Model output discussion - Jan 3rd onwards

[Ols500]

2 minutes ago, Bristle boy said:

Looks dreadful. Thankfully, that chart is 2 weeks away, so wont happen, as shown.

How is that dreadful?

[Bricriu]

3 minutes ago, Snowman. said:

West based -NAO creeping into the GEFS...

Typical. One hurdle over come, another crops up. If we are relying on wedges of high pressure to squeeze through gaps to deliver snowfall we are on shaky ground.

[Snowman.]

3 minutes ago, Bricriu said:

Typical. One hurdle over come, another crops up. If we are relying on wedges of high pressure to squeeze through gaps to deliver snowfall we are on shaky ground.

Some do achieve what we want others are just a zonal mess and heights leave greendland leaving a very flat atlantic.

[Penrith Snow]

9 minutes ago, Bristle boy said:

Looks dreadful. Thankfully, that chart is 2 weeks away, so wont happen, as shown.

BANK! Every man for himself  

Andy

[Bricriu]

9 minutes ago, Ols500 said:

How is that dreadful?

I suppose to some it's dreadful if they are having rain, while many other areas a bit further north are having snow.

Edited January 7, 2021 by Bricriu

[bluearmy]

26 minutes ago, Snowman. said:

West based -NAO creeping into the GEFS...

Not on the mean or anoms .....individual runs will of course throw up specific features .... there is a risk as per the 06z op but with the sceuro trough being responsible for bringing the cold towards us rather than an arctic feature dropping south I’m a bit less concerned than I was ....

[Ols500]

14 minutes ago, Bricriu said:

I suppose to some it's dreadful if they are having rain, while many other areas a bit further north are having snow.

Well isn't that just normal lol 

[Griff]

10 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Not on the mean or anoms .....individual runs will of course throw up specific features .... there is a risk as per the 06z op but with the sceuro trough being responsible for bringing the cold towards us rather than an arctic feature dropping south I’m a bit less concerned than I was ....

Yes, expecting all sorts to be offered up before any longer term clarity emerged too. 

[BARRY]

9 minutes ago, Ols500 said:

Well isn't that just normal lol 

It's the norm here. we get used to it 

[Griff]

Quick musing over lunch, rounding up the 144 timeframe... 

Preferences? 

[TSNWK]

16 minutes ago, Griff said:

Quick musing over lunch, rounding up the 144 timeframe... 

Preferences? 

Gem. But it's gem

[mountain shadow]

1 hour ago, Bristle boy said:

Looks dreadful. Thankfully, that chart is 2 weeks away, so wont happen, as shown.

But imagine if the low was 200 miles further South.

[Griff]

17 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

Gem. But it's gem

Given where we were a few days ago... "gfs must be wrong, ecm or ukmo must be right, they'll shift to each other" etc etc. 

Fair to say without any controversy at the moment, who knows?  

Could be the gem.... 

 

My dreamworld scenario involves the above magically transforming heights up to scandi or Arctic... 

Edited January 7, 2021 by Griff

[jules216]

After much excitement with last couple of ECMWF runs and even better EPS with support of GEPS here comes GEFS 6Z with shunting the cold away to western Russia. Could this be the best winter of 240h and worst for 0h? What looked like a near guarantee for cold spell here in central Europe is turning out to be a few day toppler afair. Hope GEFS 6Z proves to be overprogressive and not a trend setter.

[Methuselah]

Oh dear, it's very hard to get all that much enthused by the current weather outlook (not least because of far more important things going on elsewhere, that can be difficult to ignore)... So, I'll have to make do with 06Z ensemble scatter! Quite some spread in temperatures there?

    

Even the NH profiles get perilously close to the Weather System That Cannot Be Named?

    

    

Anyways, only 90 minutes till the 12Z oozes out!

[bluearmy]

46 minutes ago, Griff said:

Given where we were a few days ago... "gfs must be wrong, ecm or ukmo must be right, they'll shift to each other" etc etc. 

Fair to say without any controversy at the moment, who knows?  

Could be the gem.... 

 

My dreamworld scenario involves the above magically transforming heights up to scandi or Arctic... 

if you go back a decade, gem was a good model in the strat iirc ..... times have moved on .....

[icykev]

1 hour ago, Griff said:

Quick musing over lunch, rounding up the 144 timeframe... 

Preferences? 

Mines the ecm Griff, going for the dream as well. Maybe heights over sw Greenland, n Russia and the pole coming together with the low off the s tip of Greenland sliding and heights downstream waiting to build. A Siberian easterly push looks good, sounds good who knows as you say. What would your preference be?

[winterof79]

5 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

if you go back a decade, gem was a good model in the strat iirc ..... times have moved on .....

Let's see if it replicates it on the 12z then I may take more note. 

[Battleground Snow]

I think we are realistically looking past day 12 at the moment for any deep cold from the east. There were signs from the para and GEFS that the cold pool could have been very close at day 10 and 11, but this has backed off somewhat. The MJO is predicted to stay in phase 3 and 4 for a long time which is not helpful, hopefully it can move to the more favourable phases towards the end of the month and we get a further strat warming that can help us out

Having said all of this the SSW that has just happened could still override  this and blocking could still pop up at relatively short notice, with wedges in the right place we can still get colder shots at times. Still alot to watch and definitely not a normal winter set up.

[cheeky_monkey]

more and more cold runs are now showing up in the later runs across N.America.. this could be the first signs of the SSW pushing the cold out into Canada and the US rather than Europe

[Stu_London]

4 minutes ago, cheeky_monkey said:

more and more cold runs are now showing up in the later runs across N.America.. this could be the first signs of the SSW pushing the cold out into Canada and the US rather than Europe

A cold North America will keep the pattern very mobile - we might get some cold incursions and some battleground events but a sustained cold spell is unlikely unless the jet gets dragged so far south that you are into a 1947 type scenario (probably 1000-1 odds).

The good news is we are yet to even reach halfway in terms of meteorological winter and we are even earlier into winter from a thermal perspective so there is plenty of potential for change particularly with the strat vortex remaining under severe pressure. 

[Harsh Climate]

Perputation 11 from GFS 6z esembles. If only! 

 Lot's of eye candy now showing up in the esembles, I think before not too long the ECM and UKMO should produce a belter. I think with the SSW and deep cold atleast going to plunge into scaninavia/russia/eastern europe we have a lot to be optimistic about! 

Edited January 7, 2021 by Harsh Climate

[XtremeUKWeather]

2 minutes ago, Harsh Climate said:

Perputation 11 from GFS 6z esembles. If only! 

 Lot's of eye candy now showing up in the esembles, I think before not too long the ECM and UKMO should produce a belter. I think with the SSW and deep cold atleast going to plunge into scaninavia/russia/eastern europe we have a lot to be optimistic about! 

Lovely positive post and I just wanted to add , if nothing happens in the final third of Jan we always have Feb and March and with more warmings showing on models it’s all to play for

[Blessed Weather]

Sorry guys, I love looking at snowy pics too, but this is not the thread for that and I can't leave them in here or they'll continue to attract replies and encourage others. You can find them over to the Chat thread. Thanks.

[fujita5]

13 minutes ago, Stu_London said:

A cold North America will keep the pattern very mobile - we might get some cold incursions and some battleground events but a sustained cold spell is unlikely unless the jet gets dragged so far south that you are into a 1947 type scenario (probably 1000-1 odds).

The good news is we are yet to even reach halfway in terms of meteorological winter and we are even earlier into winter from a thermal perspective so there is plenty of potential for change particularly with the strat vortex remaining under severe pressure. 

There are additional warmings forecast so the strat vortex will be shifting around and changing shape quite a lot in coming weeks.  If this imprints on to the trop pattern then we'll see the lowest heights and therefore the coldest air moving around also.  I don't think we'll be locked in one pattern for any length of time.