South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion January 2021 onwards

[alexisj9]

Squall nearly here now, as I thought earlier, it's run a couple of hours early. Been so windy I hope it doesn't increase once the front comes through.

[Sno' problem]

The rain seems to be turning to sleety snow on the latest webcam image from the A40:

Camera 827 Refresh in 2:21
A40 Western Ave/Long Lane 

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[Sparky68]

Strange Winter so far 10c yesterday morning , 3c today. 

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Well Sundays snow risk still there 

GFS ECM and icon all say yes.. 

 

Arpege did but has now dropped it.. 

 

I think we will begin to firm up details on tomorrow afternoon and Saturday morning runs.. 

GFS has been very consistent with this feature 

[Kentspur]

30 minutes ago, Surrey said:

Well Sundays snow risk still there 

GFS ECM and icon all say yes.. 

 

Arpege did but has now dropped it.. 

 

I think we will begin to firm up details on tomorrow afternoon and Saturday morning runs.. 

GFS has been very consistent with this feature 

I don't like the fact Arpege has dropped it not a good sign if Icon follows suit then its definite alarm bells is there a link to UKv as that's my other go to model?

[bluearmy]

2 minutes ago, Kentspur said:

I don't like the fact Arpege has dropped it not a good sign if Icon follows suit then its definite alarm bells is there a link to UKv as that's my other go to model?

Gem hasn’t ever liked it and the gfs para also not keen last couple runs. Showing on the updated fax as an occlusion crossing west to east.  The automated metoffice model not having it either. Could end up as a small trough which is hit and miss (more miss)  for the regions  or could stay as an organised band of snow/sleet. Best we could hope for from it would be 2/5 cms I think and as ever, moreso at elevation. 

Was hoping that the models would firm up on it rather than split away ......

[Kentspur]

How's this from GFS 0z ensembles showing a mean of minus 7c upper air temps, some tasty snow spikes, and max temp this weekend barely making 3c

[NewEra21]

I feel like a broken record, but 00z ECM still going for it on Sunday

[Dami]

11 hours ago, jasonuk said:

Oooh get you with your En suite. Well i can tell its getting blowy as its whipping through our poor quality windows into the bedroom

Tis a luxury. It's not a posh one, just big enough for the shower and a loo. The vent gets quite noisy in wind. 

 

[Polaris]

Heavy snow here courtesy of this narrow band moving over me.  
 

nice suprise

 

 

[Eagle Eye]

Morning Everyone

A Connective day here. 

[Sparky68]

24 minutes ago, Polaris said:

Heavy snow here courtesy of this narrow band moving over me.  
 

nice suprise

 

 

Think the edge of that is hitting the Factory in MK

[Sparky68]

Got really cold here

[Tom Montalbano]

Morning all,

Hope yourselves and your Families, are well.

Just visited the Model Thread and now feel like I need, a course of Counselling. 

The hysteria, is up a notch again this Morning.

1 hour ago, Kentspur said:

I don't like the fact Arpege has dropped it not a good sign if Icon follows suit then its definite alarm bells is there a link to UKv as that's my other go to model?

Hi Ks,

Don't have a link to the UKv Model. But here are a couple of grabs from the 00z Icon Run, for you:

A disturbance runs across the South of the U.K. on Sunday Eve, which could give a little Snow especially over high ground.

     Ppn Type 00z  Mon.25th (t96)

Upper Air Temps of around -6c around our Region, would be supportive of some Snow.

       850hPa  00z  Mon.25th (t96)

The Met Office have an Occlusion about to clear our Region, some 12 hours earlier. The 528 Dam is South of our Region, which would suggest some Wintriness is likely, especially over high ground.

     METO FAX 12z Sun. 24th (t84)

Longer term, if I may be able to "cherry pick" a chart from the 00z Model Runs, it would have to be this one:

        GEM 00z Sun. 31st (t240)

I know, it's Day 10 again but an area of positive heights starting to build over Norway.

Regards,

Tom. 

[TommyB]

Good morning all,

Currently 6.8c in St Leonards , patchy cloud and some blue skies which is so lovely to see!

Bit of a wild night, jealous to see the snow from other areas, looked amazing.

Have a good day

[Southender]

Mad scenes in the NW last night. 2 inches of rain, then turning to 4 inches of snow in some places. Now the thaw and very dangerous flood situation for many.

[NewEra21]

As some of you will know, I've been posting the GFS P for the beginning of February for a few days now. And the 00z continues the same trend, let's hope it's consistently right. But only time will tell. But one thing is for sure, these are the charts we want to see for the beginning of and throughout February!

[LightningLover]

Lowest air pressure I recorded last night in Bexhill was 975.04mb, at 23:33. Currently at 987.71mb.
 

Just testing out a nifty new live barometer app I stumbled upon!

[BLS]

Nice to be back after a few days away! Hope everyone is well !

Good to see some models still going for the white stuff on Saturday/Sunday but I’m really not going to get my hopes up. February may hopefully be more lucky for some of us fingers crossed.

How far down did the snow make it yesterday seems it was further than first thought ?

[snowking]

2 hours ago, Polaris said:

Heavy snow here courtesy of this narrow band moving over me.  
 

nice suprise

 

 

I swear Bedford so far has been the worst place I've lived for snow - it always manages to circle around here

Here's to hoping Sunday can break the trend - unfortunately not liking the 6z GFS in this regard

Edited January 21, 2021 by snowking

[jamesgold]

Matt Taylor on the BBC just there stressed caution over the placement of snow on Sunday, but seemed pretty bullish about chances of a few cm at least somewhere 

[Paul Sherman]

Yep as expected Sunday snow going down the $hitter for the SE - never really bought into it anyway so no loss, If no snow Models will be 7 from 7 with misfires which is pretty impressive, surprised GFS has dropped it already to be honest thought that might keep with it until Saturday. As it stands

ICON, Arpege, GFS, Ukmo, UKV all say No Snow

ECM says yes but its record for placement of snow is nothing short of appalling and I would expect it to predict snow in Cape Town at 40c more than the SE Of England.

The Great Snow Hunt Continues

[Bogman]

4 minutes ago, Paul Sherman said:

Yep as expected Sunday snow going down the $hitter for the SE - never really bought into it anyway so no loss, If no snow Models will be 7 from 7 with misfires which is pretty impressive, surprised GFS has dropped it already to be honest thought that might keep with it until Saturday. As it stands

ICON, Arpege, GFS, Ukmo, UKV all say No Snow

ECM says yes but its record for placement of snow is nothing short of appalling and I would expect it to predict snow in Cape Town at 40c more than the SE Of England.

The Great Snow Hunt Continues

[MAF]

6 minutes ago, Paul Sherman said:

Yep as expected Sunday snow going down the $hitter for the SE - never really bought into it anyway so no loss, If no snow Models will be 7 from 7 with misfires which is pretty impressive, surprised GFS has dropped it already to be honest thought that might keep with it until Saturday. As it stands

ICON, Arpege, GFS, Ukmo, UKV all say No Snow

ECM says yes but its record for placement of snow is nothing short of appalling and I would expect it to predict snow in Cape Town at 40c more than the SE Of England.

The Great Snow Hunt Continues

maybe they are all kidding us and we will get a ton of snow .... not

[MAF]

That'll upset a lot of 'merchant bankers' > 

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