Model output discussion - Jan 3rd onwards

[Snowman.]

GFS lining it up here.

[ICE COLD]

Hmmm gfs looking better in the later stages 

[Nick F]

7 minutes ago, Griff said:

What's the latest ao and nao? Must be looking more negative again rather than trending back up? 

12z EC keeps them both -ve in the means

[Purga]

looking GOOD folks

[johnholmes]

2 hours ago, Scott Ingham said:

Is he not saying theyve changed for the better tho mushy if you read his first line

Read what I said Scott and please stop trying to twist what I said.

I am a scientist, with many years of making objective forecasts, regardless of what I may prefer to happen, that is what I do on here now. 

Words like better or worse are not really scientific and imply a preference on the writers part.

[Anthony Burden]

GFS pub run rubber stamping the high pressure next week and as I suggested before

in my view could ridge northwards  and make surprise charts pop up from no where.

As the ECM showed a day or so ago not convinced about next weeks temperatures 

in the south due to possible cold nights and frost also 850hpa temperatures would 

not be so crucial.

[Singularity]

The GFS 18z has added so much more amplified ridging in the North Atlantic for next week - several more distinct ridges now - it really knocks down confidence in how much low pressure there will be attempting to push across the UK, against attempted high latitude but ridge involvement.

[Griff]

I'm off to bed now but I bet the ECM, gfs, and gem at day 10 all look quite similar end of play today... 

[ICE COLD]

-20 in scandi with are name on it

[Notty]

GFS and GFS(P) and ECM showing nice HP slap bang in the middle of split vortex - in FI of course. Trends ...

[Tim Bland]

️

[Cloud 10]

18z GFS,the beast cometh........

 

[Kasim Awan]

Solid trends in the NWP today for the conditions required for the next surge of Mid Atlantic heights to occurr. This includes a weakening of the zonal flow, surging of ridge energy north and a strong wedge into Europe.

This also realistic given the SSW trough subsiding due, which produces a tendency for the Atlantic zonal flow to weaken considerably, and for heights to reemerge. The 12th-18th period needs to be watched closely here. 

Edited January 6, 2021 by Kasim Awan

[Nick F]

Pub run OP FI heading toward the Holy Grail ... but hits the buffers just short of all the UK

A good way to finish off a few days of conflicting views, opitimism of the SSW downwelling to work in our favour against the SSW work against us with the rumours that the current SSW has hallmarks of past ones that induce SWlies. Will the La Nina / MJO override any attempt from downwelling to bring colder and blocked. Many questions that will be answered over coming days ... but we see hints and teases in the models of what may we maybe in store for ...

 

Edited January 6, 2021 by Nick F

[Notty]

According to GFS 18z Op, in FI, the mother of all warm/cold battles coming up:

[Mike Poole]

GFS // T264 getting in on it ( and I thought it was more plausible in the early stages):

Only one way we are going from here, and that is cold. 

[feb1991blizzard]

17 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

I think the GFS 18z will actually end up trumping it - spectacularly.

So close yet so far, a trigger would have brought in the 87 redux, nearly run of the century!!

[ICE COLD]

So close to the really cold air . -13 into the east . 

[Kasim Awan]

3 minutes ago, Nick F said:

Pub run OP FI heading toward the Holy Grail ... but hits the buffers just short of all the UK

A good way to finish off a few days of conflicting views, opitimism of the SSW downwelling to work in our favour against the SSW work against us with the rumours that the current SSW has hallmarks of past ones that induce SWlies. Will the La Nina / MJO override any attempt from downwelling to bring colder and blocked. Many questions that will be answered over coming days ... but we see hints and teases in the models of what may we maybe in store for ...

 

I think the models have a fair middle ground for these conflicting signals, which is an extensive ridge from the Azores covering much of western Europe. A slight omega component to it with the associated risks.

[Tim Bland]

Another output which fits with the meto long range outlook....

[Catacol]

9 hours ago, PolarWarsaw said:

I can understand the disappointment with regards to what you had hoped would be the final outcome with this SSW mate, but otherwise please be absolutely nothing but positive. Anyone with the first clue on the weather knows you could line 1 million people up and ask them all to give an opinion on what is most likely to happen after an SSW happens and all of them would be varying levels of incorrect.

I think we should all just take a moment to sit back to reflect here and understand that the main art or the main aspect of an SSW is the original forecasting. I have to congratulate yourself @Scott Ingham @CreweCold @feb1991blizzard @chionomaniac amongst many others for a quite brilliant piece of forecasting, in terms of expecting and predicting an SSW to actually happen. Not only did virtually every professional on the net go for a mild, wet and Zonal driven winter with the Vortex covering the entire of Greenland for all of the winter but literally no models decided to even hint at an SSW until long after you guys first mentioned it. 

Not only did you all just say 'yes it could happen' - there was numerous examples of patterns and pre-cursory history that were demonstrated, well backed up and then have actually gone ahead. Some of these whilst people were still dusting the BBQ down in September! You all (and the others that I've forgotten and couldn't possibly list) have out-thought and out-performed models and companies worth hundreds of millions of pounds, if not billions - just by simple analysis and use of historic patterns 

Quite brilliant and we should all be thankful of having people with this calibre of ability and experience on our forum.

Regardless of whether some people can't decipher between use of the words 'can', 'might', or 'could' and may indeed send some criticism your way because it hasn't/won't lead to the next ice age, just ignore that. Some can't control their emotions even in the face of stark realistic facts. 

Well done!

That’s a very generous post PW - thank you. I’m still horrendously busy (started new job this week) and my lack of posting is not therefore because I’ve crawled into a hole in disappointment. I’ll have more time at the weekend to post again, and see what can be gleaned. And always positive....!

The short analysis at the moment is that the displacement gave us a less good outcome short term than we hoped, (snow hopers that is) and as has been pointed out by others we have falling AAM at the moment now and the GWO is in retreat. At moments like this I tend to wonder which is chicken and which is egg - but whatever the truth of the relationship between the tropics and the poles both have conspired to suppress the amplification that looked likely to continue at one stage. That 18z run of not too many days ago was a corker.

Where next is hard to say. The vortex has been hammered, but as Amy Butler (Strat Goddess) has pointed out - it has not been shredded. Our best case outcomes I always felt depended on a proper shredding - yet this story is far from over. We’ve had more forcing from the Ural High and Aleutian Low combo, and warming impacts are not done. Things are finely balanced, and while I’ve not had time to read the threads this week I can imagine there has been some gnashing of teeth, a bit of “I told you so” and a range of comments in between - and I genuinely think the outlook is up for grabs. I see no swift path back to zonal this month, I see distinct potential for downwelling impacts to override any flatter trop signal, there may even be a tropical signal for high lat blocking to emerge once again in Feb.... and yet I also see a path that could lead to more disappointment. Snow lovers in the U.K. are long suffering folk and due far more sympathy than those who find the U.K. summer uninspiring (always seems dry, hot and sunny to me but then I’m usually counting down the days to a cooler autumn!) and if we don’t manage at least one solid cold blast from this winter I think we will have been very unfortunate given the developments that we got in the build up to Xmas, developments that indeed were spotted by amateurs in the face of seasonal model zonality.

Holding pattern for now. Need to watch and wait particularly for damage to the vortex to become clear. We have had far worse winters that is for sure, and plenty of interest left in this one. We can never forget what happened in 2017/18 and indeed in our modern climate it might be worth remembering that our 2 most recent cold spells of note have occurred in March. And one year, surely before too many more pass, we must see a cold spell in February again. Back in the heady days of pre-CC Britain February often delivered the best snowfall.

Edited January 6, 2021 by Catacol

[Jason M]

5 minutes ago, Cloud 10 said:

18z GFS,the beast cometh........

 

Some deep cold air clipping into the E & SE for a 2-3 days is certainly possible with this pattern. The core of any cold will likely drop towards Greece though. Looking across the output tonight a UK high feels a good bet. Any heights look like they will be 'mid lat' at best rather than HLB. No real signal yet for stable heights to our north which would be needed for a full on beast. 

Certainly better than this time last year!

[Cheshire Freeze]

9 hours ago, PolarWarsaw said:

I can understand the disappointment with regards to what you had hoped would be the final outcome with this SSW mate, but otherwise please be absolutely nothing but positive. Anyone with the first clue on the weather knows you could line 1 million people up and ask them all to give an opinion on what is most likely to happen after an SSW happens and all of them would be varying levels of incorrect.

I think we should all just take a moment to sit back to reflect here and understand that the main art or the main aspect of an SSW is the original forecasting. I have to congratulate yourself @Scott Ingham @CreweCold @feb1991blizzard @chionomaniac amongst many others for a quite brilliant piece of forecasting, in terms of expecting and predicting an SSW to actually happen. Not only did virtually every professional on the net go for a mild, wet and Zonal driven winter with the Vortex covering the entire of Greenland for all of the winter but literally no models decided to even hint at an SSW until long after you guys first mentioned it. 

Not only did you all just say 'yes it could happen' - there was numerous examples of patterns and pre-cursory history that were demonstrated, well backed up and then have actually gone ahead. Some of these whilst people were still dusting the BBQ down in September! You all (and the others that I've forgotten and couldn't possibly list) have out-thought and out-performed models and companies worth hundreds of millions of pounds, if not billions - just by simple analysis and use of historic patterns 

Quite brilliant and we should all be thankful of having people with this calibre of ability and experience on our forum.

Regardless of whether some people can't decipher between use of the words 'can', 'might', or 'could' and may indeed send some criticism your way because it hasn't/won't lead to the next ice age, just ignore that. Some can't control their emotions even in the face of stark realistic facts. 

Well done!

Hi PW, thanks for the post- as @Catacol has said, very generous of you.

As I've said a couple of times, the signs were there back end of October and certainly through November. I remember Catacol and I having a discussion on the Russian blocking and noting how beneficial it would be for a SSW down the line.

[Man With Beard]

This was a close shave with a real "beast"

[Mike Poole]

Just now, Man Without Beard said:

This was a close shave with a real "beast"

Looks more like a turtle to me: