the flattest in the 5/10 day period last few days .....

[DanDorsetUK]

Much better SSW response from EC with a Possible split type showing on the 2nd warming. Better downwelling and slower recovery if you can even call it that. Things are going to get very exciting I'd say. 3rd SSW looking very interesting too!

More likelyhood of much colder conditions into NW-EU! 

[TSNWK]

2 minutes ago, Griff said:

Definitely signs that change is afoot... 

Looks heaps flatter than the 00z in out location.. so bad in fact I choose to stop viewing and trying to seeking solace in the paraelle.. and failing"........

[bluearmy]

Remember a couple, days ago when the gfs ops and ens consistently had a vortex lined up from Asia to n Canada at this timescale  .......

 

[sebastiaan1973]

2 minutes ago, Rapodo said:

Much better SSW response from EC with a Possible split type showing on the 2nd warming. Better downwelling and slower recovery if you can even call it that. Things are going to get very exciting I'd say. 3rd SSW looking very interesting too!

More likelyhood of much colder conditions into NW-EU! 

Problem is that one daugther vortex is placed in the Atlantic. Not a good position.

[chris55]

GFS 6z still going with some ppn/snow tomorrow... The North, Midlands and East Wales look prone. 

 

 

 

[chris55]

2 minutes ago, sebastiaan1973 said:

Problem is that one daugther vortex is placed in the Atlantic. Not a good position.

A wedge of high pressure in that gap could create the potential for some serious battle ground snowfall.

[Griff]

4 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

Looks heaps flatter than the 00z in out location.. so bad in fact I choose to stop viewing and trying to seeking solace in the paraelle.. and failing"........

Para seems fairly, consistent and there are striking differences in amplification depending on which runs are compared. 

 

[DanDorsetUK]

2 minutes ago, sebastiaan1973 said:

Problem is that one daugther vortex is placed in the Atlantic. Not a good position.

True, but I'd say that's got battle ground written all over it we are right in the middle. Would be unlikely to be warm. I'd favour the beast winning out but that's just my unbiased opinion of course.

[swfc]

Gfs 6z at the 200 hr mark looks very interesting if the 2 lows don't faze

[bluearmy]

6 minutes ago, sebastiaan1973 said:

Problem is that one daugther vortex is placed in the Atlantic. Not a good position.

The 10hpa will not imprint indetically onto the trop, even with a good link between strat and trop.  We could get a wintry trop set up from that upper strat picture 

[Griff]

This has got @Mike Poole Arctic high written all over it.

 

[IDO]

3 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Remember a couple, days ago when the gfs ops and ens consistently had a vortex lined up from Asia to n Canada at this timescale  .......

 

The Arctic high shape and position has allowed it to casually mix with wedges of heights injected to Greenland. This is effectively blocking the tPV at 500hPa:

That is a sort of catch-22 as less flow to our NW of the tPV the more wedges sent towards Greenland maintaining that pattern! By d8 it does look really primed for some sort of punch from the Tropics to really do damage to the trop and further warming to the strat. Where is the Rossby wave flow when you really need it?

[MATTWOLVES 3]

I've got a feeling many of you maybe posting some Snow pics tomorrow...just make sure you post it in the relevant threads..memoir to ones self who gets a tad over excited ECM 3 day res model brings that snow Southwards on Friday..could be some moderate falls in places..one to watch for sure.

Also Matt H saying he feels the 15-20the Jan looks the possible time we could flip cold again..with the NH still predisposed to Blocking..lots going on then..and be lamp post ready folks..

[Griff]

3 minutes ago, swfc said:

Gfs 6z at the 200 hr mark looks very interesting if the 2 lows don't faze

Your money is on Greenland high? 

[TSNWK]

3 minutes ago, swfc said:

Gfs 6z at the 200 hr mark looks very interesting if the 2 lows don't faze

I think they did if my understanding is correct

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

56 minutes ago, Mr Frost said:

Morning all

Few Met Office/UKV snapshots for tomorrow - could be our last fairly widespread UK snowfall/wintry mix of this current cold spell. 

Friday 03:00

 

06:00

 

09:00

 

12:00

 

17:00

 

Good luck to you all! 

So your saying even with uppers at - 5 in a frontal situation it's stil gonna be sleet mix, that's pathetic 

[Griff]

I'm growing old waiting for gfs 'potential' 

[Tim Bland]

It’s one of the rare scenarios where we need a bit of west to east momentum...