Model output discussion - into the last third of January

[sebastiaan1973]

 

[IDO]

2 minutes ago, Uncertainy said:

@IDOI appreciate your objectivity and your methodology, these charts will be moving into your interest range over the coming days  but what’s your take on the extended situation? the GEFS have been reasonably consistent towards the back end and are beginning to look a bit like the 46 weeks  2 and 3. 

Post-d10 remains an open for me. I am awaiting the MJO puzzle to be resolved and for models to lock onto something with a bit more consistency. Too many chasing lost causes have left me hesitant to jump on operational FI blocking. Nice to see ecm and gef ops rolling the dice at last for northern blocking even if it is outside mean verification for the moment.

10 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

To clarify - what day 11 chart do you want to see?  If the eps, have you checked the ec website to see if anything is freely available on that?  There is so much more than used to be the case 

Thanks. I will have a look. I am not a fan of anomaly charts so hopefully mean 500hPa/850s.

 

52 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

Yes so all in la la land at present. 

La la land is subjective and we can all choose to draw that line where we feel it is our prerogative. No right or wrong in it if it is accompanied by a quick explanation!

[Tim Bland]

GFS quite widespread with the snow tomorrow in the south 

[Frosty.]

Just a quickie, this Gfs 0z chart is pretty much what a successful SSW would look like for the u k...I know it’s a ridiculous timeframe and that there is plenty of wintry potential on the various 0z output before T+384 hours but I just wanted to show it.  ️ 
 

 

[MJB]

2 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

Just a quickie, this Gfs 0z chart is pretty much what a successful SSW would look like for the u k...I know it’s a ridiculous timeframe and that there is plenty of wintry potential on the various 0z output before T+384 hours but I just wanted to show it.  ️ 
 

 

Trouble with that set up , we will again go back to discussing 850's 

[bluearmy]

26 minutes ago, IDO said:

 

Thanks. I will have a look. I am not a fan of anomaly charts so hopefully mean 500hPa/850s.

 

Looks like only slp goes out to day 15 .......least informative parameter as will generally show a mean trending to climatology 

[MJB]

90 h the milder weather is with us

By 186h colder weather is pushing back

[Battleground Snow]

ECM and GFS at 192... Not a million miles apart.

 

[bluearmy]

06z with a better Atlantic profile for sliding/disrupting trough at day 8/9

[chris55]

Could be some more snowfalls in the mid term, especially in the north, with colder air digging back down around the Low pressure systems with wedges of high pressure from the north.

UKMO-GFS-ECM heading into next weekend.

 

 

[MJB]

Last day of January 

Edited January 23, 2021 by MJB

[Tim Bland]

Warm up is shrinking by the day. By next weekend we have another cold shot...then we await something more substantial from the east

[bluearmy]

16 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

06z with a better Atlantic profile for sliding/disrupting trough at day 8/9

curse of the commentary......

[IDO]

d16 gefs mean spread says all you need to know about what this model knows, uncertainty starts after d10:

We have a Pacific ridge>high, a wedge of heights towards the Arctic and the synchronicity  between an euro or azores plume via the Iberian breaking wave(s). It is going to take a while for the models to pin down the upcoming pattern for the UK let alone the NH?

[MJB]

5 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

curse of the commentary......

LOL not the best is it ? but as you know we will never get eye candy with each run 

[Chiltern_Blizzard]

1 hour ago, Tim Bland said:

GFS quite widespread with the snow tomorrow in the south 

Would take that! Still seems lots of flux from ICON, Arpege and Harmonie are all different. The first two showing the rain band not pushing as far inland. The latter shows it much further wast and then a stall and sink back south. 

Radar watching for sure.

[feb1991blizzard]

7 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

curse of the commentary......

just delayed.......

[Methuselah]

Nailed at 312... -10C uppers could hit the Northern Isles -- and parts of Sutherland!

    

[Captain Shortwave]

The second half of next week looks pretty wet, but how things evolve looks complicated. There does appear to be a barrier of higher heights that keeps low pressure on a more southerly track (Despite heights over Iberia).

The UKMO probably the most stark and it is interesting to see these little areas of higher heights appearing at even the 4 day range.

 

Note the nose of warm air pushing north west away from the Iberian high. This splits the jet stream and forces low pressure further south.

 

This gets us closer towards a scenario where cold air from the north could push southwards behind one of these Atlantic lows. The 06z and ECM try something similar later on. Whatever happens a warm front will push through during Tuesday/Wednesday but after that.... I am really not sure, but watch out for any consistency on a developing wedge of heights to the north as this could change our fortunes as a fairly short timeframe.

[Tim Bland]

Shannon what’s her face at play here. 00z Vs 06z...

[matty40s]

2 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Shannon what’s her face at play here. 00z Vs 06z...

 

 

The Stroppy one.

[username home]

so if i'm reading this thread right...

cold this weekend (with snow )and then milder from tuesday for a few days until it cools down again into feb?

[MJB]

Easterly en route from the GFS Control

[IDO]

26 minutes ago, username home said:

so if i'm reading this thread right...

cold this weekend (with snow )and then milder from tuesday for a few days until it cools down again into feb?

Yep. Next 8-days on the gefs for 2m temps London and Manchester:

Standard Uk weather for the next 7-days then likely getting colder from the north for a few days (subject to change from d10).

[Mike Poole]

HARMONIE 6z take on tomorrow’s snow:

An area in central southern England might benefit from a longer period of snow due to that pivot towards the end, which fits with the detail of the MO warning.