Model output discussion - Jan 3rd onwards

[northwestsnow]

Day 10 850s reveal the core cold well away from Greenland..

Certainly if we do tap into an Easterly it will be a cold one.

Question now is will the cards fall for us as the SSW propagates down into the Trop.

Potentially a fascinating last third of January if the SSW can over ride la Nina..

[Kasim Awan]

2 minutes ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

Hardly any snow by the time it gets to the South ?

Quite a good intensity there, however this is not the favoured outcome.

[snowblind]

6 minutes ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

Hardly any snow by the time it gets to the South ?

There are no warnings for snow anywhere tonight so, obviously, the pros aren't seeing it amounting to anything.

[Griff]

54 minutes ago, That ECM said:

This is quite different from gfs and Ukmo.  Ukmo has the heights to the nw drift east between t120 and t144 where ecm builds them in situ. Interesting. 

I mentioned yesterday that things would start to look more interesting. 

We may not have reached our destination but are on the right tracks... 

Come on everybody, what do these charts remind me of?

(Trendsetter!) 

Edited January 7, 2021 by Griff

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

8 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Day 10 850s reveal the core cold well away from Greenland..

Certainly if we do tap into an Easterly it will be a cold one.

Question now is will the cards fall for us as the SSW propagates down into the Trop.

Potentially a fascinating last third of January if the SSW can over ride la Nina..

We need the low heights near SE Greenland to migrate to the West of Greenland and see heights increase over Griceland before we can tap into anything cold. Also need shortwaves to keep away from West Norway.

Edited January 7, 2021 by prolongedSnowLover

[northwestsnow]

Just now, prolongedSnowLover said:

We need the low heights near SE Greenland to migrate to the West of Greenland and see heights increase over Graceland before we can tap into anything cold. Also need shortwaves to keep away from West Norway.

Oh I dont disagree.

Certainly its going to be a slog to get that bitter cold massing to the NE to move SW ..

Once you see the Azores high pointing to Spain its nearly always going to be a struggle...

We have the joker in the pack ( SSW) and we are going to need a bit of luck.

Fingers crossed.

[carinthian]

Morning all, firstly I bring to your attention the fax chart below. Have you ever seen such a elongated front as that shown on the far right ? Stretches 3 continents ! The chart also highlights the waving polar front between Scandinavia and Greenland. The models seem to be struggling with their outputs due the complexity of the east bound energy flow across the Atlantic with all sorts of outcomes being throughout in a relative short time frame. Pulses of increasingly cold air mass trying to break in to the high pressure zone located near to the British Isles and being sort of repulsed by the warmer flow coming from the SW around the UK block. Just wondering if we are heading for a Mid-month clash of South v North . Now that would be fun and games. One things for sure, Scandinavians soon to turn very cold. As I see it , all to play for.

C

Edited January 7, 2021 by carinthian

[IDO]

JFF the d16 gefs beginning to show some wild NH profiles in line with many of our thoughts that the last third of Jan onwards is when the game moves on:

No instructive value as there is even more noise at that range than usual. But no clear signal for the 0z op (small synoptic cluster) so that is a relief! By the start of next week we should be seeing trends and better clusters? 

As you were; the northerly, a small hiatus as temps slowly recover, and then turn cooler to seasonal...

[northwestsnow]

Matt Hugo tweeting flatter pattern depicted by the 00z runs might not become entrenched...

Ext eps may offer a better idea of the direction of travel?

[Griff]

1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

Matt Hugo tweeting flatter pattern depicted by the 00z runs might not become entrenched...

Ext eps may offer a better idea of the direction of travel?

You got there first!  

[Nick F]

Morning

Only slow or tentative movements in the model output towards a return of colder and blocked scenarios, the operational / parallel runs so far hinting out of the reliable, with a burst of westerlies, albeit, not that strong to get through with no concrete signs yet how long it will last. 

EC over recent det. runs has hinted at the quickest route to a potential change by building heights in the GIN corridor. But recent GFS op and parallel runs have been either uninterested or painfully slow for change, i.e. amplification over N Atlantic / W Europe. 

So why the differences? Looking at the 60N zonal wind for the atmosphere pressure levels, it appears to me that GFS is not downwelling the reversal as far as EC, which maybe perhaps why GFS is not keen on changes in the troposphere in its recent op runs like this morning.

GFS

EC (yesterday) day 6 and day 10

A look at the 00z EPS 9-14 day mean indicating Scandi / E Europe getting rather cold under low heights, UK on the cusp, remember this the mean, so scope that we could tap into this later this month.

So, some good reason for optimism still.

Edited January 7, 2021 by Nick F

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

Morning guys and gals

A quick one on this feature from the North, its making its way south coming into nornern England this afternoon moving south into Midlands this evening petering out all the while, 

It's the one coming in behind this from the northeast that's getting my attention, and it's getting the attention of Carol too on BBC, very cagey but I'm old enough to spot a stand off approach which is down to uncertainty. 

I think this may be a secondary low developing a wave across the front!? 

I think it needs it watching for England and Wales tonight into tomorrow, 

Wondering what was the thoughts on this from the seniors?!! 

Edited January 7, 2021 by Severe Siberian icy blast

[Ali1977]

There’s a lot of positives to take for the next few months for coldies, just hang tight and Winter is coming. This time Europe will be well into the Freezer should the winds turn Easterly 

[sebastiaan1973]

13 minutes ago, Nick F said:

Morning

Only slow or tentative movements in the model output towards a return of colder and blocked scenarios, the operational / parallel runs so far hinting out of the reliable, with a burst of westerlies, albeit, not that strong to get through with no concrete signs yet how long it will last. 

EC over recent det. runs has hinted at the quickest route to a potential change by building heights in the GIN corridor. But recent GFS op and parallel runs have been either uninterested or painfully slow for change, i.e. amplification over N Atlantic / W Europe. 

So why the differences? Looking at the 60N zonal wind for the atmosphere pressure levels, it appears to me that GFS is not downwelling the reversal as far as EC, which maybe perhaps why GFS is not keen on changes in the troposphere in its recent op runs like this morning.

GFS

EC (yesterday) day 6 and day 10

A look at the 00z EPS 9-4 day mean indicating Scandi / E Europe getting rather cold under low heights, UK on the cusp, remember this the mean, so scope that we could tap into this later this month.

 

 

Nick, the GFS charts is for 60N. Please notice this is a difference with the EC charts which show SH and NH. So you should compare 60N for both charts

[sheikhy]

 

57 minutes ago, Severe Siberian icy blast said:

Morning guys and gals

A quick one on this feature from the North, its making its way south coming into nornern England this afternoon moving south into Midlands this evening petering out all the while, 

It's the one coming in behind this from the northeast that's getting my attention, and it's getting the attention of Carol too on BBC, very cagey but I'm old enough to spot a stand off approach which is down to uncertainty. 

I think this may be a secondary low developing a wave across the front!? 

I think it needs it watching for England and Wales tonight into tomorrow, 

Wondering what was the thoughts on this from the seniors?!! 

This is what gives the more widesprewad snowfall from the netwx-sr model?!!

Edited January 7, 2021 by Blessed Weather
Duplicate quote box removed

[Griff]

Out of character for me to look at model impact at short range but a quick rather confusing comparison of precipitation for tomorrow IMBY (because I know everyone loves that here).... 

GFS 2°c with snow

ICON 0°c with sleet 

Not sure that even a pinch of salt or grit will be required. Possibly a misinterpretation from my Windy android app (gives a side by side comparison of GFS, ECM, ICON, METEOBLUE and AROME - the others aren't particularly interested in anything falling from the sky). 

Regardless of lack of snow, the last couple of weeks since Christmas day have been cold, rather colder than average, but slightly frustrating with regards to lingering frost etc. 

[Anthony Burden]

GEM 240 hrs and GFS showing glimpses of Scandinavian high could be the first signal to

tap into some very cold air.High pressure never far away from the U.K. next week 

in the mean time some snow possible in parts of the south tomorrow.Lot’s to stay 

interested in with charts struggling to get ahead of Synoptics.

[Griff]

3 minutes ago, Anthony Burden said:

GEM 240 hrs and GFS showing glimpses of Scandinavian high could be the first signal to

tap into some very cold air.High pressure never far away from the U.K. next week 

in the mean time some snow possible in parts of the south tomorrow.Lot’s to stay 

interested in with charts struggling to get ahead of Synoptics.

Any chance of a chart and a time? Ta

 

[That ECM]

3 minutes ago, Griff said:

Any chance of a chart and a time? Ta

If you mean the snow possibilities then aptly named snowshill hill north Cotswolds is showing light snow from early tomorrow for about 6 hours.

Edited January 7, 2021 by That ECM

[MKN]

2 hours ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

Hardly any snow by the time it gets to the South ?

NMM not to bad either. Id imagine only a few CM at best though for most

 

[Battleground Snow]

A bit disappointing today to lose the trend of the cold pool nearby around 240 on both GFS suites. Hopefully it can return later. There is alot of scatter in the ensembles

Icon EUs take on the snow for Friday, this system does seem to be causing the models a headache with the timing and intensity, looks like the heavier precipitation is now later into Friday. Curiously there is no warnings yet for snow, met office must  also be struggling or they think it won't amount to much at all.

[northwestsnow]

5 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

A bit disappointing today to lose the trend of the cold pool nearby around 240 on both GFS suites. Hopefully it can return later. There is alot of scatter in the ensembles

Icon EUs take on the snow for Friday, this system does seem to be causing the models a headache with the timing and intensity, looks like the heavier precipitation is now later into Friday. Curiously there is no warnings yet for snow, met office must  also be struggling or they think it won't amount to much at all.

That looks very underwhelming south of Manchester ( Wales and west mids aside).

The SSW also needs watching closely, I've read a few bits on twitter suggesting we may well need a second bite at the cherry with chunks of vortex going into the Atlantic and a westerly pattern for the UK.

Hopefully not!

Edited January 7, 2021 by northwestsnow

[bluearmy]

59 minutes ago, Nick F said:

Morning

Only slow or tentative movements in the model output towards a return of colder and blocked scenarios, the operational / parallel runs so far hinting out of the reliable, with a burst of westerlies, albeit, not that strong to get through with no concrete signs yet how long it will last. 

EC over recent det. runs has hinted at the quickest route to a potential change by building heights in the GIN corridor. But recent GFS op and parallel runs have been either uninterested or painfully slow for change, i.e. amplification over N Atlantic / W Europe. 

So why the differences? Looking at the 60N zonal wind for the atmosphere pressure levels, it appears to me that GFS is not downwelling the reversal as far as EC, which maybe perhaps why GFS is not keen on changes in the troposphere in its recent op runs like this morning.

GFS

EC (yesterday) day 6 and day 10

A look at the 00z EPS 9-14 day mean indicating Scandi / E Europe getting rather cold under low heights, UK on the cusp, remember this the mean, so scope that we could tap into this later this month.

So, some good reason for optimism still.

Gfs 00z was downwelling 

it looks to me as though the models are desperate to amplify. For us to go v cold we need that to be a scandi ridge (is that likely given the Asian vortex dropping south) or greeny or griceland. We have a decent upper ridge to play with but missing some retrogression to draw it out of W Europe and bring the sceuro trough west. 
 

there looks to be some ens agreement that the period around the 20th could see that although I think it could easily occur within seven days. 

the models are clearly struggling with the west to east movement of the troughs - it could stay like this for a while ! 

[johnholmes]

My latest using the 500 mb anomaly charts

Thursday 7 Jan

Ec-gfs and both show a similar pattern, quite similar to the past 48-72 hours. The change from end of December in the ridge-trough pattern (meridional) is that end of December they had the uk in a trough now they have uk in a ridge.

Noaa also has this kind of pattern change regarding the trough changing to ridging over the uk. Again the flow over the chart is meridional from west to east, likewise its 8-14 output. Here though, as is often the case, the eastern ridge is less amplified.

http://www2.wetter3.de/Fax/00_ECMWF_ENS_p0_500hPa+144_240.gif

Again the ECMWF set of charts 13-17 Jan show the difference from several days ago. West of the UK was a marked surface ridge, now replaced with troughing, as both the upper and surface ridge are shown pushing east of the UK. The zero isotherm at 850 mb ebbs and flows around the sw of the country.

So we have a meridional pattern on all 3 fairly consistently on the anomaly charts but little sign so far of any colder air coming back. I confess to being unsure of what the outcome will be or indeed when!

I notice as I posted a similar sort of last line from ba

'the models are clearly struggling with the west to east movement of the troughs - it could stay like this for a while ! '

 

ECMWF/GFS DAY 8-10 MEAN 500MB HEIGHT COMPARISON

WWW.METEO.PSU.EDU

Climate Prediction Center - 6-10 Day 500mb Outlook

WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

 

[Day_9]

This mild period is getting shorter and shorter on each run.  Also significant shift to cold by increasing numbers later on in the run.  Snow row maintains local interest this evening.

 

freezing Still FI but trend is your friend, mean and control both call cold, OP has reverted away from it’s accelerated mild.  Does a freezing February await???