South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion January 2021 onwards

[North Downs Snowboarder]

I've just been for a litter pick down the country lanes in my area, I nearly fell over on black ice a few times, these ice warnings are justified.

[Tim Bland]

36 minutes ago, Team Squirrel said:

Usually, I'm so excited by the prospect of snow...but my Dad has his covid vaccination jab on Sunday morning and I want him to get there safely.

Were not talking about deep snow that’s going to close roads, just a dusting and icy stretches on ungritted pavements and roads, so I’m sure you will be fine. Please to hear the news about your dad! 

[If Wishes made Weather]

Surely to have a warning then the expected weather needs to be a sort of minimum percentage away from the average.   Anslight covering of snow and a -3c frost (as forecast for Stortford) is within the parameters of absolutely normal weather in winter.  Why a warning at all.

In July are we to be warned for a dry day at 17c?

[alexisj9]

54 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Euro 4 for tonight and tomorrow shows a bit of snow for some

Well that explains the warning for us, but I'm not sure about west of us. This low is not stable, could be rain sleet snow anywhere. So they've covered anything that could happen it seems. Mean while I'm quite sure ice will be a problem regardless.

[Nick L]

3 minutes ago, If Wishes made Weather said:

Surely to have a warning then the expected weather needs to be a sort of minimum percentage away from the average.   Anslight covering of snow and a -3c frost (as forecast for Stortford) is within the parameters of absolutely normal weather in winter.  Why a warning at all.

In July are we to be warned for a dry day at 17c?

Not sure I agree with this reasoning to be honest. You're highly unlikely to come to harm from a pleasantly warm day, but there is a much higher risk on ice.

It's like saying that on the Great Plains of America, thunderstorms dropping hail the size of tennis balls is a regular occurrence in spring so why the need for warnings? 

I have no issue with an ice warning, but the snow warning for the next 24 hours is misleading and plain wrong.

[Mark wheeler]

 

[East Kent Snow Desert]

19 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:

Well that explains the warning for us, but I'm not sure about west of us. This low is not stable, could be rain sleet snow anywhere. So they've covered anything that could happen it seems. Mean while I'm quite sure ice will be a problem regardless.

Yet the MO forecast summary (Fri-Tues) for the South East does not mention any sleet let alone snow for our area. This was the update at 4am so to then have a warning out a few hours later seems odd to me.  I guess the wording will change this afternoon to reflect an increased risk!   

[NewEra21]

Latest MetO forecast looks more interesting for tomorrow afternoon than Sunday tbh.

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Temp just started to fall away here in the last hour... Reached 7.2c.. strangely there was frost on the roof till about midday.. DP low around 1.6c 

[Tom Quintavalle]

41 minutes ago, NewEra21 said:

Latest MetO forecast looks more interesting for tomorrow afternoon than Sunday tbh.

Below, is a clip of MeteoGroup's version of events over the Weekend, courtesy of Ben Rich but they have the emphasis on Sunday? 

BBC Weather

Regards,

Tom. 

[Dami]

ah Alexa's sunny forecast is winning. My snow symbols are going and nothing but 'a light shower' in the write up on MO. 

Boo hoo.

 

[TommyB]

Just been for a lovely walk in the sunshine really helps to improve the mood.

Currently 5c here in St Leonard's with sunny skies

[Kentspur]

Seems a bit of confusion with the net warnings as far as I'm aware its Sunday thats the main warning for 1-3cms for "most places" South of about Mid Essex and anyway West of here in the region correct me if I'm wrong can't see any down in our little corner before then but could be wrong 

[Coopsy]

Just looking at the charts and there’s possibilities over the next 72hrs from two events though they’re all over the place as to detail. 

Even if it doesn’t amount to much the fact we’re looking at two possible snow events is a bonus. It could be windy and rainy and no chance of snow....small mercies and all.

So the first feature may go too far south. If not will it have enough precip? If it hits and doesnt fizzle out I’d expect a lot of areas to see some settling snow. 

The second feature Sunday into Monday gives another shot at snow. Another few cm’s?

So there’s a possibility some areas will see two separate snow events with accumulation for both. That’s something to be excited about surely? 
 

 

[lawrenk]

Well I’m in the warning area but the MO weather symbols, I know they are notoriously inaccurate, have me down for no precipitation at all over the weekend, never mind snow.

I am, therefore, preparing myself for the risk of experiencing some cloud.

[Biggin]

Some scattered rain /wintry showers crossing our region early evening .

[lottiekent]

The lamppost methodology will be most useful this weekend I think!

A maximum of 7.8c here in the sunshine around 2pm, now falling away slowly - currently 5.7c.

 

Went for a quick walk on my lunch hour and I did notice some small patches of ice where the sun hadn't reached all day, indicating a cold surface temperature

(for the rain showers to fall on over the weekend )

[Wimbledon88]

Certainly nice to see the sun still shining at gone 4pm. 7c just now. 

[TommyB]

It's gone very dark here with some ominous looking clouds coming over from the sea...Temp currently 5.1c

[dubmuffin]

It was a beautiful and quite warm in the sunshine in New Haw earlier, but feels rather cold now I am back in Wallington. Temp 5c and dropping fast, dew point just below freezing, Met office showing one sleet symbol at 3pm on Sunday for me - yipee! I feel slightly more hopeful than that - the clouds out there at the moment could easily produce a little snow shower.

[Mark wheeler]

More distinctive than yesterday’s run on the latest Ukmo . Not sure what the precipitation charts would look like though .

[snowrye]

Well, unbelievably, I can confirm I have cloud, I repeat, I have cloud

[lawrenk]

1 minute ago, snowrye said:

Well, unbelievably, I can confirm I have cloud, I repeat, I have cloud

Please take care out there.

[southbank]

3 minutes ago, Mark wheeler said:

More distinctive than yesterday’s run on the latest Ukmo . Not sure what the precipitation charts would look like though .

we know that if this was rain the precipitation would get worst and heavier as we got closer to the event --------- but as it snow 

[lawrenk]

The MO long ranger seems like quite an upgrade to me, at least for the first half of February. With regards to the second half, I think the MOs current analysis can best be translated as “dunno mate, your guess is as good as mine”.