South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion January 2021 onwards

[Sparky68]

40 minutes ago, MAF said:

That'll upset a lot of 'merchant bankers' > 

Large cannabis factory discovered near Bank of England

WWW.BBC.CO.UK

---

The Square Mile's first-ever cannabis factory was found after a tip-off about a "strong smell".

 

"FTSE Shares on a High"

[Zak M]

Squall line passed through and gave me heavy rain and gusty winds at around 11:30pm last night.

The skies cleared about 3 hours later so I started shooting some night-time pictures again.

[Southender]

2 hours ago, NewEra21 said:

As some of you will know, I've been posting the GFS P for the beginning of February for a few days now. And the 00z continues the same trend, let's hope it's consistently right. But only time will tell. But one thing is for sure, these are the charts we want to see for the beginning of and throughout February!

Beautiful charts that would give the whole region a deep covering of snow. Nothing marginal about that. Would be some seriously beefy and prolonged shower trains setting up there.

Shame it's the best part of 2 weeks away though. If we can get that scenario into +96hrs, then we can start to take it seriously.

[Paul Sherman]

3 minutes ago, Southender said:

Beautiful charts that would give the whole region a deep covering of snow. Nothing marginal about that. Would be some seriously beefy and prolonged shower trains setting up there.

Shame it's the best part of 2 weeks away though. If we can get that scenario into +06hrs, then we can start to take it seriously.

I have edited that for you mate for fairness lol

[Southender]

1 hour ago, Paul Sherman said:

Yep as expected Sunday snow going down the $hitter for the SE - never really bought into it anyway so no loss, If no snow Models will be 7 from 7 with misfires which is pretty impressive, surprised GFS has dropped it already to be honest thought that might keep with it until Saturday. As it stands

ICON, Arpege, GFS, Ukmo, UKV all say No Snow

ECM says yes but its record for placement of snow is nothing short of appalling and I would expect it to predict snow in Cape Town at 40c more than the SE Of England.

The Great Snow Hunt Continues

Yep. It's a carbon copy of the slider from the NW a couple of weeks back. No models were interested other than the ECM.

Where did it end up going?.....Ireland>SW>Channel>N.France.

[NO LONGER POSTING]

You couldnt make it up.. 

 

ICON still yes 

Now arpege looks yes 

GFS says no 

 

[Kentspur]

1 hour ago, Paul Sherman said:

Yep as expected Sunday snow going down the $hitter for the SE - never really bought into it anyway so no loss, If no snow Models will be 7 from 7 with misfires which is pretty impressive, surprised GFS has dropped it already to be honest thought that might keep with it until Saturday. As it stands

ICON, Arpege, GFS, Ukmo, UKV all say No Snow

ECM says yes but its record for placement of snow is nothing short of appalling and I would expect it to predict snow in Cape Town at 40c more than the SE Of England.

The Great Snow Hunt Continues

Just as you said this weve got heavy snow symbols now Sunday no doubt it will downgrade again lol

[Froze were the Days]

52 minutes ago, Southender said:

Yep. It's a carbon copy of the slider from the NW a couple of weeks back. No models were interested other than the ECM.

Where did it end up going?.....Ireland>SW>Channel>N.France.

CFS 1 monthly runs have been showing a signal to something like that, 1 run was 1987 like (chortle)...they have been waxing and waning but still there from 1st week in Feb to around mid-month.

[Nick F]

06z EC still keeping the flame alive for Sunday, but agree, the way other models are trending, the low will end up missing the SE and tracking through northern France. EC seems to have this bias in tracking these slider lows too far north.

Edited January 21, 2021 by Nick F

[Matty88]

My monies on GFS for the weekends snow potential for the region - zero. On the plus side at least its looking dry and bright... which is a positive after recent drab! 

[MAF]

1 hour ago, Sparky68 said:

"FTSE Shares on a High"

not now

[MAF]

14 minutes ago, Nick F said:

06z EC still keeping the flame alive for Sunday, but agree, the way other models are trending, the low will end up missing the SE and tracking through northern France. EC seems to have this bias in tracking these slider lows too far north.

13:30 BBC showing the front west-east giving snow for SE. all depends on how quickly it passes through i suppose.

 

[Polaris]

18 minutes ago, Matty88 said:

My monies on GFS for the weekends snow potential for the region - zero. On the plus side at least its looking dry and bright... which is a positive after recent drab! 

Would have to agree. 
 

Ppn will head into France but you can bet ya dollar, if it were mild we would have a soaking wet Sunday. 
 

I agree, a few days rain free is very very needed. 

[Nick F]

9 minutes ago, MAF said:

13:30 BBC showing the front west-east giving snow for SE. all depends on how quickly it passes through i suppose.

 

BBC forecasts based on EC as their data from meteogroup which use EC, so probably why they are showing as such. 

[MAF]

27 minutes ago, Nick F said:

BBC forecasts based on EC as their data from meteogroup which use EC, so probably why they are showing as such. 

 

although the 1400 forecast is saying the same. albeit giving caution that it may head too far south to affect M25 - SE region. as ever, we shall wait and see

[m1chaels]

3 hours ago, MAF said:

That'll upset a lot of 'merchant bankers' > 

Large cannabis factory discovered near Bank of England

WWW.BBC.CO.UK

---

The Square Mile's first-ever cannabis factory was found after a tip-off about a "strong smell".

 

Markets hit a new high today though - I always thought b(w)ankers were more 'Champagne & charlie' types - which might be their only chance of seeing a few flakes of white stuff on Sunday the way the models are going.

[North Downs Snowboarder]

The latest Met Office forecast talks of a potential SE snow event on Friday night for the first time. This is consistent with forecasters pointing out that small features can develop along the jetstream at short notice

 

 

[alexisj9]

What are the uppers and dew point like now over the se, Kent's about to be hit by something from the south. Probably just rain.

 

[TommyB]

Heavy rain showers here, temp 6.8

[kold weather]

I'd personally say the chances of getting anything meaningful for Fri-Sat are probably still fairly slim. Most ensembles and operationals that we have access to aren't really that keen on bringing any snow far enough north into this region except with the outside risk perhaps to far south Kent and maybe Sussex. Just light maybe wintry showers as a trough feature comes eastwards.

The chances are higher for Sunday IF the LP that forms near France isn't too far close to our shores. If it pivots too close to the UK (which would enhance snow risks for Friday-Saturday for the far SE, but not elsewhere in the region probably unless there is a drastic shift) then the chances for Sundays more widespread snow risk will fall.

 

 

Edited January 21, 2021 by kold weather

[Polaris]

Meto text forecast gone from snow on Sunday to dry and cold. 
 

Just watch Meteogroup (BBC) follow suit in future forecasts. 
 

A silver lining is a small break from the relentless rain at least. 

[Bogman]

2 minutes ago, Polaris said:

Meto text forecast gone from snow on Sunday to dry and cold. 
 

Just watch Meteogroup (BBC) follow suit in future forecasts. 
 

A silver lining is a small break from the relentless rain at least. 

Yup, mine too, and the nights are drawing out slightly to boot.

[alexisj9]

Rain in Kent is bring colder temps and due points with it, just not cold enough. Yet anyway., Gone down to DP 3 now.

[Mark wheeler]

17 minutes ago, Polaris said:

Meto text forecast gone from snow on Sunday to dry and cold. 
 

Just watch Meteogroup (BBC) follow suit in future forecasts. 
 

A silver lining is a small break from the relentless rain at least. 

Also sleet and snow showers tomorrow night . Prefer this to what it was showing before this morning.

Edited January 21, 2021 by Mark wheeler

[MAF]

Sorry, but i have to say this.

Since when did a computer generated model dictate how the planet would make the weather?

there are people out there who put balloons up everyday, there are people out there who look at the results of the data generated from current results. 

lets see what Sunday brings, and if its not as forecast then so be it. but one thing for sure, it will be what it will be