Model output discussion - into the last third of January

[Cheshire Freeze]

Also, one thing to note is we could have some more flooding issues this week as the frontal boundary looks to be closer than was showing just a day or two back. GFS has 100mm of rain by next Sunday across parts of Wales and NW England. Both the UKMO and GFS show the colder air never really leaves Scotland-

You can see the boundary here on the precipitation chart

Edited January 23, 2021 by CreweCold

[Penrith Snow]

If this trend continues there will be no mild spell next week!

Overnight GFS has Scotland in mild air for one day before  cold air returns while UKMO has the cold in Scotland almost continuous with plenty of snow to go with it.

Bearing in mind the strength of the Iberian High the cold air (which intensifies to our north) is very resilient.

Further out GFS has us in some kind of weird very cold zonality with cold lows crossing the Country, boring it ain't!

Andy

[Stu_London]

GFS op plays with another easterly scenario at the end of FI

Not overly cold (uppers), at least to start with, but looks a robust block that would be very difficult to shift and with a trough dropping down from the arctic in the closing frames it would get progressively colder. 

Looks the type of block to hold steady for around a fortnight at least.

Details will change but, trend your friend and all that. Ensembles will be interesting. 

Edited January 23, 2021 by Stu_London

[SLEETY]

Awesome gfs parallel with another frigid easterly, nearly getting the minus 20 line crossing the North Sea! 

It's been consistent in wanting to bring this easterly into the UK, but need it to make it to the reliable timeframe, which is about 96 hours when Siberian Easterlies are concerned, won't be ordering a new sledge, just yet... 

 

[Battleground Snow]

This is how the OP finished (top image)

About half of the ensembles produce significant Greenland or scandi blocking. I've attached a few examples.

 

[Griff]

10 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

Awesome gfs parallel with another frigid easterly, nearly getting the minus 20 line crossing the North Sea! 

It's been consistent in wanting to bring this easterly into the UK, but need it to make it to the reliable timeframe, which is about 96 hours when Siberian Easterlies are concerned, won't be ordering a new sledge, just yet... 

 

WWW.METEOCIEL.FR

---

Meteociel propose des cartes de prévisions du modèle americain GFS parallèle

Which website I can only see Thursday as the last run available? 

[Griff]

Gem... Well at least Atlantic looks a bit less fierce in FI? 

[Chiltern_Blizzard]

Looking at snow for this weekend. ICON hopefully giving a good indication. Some opportunities in SE today.

Followed up more opportunities on Sunday from SW as it seems to reach northern home counties and then drop back down to South Coast.

Further chances on Monday as well as a another band of rain moves south east. 

Some higher areas round my way on top of chilterns etc... could get some great accumulations. It's been a hard winter for us, missing out on marginal events previously.

[Jordan S]

There is quite a bit going on during the next couple of days of course.. with some interest today and tomorrow. 

Showers moving into the Midlands then into parts of east Anglia and perhaps southeast England during the afternoon/evening and these will be falling as sleet and snow a light covering is possible in a few spots.

Gem..

Icon..

Then for tomorrow..

The models have been varied in terms of the position and track of the low for the south during tomorrow but they are relatively similar now.. there is still small differences in track though.

So low pressure moves southeast then perhaps east along southern parts of England with a band of rain, sleet and snow through ireland at first then into Wales, southwest England and parts of southern England mostly rain and sleet in the far southwest and along the coast but snow inland..

Gem..

Gfs..

The band of snow possibly becoming very slow moving for a time in some areas of England which could lead to quite significant snow where this takes place, an area from southeast wales east towards London the zone that looks to be where the highest accumulations may be from this scenario..

Snow falling to low levels with 1-3cm's quite widely perhaps 5-10cm on higher ground over the Chilterns for example.. but where the band of snow slows down before moving back south there could be upto around 5-8cm to more lower levels locally.

As Crewecold mentioned more flooding issues are possible next week.

Milder air comes in across much of England and Wales then Scotland from Tuesday and probably remaining milder over England and wales, but colder air to the north of Scotland still looks like it may return southwards later next week here with again the chance of low pressure systems being pushed on a more southerly track further south across England and Wales.

Edited January 23, 2021 by jordan smith

[Griff]

Feet firmly on the ground this morning... 

ECM 192

 

[Battleground Snow]

Weak Iceland wedge is enough to bring a North easterly in at 192 on the ECM

 

[Griff]

4 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

Weak Iceland wedge is enough to bring a North easterly in at 192 on the ECM

 

Counting down for now, but in any case Iberian heights

[Griff]

Well this is nice

[That ECM]

Day 9. Ecm.

[That ECM]

Output is picking up a signal for pressure rise to north/north east/north west.

[Griff]

Bella! 

[Griff]

3 minutes ago, That ECM said:

Output is picking up a signal for pressure rise to north/north east/north west.

Funnily enough the gem toyed with this a couple of days ago... 

[Griff]

Arpege 

[Griff]

Arome

[Griff]

FYI models, apps, pinecones and tea leaves all showing a wide variety of wintry precipitation tomorrow IMBY. 

Quite a few are frustrating 0°c and rain/sleet. Some are more promising but not much accumulation. 

Edited January 23, 2021 by Griff

[SLEETY]

1 hour ago, Griff said:

WWW.METEOCIEL.FR

---

Meteociel propose des cartes de prévisions du modèle americain GFS parallèle

Which website I can only see Thursday as the last run available? 

ohh just noticed that,why is it still showing an old run,event though it was amazing lol

ECM best run of the season.uk about to go into the freezer

[Gowon]

1 hour ago, SLEETY said:

Awesome gfs parallel with another frigid easterly, nearly getting the minus 20 line crossing the North Sea! 

It's been consistent in wanting to bring this easterly into the UK, but need it to make it to the reliable timeframe, which is about 96 hours when Siberian Easterlies are concerned, won't be ordering a new sledge, just yet... 

 

That's Thursdays' run 

 

[northwestsnow]

Yes colder air now looks favourite to come back after a short milder interlude...

Hopefully as ssts lower further less moderation involved ..

 

[Chesil View]

Best ECM run this winter. Not based as is often the case on over amplification but a simple resurgence of the cold air from the north and the transition starts at 168 rather than 240. Perhaps we're gradually getting there.

[nick sussex]

Interesting overnight developments especially in the ECM with that weak high pressure cell setting up to the north day 8 into 10 . 

However before the bunting and mariachi band are booked to welcome that colder air from the ne I’d urge some caution as the set up is  complex and the evolution has to overcome quite a few hurdles .

Earlier the chopping and changing regarding when the milder conditions arrive continues .

Especially for the north the ensemble spread continues regarding how far north that milder air gets .