South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion January 2021 onwards

[Kentspur]

GFS op run now going for minus 7c uppers on a couple of occasions at the weekend (Sunday looks to be coldest still)

[john mac1]

Well I’m booking up for my annual snow fix in Lapland. No marginality to worry about there. Bloody freezing and tones of snow!! Booooom!!!

[Nick L]

1 hour ago, stainesbloke said:

Yes, been pretty depressing but still nearly half of it go, Spring still a long way off

Definitely noticing the days getting longer though. 

[PiscesStar]

6 hours ago, Nick F said:

Wow, we've become so resigned to it never snowing in our area when the models hint it might, understandable given the let downs so far this winter when the models showed promise.

My annoyance with this winter so far, despite me have the fortune of a few brief early morning coverings given my elevation, is the snow hasn't stuck around. 

Yes Nick. Far far too wet but hopefully things about to change for the better 

[NO LONGER POSTING]

1 hour ago, Snowfish2 said:

Yes Nick. Far far too wet but hopefully things about to change for the better 

Not to wet.. Snow can settle on wet ground and I've watched it settle over puddles before... 

It's because we have been the wrong side of marginal.. 

Take last weekend when many got a covering.. I watched from my phone the weather station data here for mine drop from 3c to 1.1c and the DP do the same but lower down to 0.2c 

Had I got down to probably - 0.5dp it would have probably laid on everything.. 

When you are talking about snow 0.5 of a degree can make all the difference 

[Kentspur]

Oh dear this isn't good... Back the Met? BBC has a few sleet and snow symbols still floating around I assume from the ECM

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Icon on board 

GFS on board gives 2 chances now?? 

ECM on board I believe 

Arpege was again but not sure now 

Hit and miss still but the chance is there 

Edited January 22, 2021 by Surrey

[saintkip]

6 minutes ago, Surrey said:

Icon on board 

GFS on board gives 2 chances now?? 

ECM on board I believe 

Arpege was again but not sure now 

Hit and miss still but the chance is there 

I’m lazy you got any charts? Cheers

[lottiekent]

Morning

Currently -0.6c outside, much cooler than forecast (MO was showing a low of 3c still when I looked yesterday evening) so a decent frost has formed.

 

[NO LONGER POSTING]

2 minutes ago, saintkip said:

I’m lazy you got any charts? Cheers

GFS

Second attempt 

 

ECM

ICON 

[Nick F]

8 minutes ago, Surrey said:

Icon on board 

GFS on board gives 2 chances now?? 

ECM on board I believe 

Arpege was again but not sure now 

Hit and miss still but the chance is there 

UKV still not interested in Sunday, snow grazes the south coast but misses most of us

It does bring a few wintry showers east this evening

And some snow showers / flurries tomorrow afternoon

Given all the other models are showing some snow moving east across all of us Sunday, you'd think UKV would fall into line.

[lottiekent]

Thanks @Surrey

Seems to be moving through later now than originally forecast. Not expecting anything much here as all of these charts seem to show mostly rain over Kent anyway. The sussexes, London and surrounding counties seem to do forecast better but it will come down to a nowcast as it did last Sunday again.

[saintkip]

5 minutes ago, Surrey said:

GFS

Second attempt 

 

ECM

ICON 

Cheers, so I assume its moving from west to east. It’s quite a big band seems strange some models show nothing

[NO LONGER POSTING]

13 minutes ago, Nick F said:

UKV still not interested in Sunday, snow grazes the south coast but misses most of us

It does bring a few wintry showers east this evening

And some snow showers / flurries tomorrow afternoon

Given all the other models are showing some snow moving east across all of us Sunday, you'd think UKV would fall into line.

What I expect will happen is if we see today one run drop it such as icon then the rest will follow.. If 3 hold steady again through today then UKV and arpege will find the soloution tomorrow morning 

[stainesbloke]

8 hours ago, Kentspur said:

GFS Parallel model shows heavy snow Saturday night in the SE especially in Kent, instead of Sunday, while GFS op latest 18z run shows mostly the Thames south and westwards including SW England and Wales and Central Southern England Sunday afternoon as previously mentioned 

That GFS op is close to the MetO Fax charts so if they’re correct, it looks like S and W of London stand a reasonable chance of seeing some snow on Sunday. 

[NewEra21]

ECM 00z pretty as you were for the past few days

[stainesbloke]

7 hours ago, Nick L said:

Definitely noticing the days getting longer though. 

Yes, very slowly. The saying “as the days get longer, the cold gets stronger”, does hold some weight, statistically. Think February is still the most likely month to get a wintry spell, (or at least it was when I was growing up). 

[Binsey72]

I’m going to be optimistic about this weekend and go for snow even if it’s just a dusting !! 

Edited January 22, 2021 by Binsey72

[Tim Bland]

Snow chances for our region start tonight in the north of the region...

[Tom Montalbano]

Morning all,

Well will it, won't it? 

Still a lot of volatility in the Model output.

Winter's over..........or is it?  

Francis Wilson (aka Rory Bremner), with a look at the 00z runs:

Now, the real thing, with that classic, February 1991 Forecast:

Can't beat a bit of Francis "fluffy bits" Wilson!!

I stand to be corrected but I think it may have been Francis, who coined the phrase, "Thames Streamer".

And now, Daniel "If you take Granny for a walk in the park, make sure she has an extra jumper on" Corbett. Remember him?:

And finally some  "Bloopers", from BBC Weather Forecasters. Think that's Ian "Fergie" Ferguson, at the start:

 Apologies Malcolm, thought I'd lighten the mood a bit!!

Regards,

Tom. 

Edited January 22, 2021 by TomSE12

[bluebell]

37 minutes ago, stainesbloke said:

Yes, very slowly. The saying “as the days get longer, the cold gets stronger”, does hold some weight, statistically. Think February is still the most likely month to get a wintry spell, (or at least it was when I was growing up). 

Yes I think so too. My birthday is 22ndFeb and I remember it snowing quite a few times growing up, the most alarming when I was having my first driving lesson on my 17th birthday, wasn’t prepared for handling a car in icy conditions..!

[Nick L]

1 minute ago, bluebell said:

Yes I think so too. My birthday is 22ndFeb and I remember it snowing quite a few times growing up, the most alarming when I was having my first driving lesson on my 17th birthday, wasn’t prepared for handling a car in icy conditions..!

Mine is the 27th and I've had more white birthdays than white Christmases!

[NYCSnow]

Nice to have a sunny and frosty morning for a change here in Surbiton, been few and far between this winter. Not too hopeful for snow here this weekend but at least hope lives on for February at least...

[bluebell]

37 minutes ago, Nick L said:

Mine is the 27th and I've had more white birthdays than white Christmases!

Brillant the anecdotal evidence is building!

[Captain Shortwave]

Just a heads up for later today

More of an East Anglia affair but this is being shown on the models.

Arpege tonight