Model output discussion - into the last third of January

[Paul]

A fresh thread as we head into the final third of January 2021. There's a fair bit happening this week, including Storm Christoph with heavy rain, flooding, gales and snow all on the nearer term agenda. Please take a look at the Christoph thread for more chat about all of that.

Model thread rules of engagement!
As usual, please keep it to the models in this thread, and keep it friendly and respectful of other people's views.

• If your post is discussing the model output, then it's fine in this thread
• If your post is mostly not about the models, briefly mentioning a model by name or putting a chart in there does not make it model discussion - the best place for this sort of thing is the winter chat thread.
• Please use the Met Office thread to discuss their outlooks.
• A local slant is ok as many people prefer to look at the models with a view to their local conditions
• Local 'will it snow type' posts, or local forecast chat are not suited to the model thread though, the best place for these sorts of posts is the regional area

The stratosphere is a bit talking point at the moment, for more info and in depth discussion around that, please take a look at the Stratosphere and Polar Vortex watch thread.

Model Output And Charts On Netweather:
UKV (Extra subscribers)
GFS
GEFS Ensembles
ECMWF
ECMWF EPS
NetWx-SR (3km)
NetWx-MR (9km)
Met Office (UKMO)
Fax
GEM
GFS Hourly

Model Comparison
Golbal Jetstream
Stratosphere

[Mr Frost]

@sheikhy Thursday threat of wintry potential is still there - higher ground the better for areas further South.

As always best thing to do is radar watching/looking out the window on the day! 

ECM for midnight on Thursday:

 

UKV for the same timeframe:

 

One proper snowfall warning out at the moment for all that.

 

UKV for 06:00 on Thursday:

 

Wintry showers for many through the rest of Thursday and Friday.

Obviously rainfall/flooding will be the big issue today through to early morning Thursday as per all the current warnings down South - hopefully not as bad as forecast for certain areas.

All the best to you all.

Edited January 19, 2021 by Mr Frost

[Tim Bland]

GEM and ECM look fairly similar for the possible snow on Sat / Sun. 

[winterof79]

Who the heck knows

Harmonie

Arpege

Nmm

Euro4

[Jordan S]

Morning..

you can see how the rain intensifies for wales and northern England during tomorrow, a big temperature contrast North and south of this.

rainfall totals look like being considerably higher than the 80mm I mentioned..  Atleast 130-160mm altogether for parts of wales and northwest England.. the arpege for example going with around 200mm

a significant low pressure area then forms with much colder air being pulled into the front moving through wales then England later Wednesday into early Thursday, winds south to southwest ahead of the front and west to then northwesterly behind with the possible formation of a squally band of rain and with colder air moving into this sleet and snow perhaps falling for a short time in parts of northern England..

Sleet, snow showers and longer spells of snow still likely for scotland later tomorrow into Thursday some of it heavy as it moves into most likely parts of the south and east of scotland Thursday before moving away Friday..  perhaps 15-25cm on hills 5-10cm to lower levels this easing Friday with snow showers inland during friday.

 
Still the possibility of a low moving through central or southern parts during the weekend bringing rain and possibly snow on its northern part although some uncertainty atm and the other area of focus is on wintry showers troughs may form within the flow bringing more lengthy rain, sleet and snow further southeast during the weekend.

Gfs..

Gem..

 

Gfs jetstream forecast for the weekend..

Going to be a cold and frosty weekend for many especially scotland where temperatures may go as low as -10c in some of the coldest spots.

Into next week the jet stream running through southern parts at times.. a band of rain likely moving into the west on Monday and perhaps into Tuesday with snow on the leading edge for Scotland possibly northern England, elsewhere rain clears away, but whether this moves right through many parts with the above outcome which is the most likely one or will it less likely slow and perhaps slip southeast giving central and perhaps northern parts some snow will of course be resolved in the next few days.. but it moves through along with milder temperatures.. colder air may to stay close to Scotland and there's a possibility this may head southwest at times later on next week with further frontal systems possibly being blocked and deflected southeast of here which would increase the likelihood of snow in northern parts of England and Scotland on the northern edge of these but also increase the chance elsewhere..

Gfs jetstream forecast Early next week..

Anyway next week low pressure is the main theme with Scotland most likely to be on the northern side of these lows and therefore further snow possibilities particularly hills.

Edited January 19, 2021 by jordan smith

[Badgers01]

The Arpege has the highest rainfall in areas a bit different from the metro warnings areas ? Not sure if it is the best for rainfall at high resolution?

[bluearmy]

Ec at day 9/10 likely to be sharper on the ridge just west of the U.K. with colder air adverted south .... 

[bluearmy]

Ec at day 9/10 likely to be sharper on the ridge just west of the U.K. with colder air adverted south .... 

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

Ec at day 9/10 likely to be sharper on the ridge just west of the U.K. with colder air adverted south .... 

All eyes on mjo Nick?

I posted last night about this but not sure where we are right now.( work constraints).

 

[Froze were the Days]

Continual low pressure/shortwaves off the coast of Norway on the ecm 0z and other runs...something I've been alluding to for the last few weeks, warm SST's in relation to the landmass? this can't help as regards to the UK cold.

Should add how similar day 10 is to last night...not often you get that at that range.

Edited January 19, 2021 by Froze were the Days

[Vikos]

Just some eyecandy to lighten up your day

[Methuselah]

Looking like Thursday will be blowy and showery, with temps of something like 7C... Since when did 7C, in January, start being referred-to as 'wintry'? But 'horrible' sounds okay!

    

[Froze were the Days]

A very long shot being the CFS (monthly) but noticed a theme on several runs of late around mid-Feb or just before for blocking either by Scandi Hi or on this occasion a robust GH with continental influence, the sort of charts we hoped for about now but gfs led us up the path!

Now I've mentioned this no doubt the signal will disappear! we can all live in hope.

 

Edited January 19, 2021 by Froze were the Days

[Scandinavian High.]

43 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Ec at day 9/10 likely to be sharper on the ridge just west of the U.K. with colder air adverted south .... 

I’m hoping air is colder then what we have had lately over uk  Especially south of uk.

[Ali1977]

 A much better run this one, the Jet digging south leaving much of the East and North east in cold air. Slider chance here.

[Ali1977]

2 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

 A much better run this one, the Jet digging south leaving much of the East and North east in cold air. Slider chance here.

A great set up for Scottish ski resorts, let’s hope COVID relaxes by March/April and they make some cash this year!! 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Aye, better this one, Tuesday looking interesting battle

[ScottSnow]

Just watching the 06z roll out.

We have been unlucky so far this winter. The early part it was the Russian High stopping the cold now it is the high to our south the Azores High which is preventing the cold.

There are signs that we will see lower pressure to our south but at the moment that’s all they are. At the minute we are in kind of no mans land between the cold to our north and the warmth to the south.

[carinthian]

Morning all, just an update . That wave now shown on GFS at the base of the upper trough is being flagged up with snow tracking potential especially for the Northern Alp this coming weekend.  Of course with-in the 96 hour range a slight adjustment to the north would put Southern England in the lower cat snow watch.  Our fine mesh model needs 48 hours to provide a higher percentage prediction rate but a development to watch with interest over the coming days for upgrades or down grades. Longer term , post 144t the team seem to think UKMO may be heading for some kind of short wave undercut against the cold getting established over the British Isles. Any chance of a more prolonged snowy spells rest on developments to the NW ( in their view ) with less progression. All very interesting but rain in the North of England a big feature and concern for the next 48 hours.

C

[Methuselah]

Even Day 10's losing its winter plumage:   

 

[sebastiaan1973]

Do we see in the first signs of the developments of the MJO/SSW? Early days tough. We have to wait and see.

[sebastiaan1973]

There is support by EC46. Especially after 8 February. And from CFS latest run. We all know how creative nature is in spoiling our winter weather, but there seems to be an opportunity. We have to wait and see.

Extended 2-dimensional PDF

APPS.ECMWF.INT

---

Extended-range forecast of the NAO and blocking circulation patterns associated with high-impact temperature anomalies over Europe. At extended range the day-to-day trajectories are affected by substantial...

Intresting comment

 

Edited January 19, 2021 by sebastiaan1973

[Nigerian Prince]

 Quite a big change with the Ecm with in 24 hours, there are more likely to be more changes at short notice with this set up. so it is always best to think the output will change  quickly from day to day, and not take the output beyond 144 too seriously, as is shown below.

Location Battersea London Gender Male.

[Matt H]

2 hours ago, Froze were the Days said:

A very long shot being the CFS (monthly) but noticed a theme on several runs of late around mid-Feb or just before for blocking either by Scandi Hi or on this occasion a robust GH with continental influence, the sort of charts we hoped for about now but gfs led us up the path!

Now I've mentioned this no doubt the signal will disappear! we can all live in hope.

 

Interesting, I’ve also been monitoring the extended GFS control runs recently and there has been a relatively consistent signal for northern blocking to re-establish itself by mid-February. This run is from yesterday and I’m still waiting to see today’s. Of course it may still come to nothing but it’s something to watch nonetheless.

Edited January 19, 2021 by Frosty Winter

[Battleground Snow]

Something to look at until the 12z rolls. Pert 9

GEFS trending down into February, but nothing notable yet.

Edited January 19, 2021 by Battleground Snow